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No, that's just reality. Housing will always increase over time in an area where a population is increasing. That's not a problem, but an inevitability. If you want to live in a place where housing is stagnant or falling, check out Detroit.
Of course it does. Used to be that only lower income people couldn't afford to live within 20-30 min of where they worked. It became more and more rare for a middle class suburbanite to need to commute an hour to Dallas, as job centers sprung up around them in Richardson, Plano, Frisco, etc. But that's my point... more and more people do need to make peace with the fact that in order to live here, they may have an hour commute from an area of town they can afford, as even the middle class is finding that their money isn't going as far as it used to around here. But, it's not a pervasive mindset yet. One need only look at the advice given regularly on this forum, "Find out where you're working first, then we'll recommend housing in that area. You don't want to commute an hour or more, DFW is very spread out." Once advice like that stops, then an hour commute will have become the norm for most.
What do you believe the covid work from home angle might yield on local traffic over time?
Anecdotally, my wife informed her boss that her IT department would, at least for the foreseeable future and likely permanently, continue with a mostly work from home model. After a rough start (she actually had to fire a guy, demote a couple others and reassign several) she's seen tremendous improvements in work quality, delivery and user satisfaction. To the point they are getting better work done faster than before.
For my wife the changes have driven huge time savings. She still receives 6 or 8 daily, "hey do you have a minute" call/video interruptions but at the office she'd have two or three door knocks per hour asking the same.
FWIIW she's a member of several CIO groups and many others report the similar outcomes and will attempt full or partial work from home schemes going forward.
I guess it depends on your circle of people, but in my circle the one hour commute is pretty much a fact of life for the vast majority of people, especially for those who work in areas that are not the best for families. For example, I currently work in the 635/75 interchange area. Off the top of my head, we have a lot of people commuting from McKinney, Prosper, Allen, Wylie, Murphy, Grand Prairie, Parker just to name a few places. And it's been the same deal for all the other jobs I've had, especially in Dallas. Since most people cannot afford Highland Park but need good schools. they live out in Collin County or somewhere equally far out.
The question is, by going farther out, are they getting better schools?
I won't derail this thread too much, but plenty of evidence that a middle class or affluent student will achieve the same (or better) at schools in Richardson ISD or even Woodrow Wilson HS in Dallas (would not extend that to most open enrollment DISD schools though) as they would at Allen, Wylie, Rockwall, McKinney, etc.
Moving to West Plano for the schools can make sense, moving to somewhere further out than that is not about schools, it is about getting more house for the money. Not saying that is a bad thing, but in terms of getting used to 1+hr commutes I think it is driven at least as much by housing desires as it is by schools.
What do you believe the covid work from home angle might yield on local traffic over time?
Anecdotally, my wife informed her boss that her IT department would, at least for the foreseeable future and likely permanently, continue with a mostly work from home model. After a rough start (she actually had to fire a guy, demote a couple others and reassign several) she's seen tremendous improvements in work quality, delivery and user satisfaction. To the point they are getting better work done faster than before.
For my wife the changes have driven huge time savings. She still receives 6 or 8 daily, "hey do you have a minute" call/video interruptions but at the office she'd have two or three door knocks per hour asking the same.
FWIIW she's a member of several CIO groups and many others report the similar outcomes and will attempt full or partial work from home schemes going forward.
Remains to be seen... I've been in an HR role before and from my perspective, managers/employers have fought tooth and nail for the most part in limiting WFH options. The pandemic has changed that for the time being, but you and I both know that if productivity has taken any sort of hit, those companies will be demanding their employees return to the office. But for employees/departments like your wife, it may indeed become a permanent thing. Overall though, I think it would be pretty generous to say even 20-25% of workers would be allowed to stay WFH. I don't think that's going to move the needle much as far as traffic goes, especially when people are still flocking here year after year.
I've been working from home for 10 years... it takes discipline, and truly, not everyone can focus and be productive. I've seen that plenty from my Zoom calls this year, LOL.
...But what do I know, I'm here on CD in the middle of the work day.
The question is, by going farther out, are they getting better schools?
I won't derail this thread too much, but plenty of evidence that a middle class or affluent student will achieve the same (or better) at schools in Richardson ISD or even Woodrow Wilson HS in Dallas (would not extend that to most open enrollment DISD schools though) as they would at Allen, Wylie, Rockwall, McKinney, etc.
Moving to West Plano for the schools can make sense, moving to somewhere further out than that is not about schools, it is about getting more house for the money. Not saying that is a bad thing, but in terms of getting used to 1+hr commutes I think it is driven at least as much by housing desires as it is by schools.
