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Old 04-01-2020, 12:38 PM
 
3,145 posts, read 2,669,781 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vision33r View Post
The more I read about how each country is handling the virus the more I believe we should go with the Netherlands approach of herd immunity. They are not implementing a lockdown, they are asking people to go out but use precautions and safe hygiene. This will ensure people will slowly get the virus as a whole. People will get sick but hopefully it's the ones that recover that will give people a bit of less active virus to adapt their immune system to.

The way China and the rest are going about will only work if everyone locks down for several months until the infected are treated and released without any infected people with active virus spreading. That isn't going to work in the long run. There will be outbreaks again and again.
I agree. This will not end until we have all have antibodies. That means 18-24 realistic months for a lockdown until we get a vaccine. Or 1-2 months of business as usual and catastrophic virus activity until we're all either recovered or dead.

Of course, since the leadership has flip flopped from it's just a flu to we all have to hunker down, it's going to be hard, or impossible, to sell the idea we should all get infected. Whole states will balk, neighbor will turn against neighbor. It is going to be a ****storm.

I think, in the absence of any semblance of a plan, everyone will be so fed up with lockdown by May, and so depressed that virus activity levels off at some twilight zone number: too high to open anything, too low to create herd immunity for years, that the majority of people will just go along with letting the virus have it's way with us, government (national, state, and local) will throw up their hands and say "quarantine if you want/need to".
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Old 04-01-2020, 01:53 PM
 
14,248 posts, read 11,550,945 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wac_432 View Post
I think, in the absence of any semblance of a plan, everyone will be so fed up with lockdown by May, and so depressed that virus activity levels off at some twilight zone number: too high to open anything, too low to create herd immunity for years, that the majority of people will just go along with letting the virus have it's way with us, government (national, state, and local) will throw up their hands and say "quarantine if you want/need to".
I agree that this is looking like the most likely scenario.
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Old 04-01-2020, 02:41 PM
 
Location: State of Transition
102,110 posts, read 107,301,106 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wac_432 View Post
Everyone seems to be laser-focused on getting over the current hump, holding fatalities down below a quarter-million, and "opening back up" the nation in May, June, or July, depending on your level of optimism. At that point, 97% of the population will still be susceptible. My question, and I can't find this addressed anywhere, is:

"After" social distancing ends, how will June-July be any different from March-April?

I see a few pathways forward. Some of them require strong leadership, some we are just likely to stumble into.

1. A miracle cure/vaccine/therapy becomes available by June and we all praise the FSM for delivering us from COVID-19. This seems the least likely, but let's all pray for it.
Death toll: Thousands. Instant economic recovery.

2. Everybody bears with it for the duration of the 1st lockdown and we obtain a few more masks, a few more tests, and a few more respirators in the current ad-hoc fashion through June. Some areas reduce or remove lockdowns. We try playing whack-a-mole with insufficient resources. The virus likely explodes again and we go through the whole lockdown cycle a second/third/fourth time, maybe with a few less deaths, until the a vaccine is completed or everyone has been infected.
Death toll: Maybe shy of a million in the end? Severe economic damage.

3. We fracture into partisan factions partway through the lockdown with the leadership flip-flopping between tightening lockdown restrictions, or just letting the virus run riot. A bend in the curve is declared victory and people drink the kool-aid or don't, depending on their politcal alignment and local government ordinances.
Death toll: Millions. Social, Political, and Economic crisis.

4. We start some sort of Pearl Harbor Pacific Fleet reconstruction project NOW. Billions of masks/gloves/ppe, hundreds of millions of test kits are manufactured and distributed/mandated to the general public. Before they are allowed to reopen, all gathering places must post Taiwan-style guards with temperatures scanners, hand sanitizer, and masks that people must wear before entering the school, bank, grocery store, etc. Massive temporary hiring of civil servants on a Political Campaign + Census-level scale. They test nearly EVERYONE. They call, text, email, post flyers, and physically track down every single person who came into contact with anyone who tests positive, test them, serve them notice to quarantine, and retest them again at the end of quarantine.
Death Toll: Sub-0.25M, Economic recovery minus the cost of the giant project. Surely it CAN'T be more than the 8 Trillion dollar stimulus/recovery/etc packages that we're already implementing!

So what is the plan? Are we just going to meander into 2 or 3? Does the government have a realistic long-term approach with which we can all agree to get on board?
At least a couple of labs are working on a vaccine, one is ready to start testing, and says a vaccine will be ready in about 14 months.

What hasn't been planned for yet, is how to release the vaccine, and deal with the stampedes of people wanting it. Also, there have been indications, that immunity doesn't last long. So, then what? And the bug has already mutated. How many vaccines would be needed?

There have been industry volunteers, in the absence of federal leadership, to collaborate to retool and produce the needed equipment and supplies, but they say they won't be read with products to sell until sometime in June.

