Reasons NOT to move to McKinney-Calling all the usual suspects (Dallas: sales, real estate)

[skids929]

Ok, I am sure I will get flamed for playing Devils advocate here, but here goes..I am a long time lurker here, light contributor and potential relocator from the Northeast. I want to dedicate a thread to this topic, rather than sift through a 1000 piece-mail. Also, this topic came up in another thread recently and evoked some pretty strong opinions, I figured it's time for another go-round on this topic. But this time I want to approach it a little differently with some basic ground rules.

Let's leave the emotion out of it. I mean, they whole 'my area is better than yours' out of the argument-we've heard all that before. What I want to do is get good solid very basic economic reasoning from some of the smart regular posters on this forum. In fact, I want to hear particularly from those folks, with some basic stats why McKinney, as another poster stated, "is the next Mesquite". I ask this because I have yet to hear a really compelling argument as to why what seems like such a nice area is looked upon rather negatively by people that have been raised in Dallas Proper or older suburbs. Or a compelling enough argument for the person who has no interest in living in Dallas not to move there.

So why is McKinney a bad place to invest in real estate over the long term? Let's say someone who planned to stay for 10 years or so? Quite honestly, the question is relevant for someone investing short term as well, since these days you can get a house at low prices.

[Lakewooder]

Guess what - I am going to give you some pros:

It was originally a smaller town and has that feeling.

It has some historic homes and buildings with a town square and some mom and pop businesses.

It has trees.

It has made an effort to see that the high schools are economically and ethnically diverse.

It's not that far to Lake Texoma.

[TurtleCreek80]

McKinney is not the next Mesquite. It has a charming downtown area that has been around for 100+ years and will continue to do so. Frisco is the next Mesquite as it has nothing "special" or "unique" about it, nor is it a major business center like Plano / Legacy Drive cooridor.

My reasons for pointing posters away from McKinney have to do with the school district quality. If one is looking in Collin County, one most likely has a job in Plano/ Richardson/ Dallas. The best schools in Collin County are Plano ISD & Allen ISD. They are aslo closer to jobs in Plano/ Richardson/ Dallas. I just don't get the logic of someone who wants to live further away and have kids in worse schools.

Another reason to not choose McKinney as an investment is that the town is only 30% built out. Frisco is about 50% built out. Allen is getting close to 80% or so and Plano is at 95%. As long as your area is not 100% built out, you are going to compete with brand new construction - which is clearly preferrable to many relocatees- and your home will not appreciate as quickly as land value drives home values up and land value must be scarce to be in demand. Again, this is why Plano and Allen are better choices in my mind- they aren't making anymore land in those areas and people who want the schools will pay a premium. It will be decades before McKinney and Frisco are 95% built out. It took Plano approx 30 years.

[skids929]

I knew I could count on you guys.

TC, you summed it very well for me. Thanks. Wish we could "sticky" this. Is there a way to validate the built out numbers you mentioned? Call the City for a Master Plan?

I just need to know where to focus my efforts for this visit and future planning, but also want other posters to benefit from this information since alot of the other threads (not all) are just people inserting opinions without facts to back it up.

Mckinney really does seem nice, but what I have realized thus far is I literally can NOT get the home I want in DFW for under $350k without giving up something major-the dismal science strikes again. In McKinney I seem to be able to do that but I think I am giving up a pretty important aspect of real estate, location and ultimately resale.

I need absorption rate data for McKinney, which I can't seem to get my hands on yet. This usually shows how long homes sit, or the churn in an area overall, and now is a good time to look at this statistic.

If the job ends up in the Legacy Corridor for me, Granite Parkway are, I still think I have to look there. But Allen does seem like the better choice on that side of the MP.

[racehorse]

Location is a big deal. It's nice to be within 15 or 20 minutes of city amenities, and McKinney is way out there. Allen is pretty far too, but I do think it has the advantage of having more shopping nearby, as well as better schools.

[biafra4life]

Garland resident here ie one of the 'older suburbs' you mentioned in your post. I visit McKinney and Allen fairly regularly due to having church friends from up there. McKinney is actually quite nice, especially the stonebridge area, but in answer to your question, while I have no personal dislike for McKinney, I really don't see any advantage that McKinney would give you over Allen. Allen has the better schools (served by both Allen ISD and Plano ISD), it's a bit closer in (75 sucks pretty much across the board, but from Allen you deal with less of it), shopping is better in Allen with the Shops at Fairview/Allen right there, and the big one, Allen being almost built out. Living in a city that is not built out can be akin to rolling the dice, take Frisco for example, there is a part of that city called the Trails, all houses valued at $300K and up. Unfortunately for that area, it's right next to some empty land in neigboring city Little Elm. Little Elm proceeded to rezone that land from light commercial to Multi Family. And now there are plans for up to 1,400 apartments to be built there. This type of thing couldnt happen in Allen or Plano since they are pretty much built out with little room left. Certainty can be a good thing for a home owner no?