I think this really depends on (1) income level and (2) educational background of the parent. Regarding (1), there's a big difference in housing choice available to a household with a $70,000 income (moderate middle class) and one with a $110,000 (upper middle class). The former is going to need "entry level" pricing which is largely not available in high-reputation school zones. If they want a sizable home, they pretty much have to go to outlying areas where school rep is OK (probably not elevated though), or settle for something closer in in a lower-reputation school zone. The latter can conceivably have good choices for homes of various sizes in better-reputation school zones. To me, this is the most defining difference between the working / moderate middle class and the upper middle class and affluent. Regarding (2), the working / moderate middle class household is less likely to be headed by graduates of 4-year colleges, as a decent blue-collar or technician's income (or dual income service workers) can get you in that range; frankly I don't think those folks are as hung up on school rep. Once you're in the upper middle income range and above, you're more likely to have at least one 4-year college grad and that household is more likely to put school rep at the top of their list. That preference from that demographic is also what tends to drive pricing in elevated school-rep areas. If they also want a larger home / land, that's more likely to put them in the long-commute category.
Last edited by LocalPlanner; 02-09-2021 at 01:17 PM..
Reason: Added a little more at the end
Also anecdotal- my brother is an upper level IT guy, and his hot take on all this is that the infrastructure has been there for a while but companies are loathe to iplement because of the aforementioned slide in productivity. For him that means he feels like he is doing his job right when everyone is able to work from home productively and everything is working smoothly. If that slide is not present then why should people have to go into the office if they don't want to, and why shouldn't companies extend more flexible work arrangements to people if they ask for them (working parents, caregivers of sick family, employees with disabilities, etc). Obviously there are many jobs like mine that are not transferable to this system but I am all for all the WFH flex we can get. That being said if companies want people in an office great, but let them have flexibility and I think it can only be beneficial for all parties. Stay at home with sick kids, get some work done, etc. We should not expect people who are ill or recovering from illness or surgery to work if they are not ready to be back working.
There’ll be a lot of flex work and people will keep moving to safer and cheaper suburbs and exurbs. A lot of companies are in suburbs too. Out of towners have the misconception that jobs are in Dallas downtown but not true. Most jobs are in Frisco so folks can live in burbs like Celina, Little Elm etc., Westlake and folks can live in Justin, Haslet, Argyle, Ponder, or Arlington with folks being able to live in Mansfield, Waxahachie, and further.
The question is, by going farther out, are they getting better schools?
I won't derail this thread too much, but plenty of evidence that a middle class or affluent student will achieve the same (or better) at schools in Richardson ISD or even Woodrow Wilson HS in Dallas (would not extend that to most open enrollment DISD schools though) as they would at Allen, Wylie, Rockwall, McKinney, etc.
Moving to West Plano for the schools can make sense, moving to somewhere further out than that is not about schools, it is about getting more house for the money. Not saying that is a bad thing, but in terms of getting used to 1+hr commutes I think it is driven at least as much by housing desires as it is by schools.
Another thing to consider are the long-term trends of a school district, especially if you're a couple with young children who haven't even started school yet but will be attending for the next 15-25 years.
The inner ring suburbs can be sort of uncertain/sketchy because of the ongoing demographic and income shifts, being that they're older and have greater diversity in their housing stock.
Conversely, with a place like Prosper, the schools can only get better for the forseeable future because it is a newer suburb where housing is only being built to attract upper middle class residents.
From the new construction prices, Prosper appears more expensive than Frisco, and soon some of the 4000-5000sf homes are going to break 1mm. Is that right? Is Prosper becoming the kind of new upscale place while Frisco become more established and more diverse at the same time?
There’ll be a lot of flex work and people will keep moving to safer and cheaper suburbs and exurbs. A lot of companies are in suburbs too. Out of towners have the misconception that jobs are in Dallas downtown but not true. Most jobs are in Frisco so folks can live in burbs like Celina, Little Elm etc., Westlake and folks can live in Justin, Haslet, Argyle, Ponder, or Arlington with folks being able to live in Mansfield, Waxahachie, and further.
There are more jobs nominally located in Downtown Dallas by far than any suburban downtown or primary business area. The last estimate I read indicated DTD had 140,000+ jobs, many of then very high paying. I also read in The DMN that pre-covid ~350,000 per day commuted somewhere into Dallas city limits for work.
I'm a big fan of the business hubs Plano, Frisco and some other burbs have become but let's be realistic.
From the new construction prices, Prosper appears more expensive than Frisco, and soon some of the 4000-5000sf homes are going to break 1mm. Is that right? Is Prosper becoming the kind of new upscale place while Frisco become more established and more diverse at the same time?
Yes, Prosper is the new Frisco and Celina is the new Prosper and things keep shifting further and further as people move out further for safety and newness.
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