First-time buyer - when should we buy? (Carrollton, Lewisville: appliances, land)

[nativeDallasite]

Originally Posted by Lakewooder

Well Jeff Siegel of advocatemag.com has done some extensive research on the direction of the market and his monthly column is about the subject. He seems sanguine: Back Talk Lakewood/East Dallas: The good news about home prices

Also, there's this: Crude Oil Hits $100 - Markets - Energy - HAL - XOM

Yes, gas is getting more expensive...but if homes in Lakewood and north Dallas are already out of reach for someone, gas prices won't influence their purchasing decisions much.

[lh_newbie]

I think rising crude prices will certainly have a positive influence on housing inside 635 and hold down inflation on the more affordable homes outside 635. This creates wins for two different groups of people:

- Since there is a concentration of professional jobs inside 635, I suspect the trend of migrating closer to the office to minimize miles driven to the office will continue and strengthen. This should mean existing homeowners inside 635 get higher appreciation rates (yup, that's my prediction).
- People that are house hunting outside 635 in the "under $250K" range should have stable prices for the next year or so as the credit crunch continues through 2008. IMO, this person doesn't need to rush into a home and can take their time with minimal concern of being priced out of the market.

Brian

[lh_newbie]

Originally Posted by nativeDallasite

Yes, gas is getting more expensive...but if homes in Lakewood and north Dallas are already out of reach for someone, gas prices won't influence their purchasing decisions much.

If we assume the person works downtown and can change their one-way drive from 28 miles to 8 miles - and we assume 20 MPG at $3/gallon - a person would cut out one gallon each way - for a total of 40 gallons per month ($120/month). This means a person can increase their mortgage by $20,000 for that $120/month if we assume a 30-year amortization at 6%.

So, for a person that works downtown, they CAN spend $20K more on a home and be financially in the same spot on a monthly basis, putting themselves geographically in an area that has historically proven to have higher appreciation.

Brian

[galore]

Those calculations become even more interesting, if you factor in the time saved by having a shorter commute.

Even if you value your time at a low, low $50/hour (low for a professional), you'll "save" $25/day, if you cut your commute by 15 minutes each way.

$25/day * 5 * 4 = $500/month, which equates to an almost $90k higher mortgage (30yr/6%).

[nativeDallasite]

Originally Posted by lh_newbie

If we assume the person works downtown and can change their one-way drive from 28 miles to 8 miles - and we assume 20 MPG at $3/gallon - a person would cut out one gallon each way - for a total of 40 gallons per month ($120/month). This means a person can increase their mortgage by $20,000 for that $120/month if we assume a 30-year amortization at 6%.

So, for a person that works downtown, they CAN spend $20K more on a home and be financially in the same spot on a monthly basis, putting themselves geographically in an area that has historically proven to have higher appreciation.

Brian

I'd save money on gas if I moved to Plano or Sachse from Dallas; I live just a hair south of Addison, but my mailing address is Dallas. I work in north Richardson.

The assumption that everybody would be closer to work if they lived south of 635 is incorrect. Those of us in the telecom corridor would be further away.

I'm all in favor of people living close to where they work. It cuts congestion and pollution and saves money. However, it's not always a realistic proposition. I understand why a lot of my colleagues with kids live in the suburbs. They take one look at the DISD, shudder in horror, and flee to the suburbs. Who can blame them? Plus, a lot of us tech workers seem to be in Richardson, Plano, and Frisco rather than downtown Dallas. It would make more sense for us to live in the suburbs, i.e. 5 rather than 15-20 miles from the office.

It's very cute to fantasize about riding the light rail or a Vespa to the office right down the street and living in a restored Craftsman in Lakewood, but it's just not a realistic proposition for most of us. Put it this way...if I moved to Lakewood it would double or possibly triple my commute time and burn far more gas than necessary...and I'd pay a premium for it, plus all that extra (and unnecessary) money on gas. I don't often go to the center of Dallas anyway, so why the hell would I want to live in that part of town? I'm sick of people trying to twist my arm and make me live inside the loop.

[Lakewooder]

Oh nD I thought you might be in a better mood this week...

I know inside LBJ is not for everyone but if you are going to be working inside or just outside, it should be considered. I have noticed as soon as you go outside LBJ on Central, Tollway, surface streets, etc. the traffic gets exponentially worse. nD if you lived close to Central and DART in my area, your commute might not be so bad.

Maybe it is not I who is twisting your arm, it's your brain telling you that you belong here!

And also being paid $20,000 or more per year (in appreciation) to live here might be considered.

[nativeDallasite]

Originally Posted by Lakewooder

Oh nD I thought you might be in a better mood this week...

Who says I'm in a bad mood?

I know inside LBJ is not for everyone but if you are going to be working inside or just outside, it should be considered. I have noticed as soon as you go outside LBJ on Central, Tollway, surface streets, etc. the traffic gets exponentially worse. nD if you lived close to Central and DART in my area, your commute might not be so bad.

I don't work inside LBJ. I don't work just outside it either. My office is a stone's throw south of 190.

Maybe it is not I who is twisting your arm, it's your brain telling you that you belong here!

Nope; I can't afford what I'd want in Lakewood.

And also being paid $20,000 or more per year (in appreciation) to live here might be considered.

That is money I'd only ever see if I sold or remortgaged, and that is assuming that homes there will continue to appreciate at current rates. We all know they won't.

[lh_newbie]

Originally Posted by nativeDallasite

I'd save money on gas if I moved to Plano or Sachse from Dallas; I live just a hair south of Addison, but my mailing address is Dallas. I work in north Richardson.

The assumption that everybody would be closer to work if they lived south of 635 is incorrect. Those of us in the telecom corridor would be further away.

If you read my post, you would see that I clearly stated: "So, for a person that works downtown, they CAN spend $20K more...". At no time did I state any assumption that everybody would be closer to work if they lived south of 635. I consistently state that people should live near their office, whether the office is in Frisco or in Dallas CBD.

[nativeDallasite]

Originally Posted by lh_newbie

If you read my post, you would see that I clearly stated: "So, for a person that works downtown, they CAN spend $20K more...". At no time did I state any assumption that everybody would be closer to work if they lived south of 635. I consistently state that people should live near their office, whether the office is in Frisco or in Dallas CBD.

That was more for Lakewooder. It's great that he cheerleads for Dallas, but he does seem to take a 'one size fits all' approach in his real estate recommendations.

[Lakewooder]

Do you mean the glass slipper in the fairytale land of Lakewood?