Toyota moving US headquarters from CA to Plano, TX (Dallas: insurance, tornadoes)

[TX75007]

Originally Posted by TR95

You have no idea what you are talking about. Not Torrance or any of the surrounding areas where the mid to high level people are living. Maybe you mean Palmdale, Rancho Cucamonga, Fontana, Riverside, Sacramento, not the South Bay in LA, most parts of OC and good parts of SD. Not where the majority of these people are currently living. Highly unlikely. In fact, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa, Redondo and parts of Torrance have reached all-time highs over the peak in 2006/2007.

Actually, I do know what I am talking about.

I am very familiar with the LA and San Fran areas. I ran Manhattan Beach most mornings for over a year and can say the same thing about the Golden Gate bridge.

Most people on a 100K salary cannot afford the 1 mil + homes in Manhattan Beach, etc. They live in the interior valleys (i IE Riverside ) and commute 40+ minutes.

A number of my new staff are relos from CA and they are living in apartments or rentals here and renting out their house there hoping things will get better. Others took the bath in 2009-2011 time frame and have credit issues as a result. A lot of homes in many "nice" areas are empty as well.

My BIL is an exec in CA (reloed to LA from San Fran in 2012) and they are still renting out their house in S Napa until it regains its value. They rent in LA as no bank will let them carry two mortgages right now. My SIL is head of the local PTA in a very large school district and has a lot of stories about this subject among many of the families.

[KSJT]

Originally Posted by CREW747

Not surprising...wonder what will come next....

Sources: Toyota isn't going to be the last big fish to land in Dallas - Dallas Business Journal

Great link

Quoted from link:

The majority of Toyota's employees will not move until construction on the Japanese automaker's new corporate offices are completed in late 2016 or early 2017.

My crystal-ball is that most of the transplants will seek out the Plano, Frisco, Allen areas. I don't see Colleyville/Grapevine/Coppell being targeted until after Plano/Frisco/Allen is exhausted.

[KSJT]

Originally Posted by TX75007

Actually, I do know what I am talking about.

I am very familiar with the LA and San Fran areas. I ran Manhattan Beach most mornings for over a year and can say the same thing about the Golden Gate bridge.

Most people on a 100K salary cannot afford the 1 mil + homes in Manhattan Beach, etc. They live in the interior valleys (i IE Riverside ) and commute 40+ minutes.

A number of my new staff are relos from CA and they are living in apartments or rentals here and renting out their house there hoping things will get better. Others took the bath in 2009-2011 time frame and have credit issues as a result. A lot of homes in many "nice" areas are empty as well.

My BIL is an exec in CA (reloed to LA from San Fran in 2012) and they are still renting out their house in S Napa until it regains its value. They rent in LA as no bank will let them carry two mortgages right now. My SIL is head of the local PTA in a very large school district and has a lot of stories about this subject among many of the families.

Southern California is a real estate seller's market this spring - Los Angeles Times

March 19 2014 article claims Southern California is "seller's market"

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by KSJT

Southern California is a real estate seller's market this spring - Los Angeles Times

March 19 2014 article claims Southern California is "seller's market"

That does not mean prices have recovered to pre-bust levels.

[synchronicity]

Originally Posted by EDS_

That does not mean prices have recovered to pre-bust levels.

FWIW, the Case-Schiller home price indices have averages in SF, SD and LA about 15-20% lower (IIRC) than at the peak of mid-to-late 2006. Here's the San Diego link where people can look that up themselves - S&P/Case-Shiller San Diego Home Price Index - S&P Dow Jones Indices Anyone who's really interested can easily check the LA and SF indices as well. Looks like SD is just over 21% off peak. (November-05, 250.34, Current [Feb-14] 196.97).

ETA- SD's peak is earlier than I thought, although it stayed at/near peak for most of 2006)

[TR95]

Originally Posted by TX75007

Actually, I do know what I am talking about.

I am very familiar with the LA and San Fran areas. I ran Manhattan Beach most mornings for over a year and can say the same thing about the Golden Gate bridge.

Most people on a 100K salary cannot afford the 1 mil + homes in Manhattan Beach, etc. They live in the interior valleys (i IE Riverside ) and commute 40+ minutes.

A number of my new staff are relos from CA and they are living in apartments or rentals here and renting out their house there hoping things will get better. Others took the bath in 2009-2011 time frame and have credit issues as a result. A lot of homes in many "nice" areas are empty as well.

