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Old 08-10-2007, 10:33 AM
 
93 posts, read 464,600 times
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Trying to get some feedback from the ones who have lived in the DFW area for a long time.

We're about to purchase our first home, and we're debating whether to try and find something now, or wait about 6 months for all of the real estate turmoil to end. DFW never really had a bubble that was nearly as inflated as other cities, so i'm wondering if prices will actually come down significantly?
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Old 08-10-2007, 10:48 AM
 
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We never had the bubble, but we still have the foreclosures. The outskirts of Dallas seem to be overbuilt. The number of house sales are down, but prices are flat or going up.

I'm native to these parts and I don't know what to think. There just seems to be so many available homes right now, especially new ones and especially in the new outlying areas. The builders went crazy. I don't know if enough Californians are going to come and fill them up.

I live in a paid off house and I'm glad.
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Old 08-10-2007, 10:59 AM
 
Location: The Big D
14,862 posts, read 42,678,014 times
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Depends on where your looking. If your interested in the areas of West Plano, Frisco, Allen, McKinney, Carrollton, etc then you can find some bargains and the prices may keep going down. Since these areas are now overbuilt and facing the "housing glut" for the region you have MANY homes to pick from. Your money can really go a long way in those areas. However, if your looking to only live in this house for a short period of time I would not buy in these areas as I don't see the trend stopping any time too soon. Being that these are the areas that many newcomers to the area pick to move to it is also very transient in that many of them are only going to be in their homes for a 2-5 year period before having to move on. Also, many of the buyers that have been filling this market for the last several years come from the hardest hit states in the housing "bubble". While the lucky ones were able to "cash out" or get out before the prices took more of a nose dive or the market stalled there are now many that can not sell. Therefore they are not able to make the move and buy a home here. While they want to get out and live in an area w/ a better cost of living and slower real estate appreciation they may not be able to. Even the job offered here may have to be turned down if they can't sell their current out of state home.

Avoid areas that have a large number of homes for sale. Not just in one development but many in the vicinity. If you see row after row of spec homes sitting for sale by the builders along w/ existing homes for sale and many foreclosures - that is not a good area to invest in. If you put in all of your requirements on a site like realtor dot com in an area and it still comes up w/ over 200 homes for sale - that is a sign of a weak market. Drive the neighborhoods and look at the number of homes for sale before diving in. See how long they have been on the market. Are they empty? Number of foreclosures?

Now, there are MANY areas that are good to get into and the prices are not going down and I don't expect them too. Houses in those areas are few and far between for sale. You might find more in one neighborhood than another but if it is not an overall trend for that region then I would not be alarmed (unless there are problems w/ that development so pay attention there).
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Old 08-10-2007, 10:59 AM
 
37,315 posts, read 59,487,504 times
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there have been price run ups in certain areas -- I think the new building going on in Colleyville and Southlake and parts of Keller (the higher cost homes) have been inflated but I doubt that there will be any significant drops in those homes' prices--land is just too expensive...

if you are first time home buyers--remember that developers still active in a subdivision can usually give a better price on a new home than people that are selling their homes in the same subdivision--the difference would be lot location and any finishouts or upgrades (like maybe a pool in a house a couple of years old) that a builder would not cover...
I find that better lots are usually built first -- so the ones left are either in a new area that was opened or lot that has problems--like backing up to major road, lots of slope to the lot, things like that...

your money situation will be the most important aspect--make sure that you have excellent credit rating and you know what your budget is--don't get swayed by a real estate agent to go higher than you are comfortable with--houses are expensive--no matter what you pay, there are always other costs involved...
DON"T SHOP outside your price range--that is a killer--whatever your ceiling is---STAY UNDER IT WHEN YOU SHOP--otherwise you will make yourself unhappy and just cause lots of indecision...



the major developers like Drees and DR Horton and Wall that are buiding in tarrant co don't really offer quality for cost IMO--but I know that when people have a finite budget they have to make decisions based on what is out there in their locations, school districts, and price ranges...

I think buying now could work and buying later could work--there are so many variables that are individualistic that there is no one answer fits all---

will there be a hugh market drop in next six mo--probably not--so there won't be great bargains to be found six mo from now if you wait--but I do think the market is getting more buyer oriented than seller--homes are staying on market longer and some sellers are dropping their prices--

what I have noticed at least on the Tarrant co side where I am looking is that more and more listings are coming on MLS using a cheap MLS listing service and not a real estate firm--those people are trying to save money--either they want the profit saved by not paying a 6% commission or they think the market is hot enough they don't need one--lots of time they are wrong--real estate agents don't like to show those listings--they are usually not that well prepared to show either...

when you buy--school district is big impact on resale--even if you don't have kids, the people who buy your house might--taxes are impacted by ISDs--sometimes significantly--but there is a reason why those homes usually are more saleable than ones in poorer-performing districts or school zones---
remember it does not cost anymore on the tax rate to buy a house in a recognized or exemplary school zone than in acceptable---so try for the best you can afford...
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Old 08-10-2007, 11:13 AM
 
Location: DFW, TX
2,935 posts, read 6,694,253 times
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Here's my wild prediction... Prices continue to increase by 0-2% in desirable areas while days on the market increase by 50%. Some sellers will mark down prices when they need to sell in 30-60 days, which is why I think we'll see an average increase of 0-2%.

Now I think 6-12 months out is when the market will actually heat up, ironically, if interest rates continue to increase. My thoughts are that the populous in majorly inflated markets such as LA, SF, Silicon Valley, NY/NJ, will be drawn to the area due to the healthy job growth and affordability of housing. This could be an event that drives a spike in the population growth of cities such as Dallas and Houston.
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Old 08-10-2007, 11:29 AM
 
549 posts, read 2,188,001 times
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Nobody knows.
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Old 08-10-2007, 11:47 AM
 
Location: Lake Highlands (Dallas)
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IMO - we will see some tapering down of the growth rate here as the coastal areas where we get a large influx of folks from continue to be beaten down. Until those areas solidify and allow people to sell without taking a major beating, many of them will sit tight and wait for greener pastures. Many of the people that were willing to take a hit have already done so.

If you want a house now in DFW - buy it. Waiting isn't going to make much of a difference in price. In fact, in desirable areas, waiting may cost you.
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Old 08-10-2007, 12:47 PM
 
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We're in the same boat as you. We are gonna wait it out a few months to see if the sale prices will go down or if the builder will start to offer more incentives or not. Lenders are tightening up their shops, that means less buyers get approved, that means less buyers overall, that means less houses sold, which hopefully will equate to something good for you ---- the buyer in the form of a lower sale price or added incentives you would otherwise not get.
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Old 08-10-2007, 01:02 PM
 
Location: Lake Highlands (Dallas)
2,394 posts, read 8,566,457 times
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In my neighborhood, I only see prices continuing to go up. When we bought our house, it sold for $98/sq ft. Several homes over the last few months have sold for $127/sq ft - and they are about the same size/age of home. Ours was bought below market, as it needed fixing, but even then in good condition, it was worth $110/sq ft. It's been about 11 months since we closed.

I think the difference here is that I live in a built-out area. No new homes here (we live in Lake Highlands) and 1200 apartment units have closed and have begun the redevelopment process. I suspect my area to increase by 5-10% per year for the next couple years while the redevelopment happens.
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Old 08-10-2007, 01:03 PM
 
6,578 posts, read 25,374,853 times
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Right now it seems that some of the sellers are delusional about what their houses are worth. Too high.

But in my neighborhood we had a flipper buy a house in May for $159,000 and he put it on the market last week for $239,000 and it sold already. I'm in a 40 year old neighborhood in Dallas proper.
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