The bolded is what they were already supposed to be doing, since last January/early February. Coverage has been spotty, and doctors in ER testing facilities have been fired for blowing the whistle on the laxity in follow up, and on the shortage of masks for ER staff.
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Old 04-01-2020, 02:43 PM
 
Location: State of Transition
102,110 posts, read 107,301,106 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wac_432 View Post
I agree. This will not end until we have all have antibodies. That means 18-24 realistic months for a lockdown until we get a vaccine. Or 1-2 months of business as usual and catastrophic virus activity until we're all either recovered or dead.

Of course, since the leadership has flip flopped from it's just a flu to we all have to hunker down, it's going to be hard, or impossible, to sell the idea we should all get infected. Whole states will balk, neighbor will turn against neighbor. It is going to be a ****storm.

I think, in the absence of any semblance of a plan, everyone will be so fed up with lockdown by May, and so depressed that virus activity levels off at some twilight zone number: too high to open anything, too low to create herd immunity for years, that the majority of people will just go along with letting the virus have it's way with us, government (national, state, and local) will throw up their hands and say "quarantine if you want/need to".
Medical officials won't allow this. They'll have no way of handling the hordes of patients. The whole point is to avoid an Italy-type breakdown, where people are simply left to die.
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Old 04-01-2020, 02:45 PM
 
Location: State of Transition
102,110 posts, read 107,301,106 times
Reputation: 115908
Quote:
Originally Posted by wac_432 View Post
I agree. This will not end until we have all have antibodies. That means 18-24 realistic months for a lockdown until we get a vaccine.
No, according to Kaiser Permanente in Seattle, which has been recruiting test subjects for their experimental vaccine in the works, it will be 14 months until rollout of a vaccine. I don't know what Johnson & Johnson's timeline is for theirs.
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Old 04-01-2020, 02:52 PM
 
Location: Cape Cod
24,296 posts, read 17,043,427 times
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I believe that Trump and his team are doing the best they can under this new virus and unprecedented challenge.


Given that who knows what the future holds for us. We cannot go on hiding out from this but this virus is like the flu which can be slowed with vaccines but can never be stopped. What happens if we do get a handle on it only to have it emerge again next year tougher and more resilient?

I wonder if the self quarantine will be become a new way of life? That come February 2021 the Gov. will once again shut down our economy for 2-3 months while everyone rides out the illness?



Life as we know may have ended.
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Old 04-01-2020, 02:54 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
38,936 posts, read 23,800,954 times
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The biggest thing I see is that it is going to be an ease back into society. When baseball and football is back, I imagine stadiums will be about half full most games. Movie theaters will see small amounts of audiences for most films. I doubt most people will see two movies this year (this is the typical average.) A lot of what we know will be different until people get more comfortable.
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Old 04-01-2020, 03:42 PM
 
3,145 posts, read 2,669,781 times
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/o....co/C8sSKnEF8w

This is interesting, but low-dose exposure will never be officially approved.

Just like the author, I don't advocate getting purposefully infected now, since complications that might arise would hit you at the time of peak stress on the medical system.

That said, I am going to do.some more reading and consider switching from full isolation measures (no eating food I havent cooked myself, mask while out in public) to less-effective isolation that would be more likely to expose me to a low dose of the virus.
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Old 04-01-2020, 04:29 PM
 
Location: State of Transition
102,110 posts, read 107,301,106 times
Reputation: 115908
Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpunk View Post
The biggest thing I see is that it is going to be an ease back into society. When baseball and football is back, I imagine stadiums will be about half full most games. Movie theaters will see small amounts of audiences for most films. I doubt most people will see two movies this year (this is the typical average.) A lot of what we know will be different until people get more comfortable.
If they produce movies worth seeing, I'll be there to see 'em. Most movie showings I go to are sparsely attended anyway. Think about it; they don't just run on the weekends, they go all week long, but during the week, the showings are more sparsely attended. And indie and foreign films tend to draw smaller crowds, too.

The big change might be fore the blockbuster films; they may not attract huge crowds anymore.
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Old 04-01-2020, 04:43 PM
 
Location: high plains
802 posts, read 980,637 times
Reputation: 635
Society has many layers and niches of expertise and capability. This forum is one example of common folk sharing ideas. Current technology will allow the most knowlegeable to network and communicate. We can hope that eventually the results of their spreading knowledge will surface in the news reports and politician decisions. We will begin to elect those who demonstrate leadership and wisdom and we will decide how and when to follow their lead. Young people who grow up in these times and the pandemic survivors will get smarter about such things. Capital will flow to support the best of the ideas and abilities. All of this takes time measured in months and years and decades. We should continue to follow the wisest current, available short-term plans and begin to transition to longer-term courses of action, including voting when possible and helping each other survive.
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