My BIL is an exec in CA (reloed to LA from San Fran in 2012) and they are still renting out their house in S Napa until it regains its value. They rent in LA as no bank will let them carry two mortgages right now. My SIL is head of the local PTA in a very large school district and has a lot of stories about this subject among many of the families.

Well now, I am really impressed by your running exploits. Sorry, you still don't know. Much has changed in the last 9-12 months. All you have is anecdotal information from a few, and like I said you are comparing the Inland Empire to the South Bay, really? Then you talk about Napa, which doesn't even compare to a metro area and cannot be cited in the same sentence with SF. There's really not many people commuting into SF, the East Bay, Silicon Valley from Napa. More commute from Sacramento.

Here are just a few that are over their peak prices in 2005/2006, but there are so many more (excluding Gardena and Hawthorne). Take a look around on websites and talk to people in the South Bay that really know the area.

1130 20th St, Manhattan Beach, CA 90266 | MLS# SB14056768 | Redfin
1608 Magnolia Ave, Manhattan Beach, CA 90266 | MLS# SB14030282 | Redfin
1500 Walnut Ave, Manhattan Beach, CA 90266 | MLS# SB14062987 | Redfin
3213 North Valley Dr, Manhattan Beach, CA 90266 | MLS# SB13216174 | Redfin


The good areas have all pretty much recovered. I don't disagree that there are plenty of areas that have not recovered as I mentioned in my prior post. They are for the most part areas with weaker schools. I would think that most Toyota employees that will be moving to Tx are not living in Riverside. Are there some random short sales, sure, but that does not mean the market sucks as you say and a far cry from that $750k house that you now say is worth $450k. And, not everyone living in CA bought their house at the top of the market. What about all those that bought in 2003 and before, they are not underwater unless they leveraged to buy fancy cars and other items which many did, but that was their own fault. It is not necessarily reflective of the real estate market in SoCal. Other areas with good schools such as Diamond Bar, Whittier, Irvine, Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, etc, etc, have for the most part recovered.

And try well over an hour to 90+ minutes commute from Riverside to LA, Torrance, etc.

[TR95]

Originally Posted by synchronicity

FWIW, the Case-Schiller home price indices have averages in SF, SD and LA about 15-20% lower (IIRC) than at the peak of mid-to-late 2006. Here's the San Diego link where people can look that up themselves - S&P/Case-Shiller San Diego Home Price Index - S&P Dow Jones Indices Anyone who's really interested can easily check the LA and SF indices as well. Looks like SD is just over 21% off peak. (November-05, 250.34, Current [Feb-14] 196.97).

ETA- SD's peak is earlier than I thought, although it stayed at/near peak for most of 2006)

Don't disagree with this, but you have to take into account that there are better performing areas within each of the LA, SF, and SD markets. Yes, many of the weaker areas are going to be far below peak prices as people making $50k were buying $500k houses in those weaker areas. The stronger areas will be close or above peak prices.

[ritholtz]

Originally Posted by KSJT

Great link

Quoted from link:
My crystal-ball is that most of the transplants will seek out the Plano, Frisco, Allen areas. I don't see Colleyville/Grapevine/Coppell being targeted until after Plano/Frisco/Allen is exhausted.

Rising tide lifts all the boats. Coppell is less than 15mil drive on 121. It has advantage of being closer to airport and well proven ISD like Plano. I am actually surprised that Tayota is not looking for a location closer to airport. Either way, it is a great news for all of us.

[nylander]

Originally Posted by ritholtz

Rising tide lifts all the boats. Coppell is less than 15mil drive on 121. It has advantage of being closer to airport and well proven ISD like Plano. I am actually surprised that Tayota is not looking for a location closer to airport. Either way, it is a great news for all of us.

There isn't any reason to go to Coppell, it's not closer or cheaper or exclusive. Schools in Plano are as good or better and housing inventory is better. Overflow would go to nearby areas of Frisco and Allen. Some may go to Park Cities or Preston Hollow. The Colony, Little Elm and far north Carrollton would get lower end buyers.

[Made_it_To_the_Metroplex]

Originally Posted by ritholtz

Rising tide lifts all the boats. Coppell is less than 15mil drive on 121. It has advantage of being closer to airport and well proven ISD like Plano. I am actually surprised that Tayota is not looking for a location closer to airport. Either way, it is a great news for all of us.

THIS is exactly my view as well!