Has Dallas Real estate bottomed out or is there another dip to come? (Liberty: credit card, employment)

[nsumner]

I wanted to share this with those interested in learning more about the 2012 real estate forecast.

Friday October 21 at the Doubletree Hotel in Dallas (Campbell Center): Cost is $45 from 9am-1pm. Registration at 8:30 Continental breakfast served.

Featured Speaker: “The National Economy” - Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the National Association of REALTORS. He directs research activity for the association and regularly provides commentary on real estate market trends to the national media for NAR's 1 million REALTOR members. Dr. Yun creates NAR’s forecasts and participates in many economic forecasting panels. USA Today listed him among the top 10 economic forecasters in the country.

There will be a couple of other speakers from the mortgage industry and George Roddy from the foreclosure Roddy Report.

Naima

[TX75007]

Originally Posted by EDS_

I see three schools of thought:

1. The economy will fully crap out entering a decade or more of pain and suffering like very few of us can imaging. A combination of European financial intransigence, old world/new world strife, famine, and or some other things could cause economic failure. The US is tapped out. We have an awful looking balance sheet and we through our government are spending more not less.

2. A long wave of small economic moves to the upside followed by moves to the downside. The "Long Depression" during most of the last 40 years of the 1800s was like this. If this happens we will likely endure continued high unemployment but very low inflation and interest rates. If one has steady income these times are generally fairly easy. Through the deflation of the '30 folks who managed to remain employed did nicely.

3. A few more sideways years and then "normal" growth.

I've always viewed the mortgage rate as important as the house.

If my mindset was, "the economy will stay together". I'd buy, prices are as low as they've been in a long while and rates are at or near all time lows. Buying now may prove to be buying cheap looking back.

I think this view is the most credible.

4. The boom picks up steam after the 2012 election as oil prices fall, jobs begin to inshore due to the manufacturing renaissance in the US, the Panama canal is widened allowing the ports in the South to truly compete with the West Coast, and the housing market picks up steam as the underwater mortgages are cleared.

I think 2013-2020 will be boom years.

I agree about interest rates. That determines your total out of pocket costs. Low prices and low rates means a good deal.

[GreyDay]

Hope you're right, for all our sakes...

[hamiltonpl]

Originally Posted by ggolf

I just heard a financial "expert" on WBAP say that the DOW might drop to 3000 and housing prices nationally will drop 60%, or at least there is a worst case scenario risk of those.

Was it because of a vampire attack or space aliens? Dow at 3000? That's Mad Max time.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by TX75007

I think this view is the most credible.

4. The boom picks up steam after the 2012 election as oil prices fall, jobs begin to inshore due to the manufacturing renaissance in the US, the Panama canal is widened allowing the ports in the South to truly compete with the West Coast, and the housing market picks up steam as the underwater mortgages are cleared.

I think 2013-2020 will be boom years.

I agree about interest rates. That determines your total out of pocket costs. Low prices and low rates means a good deal.

I think your scenario (4) is more likely than my scenario (1). I skipped a rosy scenario as several on the board tend to go a little crazy when someone mentions the economy may do well going forward.

The re shoring of some manufacturing jobs is a welcome event - it looks like a lot more are coming back as well. Why do you see oil/gas prices falling? No question there is a lot of pent up demand in business and in the consumer.

[BigDGeek]

Originally Posted by hamiltonpl

Was it because of a vampire attack or space aliens? Dow at 3000? That's Mad Max time.

I'd be stocking up on shotgun shells if I believed that.

[skids929]

Originally Posted by hamiltonpl

Was it because of a vampire attack or space aliens? Dow at 3000? That's Mad Max time.

[MckinneyOwnr]

Originally Posted by TX75007

I think this view is the most credible.

4. The boom picks up steam after the 2012 election as oil prices fall, jobs begin to inshore due to the manufacturing renaissance in the US, the Panama canal is widened allowing the ports in the South to truly compete with the West Coast, and the housing market picks up steam as the underwater mortgages are cleared.

I think 2013-2020 will be boom years.

I'm sure we'll have a boom ahead of us in the future (after all, that's what the economy always does after a recession) but I don't see much improvement until 2015 or so. We're practically in 2012 now, and the housing market and jobs market just isn't going to pick up dramatically in the next year.

[EDS_]

Given the extreme amounts of sideline cash and Fed inspired/funded liquidity out there if the economy starts to really pick up steam I think the Fed will have to slow things by elevating short term rates.

One easily seeable and somewhat easily preventable nightmare scenario is high cost push and high demand pull general price inflation at the same time. Lots of cash and a significantly improving employment pic might lay the groundwork for both. The Fed will not allow it. That's why I think a big time run up isn't going to occur. Slow, methodical, painful growth is about the best we can hope for.

[1957TabbyCat]

Originally Posted by EDS_

I see three schools of thought:

1. The economy will fully crap out entering a decade or more of pain and suffering like very few of us can imaging. A combination of European financial intransigence, old world/new world strife, famine, and or some other things could cause economic failure. The US is tapped out. We have an awful looking balance sheet and we through our government are spending more not less.

2. A long wave of small economic moves to the upside followed by moves to the downside. The "Long Depression" during most of the last 40 years of the 1800s was like this. If this happens we will likely endure continued high unemployment but very low inflation and interest rates. If one has steady income these times are generally fairly easy. Through the deflation of the '30 folks who managed to remain employed did nicely.

3. A few more sideways years and then "normal" growth.

I've always viewed the mortgage rate as important as the house.

If my mindset was, "the economy will stay together". I'd buy, prices are as low as they've been in a long while and rates are at or near all time lows. Buying now may prove to be buying cheap looking back.

If mindset was, "the economy is doomed". I wouldn't buy. Or maybe I would and enjoy the home until the SHTF begins. I've got to say anyone thinking this way and still living in any city is crazy.

I like #2, but does not mean we get it. It is how much of the respectable culture of America was until FDR and after WW2. You keep and income(s) and expenses lower then the income. In things like furniture only trash tend to have too many things that are new. Items can be found in the home sometimes older then the USA itself, with many things 50 to a 100 years or more.

The intrinsic quality of life is important. Reading really good books, Plotting out over a long period of time. However some elements of #1 are appealing,in that many of the nanny state items go bankrupt. I sure hope
we never really do have widespread riots and panic from a dumbed down populace expecting handouts from a Big Brother and Big Sis who know best and they are no longer possible. In fact in many countries outher then the USA and Western Europe there very few social services.

The process of withdrawl for those hooked on the drug of transfer payments could be painful.