A Grim housing glut in Collin county

[lh_newbie]

Originally Posted by momof2dfw

We mentioned earlier in this thread about cities imposing a building moratorium. Last night on the news they mentioned the city of Little Elm was supposed to decide last night about putting one in place. I'd say that would be a VERY smart thing to do for all of the area cities.

All week the news has been saying that the number of existing homes sold is lower than last year. Would that not naturally happen if less people are putting their homes up for sale? I don't see where that is a bad thing but rather a good thing as it means the area is becoming more stable.

Correct - sales pace is irrelevant when looked at in a vacuum. You need to look at sales pace and homes no the market. This is typically measured in # of months at the current sales pace it would take to sell all the homes on the market - I believe they call it "# months of housing stock" or something like that...

For example, who cares if there were 60% of the absolute sales from last years number if there was an 8 month supply of homes last year and then this year we have a 4 month supply. # months supply will give you a much better measure of the market. (note, this was just hypothetical, I don't know the housing supply numbers for our area)

[intence]

Originally Posted by momof2dfw

We mentioned earlier in this thread about cities imposing a building moratorium. Last night on the news they mentioned the city of Little Elm was supposed to decide last night about putting one in place. I'd say that would be a VERY smart thing to do for all of the area cities.

All week the news has been saying that the number of existing homes sold is lower than last year. Would that not naturally happen if less people are putting their homes up for sale? I don't see where that is a bad thing but rather a good thing as it means the area is becoming more stable.

I suppose what's not being reported is the number of closings vs. the number of listings as a ratio. If the ratio is high, then homes are selling well, if it's low, then the market is slow. Rather they only report on the number of closings, which as you mentioned could just mean that fewer people are selling their homes.

[lh_newbie]

And it could be argued that a lower # of sales could be a good thing... meaning that less transient population. People could love their area so much they don't WANT to sell. Of course, this would need to be backed up by an increase in average $/sq ft and possibly an increase in new housing starts. Lots of assumptions there, huh?!

[FarNorthDallas]

I thought the problem with Little Elm was traffic and how long it takes to get out of that town on its little 2 lane roads. It's not about maintaining home prices, is it?

[momof2dfw]

Originally Posted by FarNorthDallas

I thought the problem with Little Elm was traffic and how long it takes to get out of that town on its little 2 lane roads. It's not about maintaining home prices, is it?

I believe it was concerning their traffic and the lack of roads not for really slowing down the building but the amount of people it would put onto the existing already overcrowded roads.

Yes, I too believe that the lower sales numbers in pre-existing homes could mean that people are happy and satisfied w/ where they are. I don't know about the rest of you but my parents just did not move. They moved twice in my entire childhood (1st I was a baby and they moved from a small rent house to their first home so I don't know if I'd count that one - if so then just once). They were the norm too as many of their adult friends never moved at leat not until their kids were all grown or such. Very few did move several times. Only now do you have people that are always on the move - many seeking that next "hot spot" to make to try and hit the big time, lol. I laugh at that as w/ each move it costs you more money.

As for how that would create an increase in the number of new home starts not always. If it is a city or area that is built out there is no where for a new housing development.

Does it create an increase in price per sq foot? I believe so. I know that my lil ol suburb has seen a DRASTIC increase in $/st ft. To even say there is a "housing glut" over here is assinine. Even that site zillow has that in the last 45 days my own house has increased a HUGE amount and even $7K from last Friday till Tuesday - just hope the folks down at DCAD don't see that.

[khfar]

Originally Posted by lh_newbie

FarNorthDallas -

I got a good laugh out of that.

When talking to out-of-staters, many are surprised when I tell them I live in Dallas proper. But then again, when I lived in Michigan, I just said I lived in Detroit, even when I didn't live in Detroit proper. I lived "downriver", in Gibraltar, but people don't know where that is. People generalize with the largest major city. Totally cool in my book. People that knew Detroit a bit asked if I lived in Troy or Novi (the rough equivalent of Plano/Allen/Frisco/McKinney in the Detroit metro).

I do miss using my had as a map. Living in Michigan, I could point at the ball near my thumb and say, "I live here". Hehe.

Oh, you can totally do that in Texas, too! I made up my own hand map for Texas, to say, "I'm from here". You use your right hand, and just bend the last two (ring and pinky) fingers down. It kind of looks like Texas. Kind of. But people up here (just moved to MI) get a kick out of it when they show me the "mitten" on their hand, and then I show them mine! Try it - maybe you'll start some new phenomenon!