DFW Housing Bottom Winter 2011

[Johnhw2]

I received a summary of sales in my neighborhood for the past few years. Its not a huge neighborhood, 175 homes or so, some are on a lake and large lots so the number of homes in a lake can mask the true trends. But here is some data for the past four years....for my area.

Year .... Avg $/sf ... nos of sales ... Days on market

2012 ... 179 ... 11 ... 72
2011 ... 158 ... 14 ... 93
2010 ... 159 ... 7 ... 213
2009 ... 185 ... 11 ... 172

Any conclusion from this small sample size is risky. However, I should note at end of 2012 there were 2 homes on the market. When I bought in August 2010, there were 15 homes on the market. This and the DOM are the two indicators that suggest the bottom was in 2011. The avg $/sf spiked up in 2012 due to mix, that is more sales of large lot of lake fronting homes. The avg sales price (absolute not $/sf) jumped by 30% due to the mix of higher end homes sold in 2012. Also, the listings available now are not bank owned or foreclosures where one early 2012 sale was a foreclosed lake front home.

I stand by the bottom was around year end 2011 as I agreed with OP.

[Bypass13]

I noticed that values were their lowest around winter of 2011 in my area as well. Two new home owners who bought in spring were already complaining about how their home values went down within few months. They are breathing better this year. Anyone with any stats to show when were sell prices were their lowest in 75093 during last 5 years?

[Johnhw2]

Originally Posted by Bypass13

I noticed that values were their lowest around winter of 2011 in my area as well. Two new home owners who bought in spring were already complaining about how their home values went down within few months. They are breathing better this year. Anyone with any stats to show when were sell prices were their lowest in 75093 during last 5 years?

The data I gave above is for my neighborhood which is a portion of 75093. I have additional years worth data if you are intersted. See below.

year....$/sf....sales .... Days on Market

2012....179....11.... ........ 72
2011....158.....14..............93
2010....159.....7...............213
2009....186....11..............172
2008....183.....21.............127
2007....198.....11.............126
2006....182....,11..............62
2005....206.....20..............70
2004....178.....16.............105
2003....161.....16.............109
2002....167.....16.............106


Again remember many typical homes and a few large lot/lake fronting homes are in the neighborhood so price per sf can vary significantly with the mix of homes sold each year. See my post above for additional comments on the bottom being end of 2011.

[Bypass13]

Hey Johnhw2, thanks.

[scadfw]

Yep, inventory has shrunk and prices have firmed up somewhat, but we still need more jobs across the nation.

[Bypass13]

Usually real estate works in cycles so history says we are going upwards. That is, if employment situation keeps improving.

[BigDGeek]

My neighborhood hit bottom in 2009 and the price per square foot has been going up ever since.