[ChristieP]

Originally Posted by racehorse

Location is a big deal. It's nice to be within 15 or 20 minutes of city amenities, and McKinney is way out there.

If you don't already have a job here in DFW, being stuck up in the far NE corner of the metroplex will SERIOUSLY limit your career choices. You will either have to find a job in Plano/Richardson areas, or you will have a horribly long commute.

If you are into any type of cultural activities (museums, symphonies, opera, theatre, etc), your choices up there are seriously limited. There are only the community orchestras/threatre, no good museums, etc. I would much rather be closer to the city for the cultural activities!

[TurtleCreek80]

Originally Posted by skids929

ITC, you summed it very well for me. Thanks. Wish we could "sticky" this. Is there a way to validate the built out numbers you mentioned? Call the City for a Master Plan?

I actually posted on that very topic a while ago comparing Frisco & McKinney-->
You should study both of these websites thoroughly: Frisco Economic Development Corporation and McKinney EDC

Frisco is 69 square miles and is just over 50% built out. Current population is 102,000 and "build out" population is approx 350,000. There are currently 2413 people per square mile. Compare with mature suburbs like Plano @ 3820 people per square mile and Richardson at 3549 people per square mile, and you'll see Frisco has many years, probably 15-25 more before being fully developed. The EDC websites provide a lot of data on building permits being issued (residential and commercial), population trends and you can project for yourself how the cities are trending.

McKinney (unincorporated land + city limits) is just 26% built out. Current population 127,000. Build out population projected to be 387,000.

Originally Posted by skids929

I need absorption rate data for McKinney, which I can't seem to get my hands on yet. This usually shows how long homes sit, or the churn in an area overall, and now is a good time to look at this statistic.

Dallas Area Home Sales - Business News for Dallas, Texas - The Dallas Morning News

For Q1 2011, McKinney home sales,
-Sold units were -14% to LY (biggest drop in CoCo).
-Average price +5% (on the higher side for CoCo) @ $184k (compare with $205k for Plano/Allen, $235k Frisco, and $335k Fairview).
-Avg DOM was 96 (highest in CoCo).
-Median price/sf $85 (lowest in CoCo).

Originally Posted by skids929

If the job ends up in the Legacy Corridor for me, Granite Parkway are, I still think I have to look there. But Allen does seem like the better choice on that side of the MP.

I would do everything you possibly can to end up in Allen vs McKinney. Shorter commute (barely) and tremendous potential with the Shops @ Fairview development at Stacy & 75.

[lh_newbie]

My concern with McKinney would be two fold:

- Job base. McKinney isn't as close to the major job centers of downtown, Addison, Las Calinas, etc. If you have a job today that is close to McKinney, you do limit your future job options due to the long commute to some of these areas. I personally do not consider living more than 40 minutes from a job something that is acceptable.
- McKinney has a LOT of space that's still not built out. Due to that, for the next 10 years, you'll still be competing against new development (and the new construction in the next city in the relentless Northern march). This will definitely limit your potential for appreciation. If the overall metro has a 3.5% appreciation rate over the next 10 years, I would expect McKinney to be a full percentage point behind. It's not going to go down, but it won't rise as much due to new home competition.

Other than that, I would agree with Lakewooder that McKinney, of most of the northern burbs, is IMO, one of the nicer ones. They've done a nice job of making many of the areas feel more small town-ish. The historic downtown is very nice and they have several streets in which historic homes are considered desirable. McKinney has a lot of trees and seems to want to maintain the canopy as well.

Hope this is the sort of thing you're looking for.

brian

[lh_newbie]

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

I would do everything you possibly can to end up in Allen vs McKinney. Shorter commute (barely) and tremendous potential with the Shops @ Fairview development at Stacy & 75.

Don't forget Watters Creek in Allen. Another very nice development - very nice open-air, walkable development. Great feel. And a little creek that seems to attract a lot of ducks. I like ducks...

Brian