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On another note, where should I look for a home in the $150-200K range? I work at UT-Arlington, so I'd like to have a 30min drive or less. From my research, it seems like the HEB area might be my best bet. But even up there it seems hard to find a house in my price range.
To be honest, as other posts have said, you have a lot of options, such as Grand Prairie, Arlington, HEB, the Mountain Creek area of Dallas. It really depends on factors such as schools, ect.
Uptown is one of the most densest, walkable in neighborhoods in Texas. If you don't consider that a "city experience" and you do for Downtown Dallas, you haven't spent a lot of time in both areas. In Uptown, there's grocery stores, clothing stores, etc, that are feet, not miles away. In Uptown, you rarely, if ever, need to go to the suburbs.
I think for Texas natives, Downtown and Uptown are "city experiences" because that's all that's really around. But for anyone who's lived/spent extended periods of time in real major cities, you quickly realize they're simply not in the same realm. Saying Uptown is a true city experience is like saying Firewheel outdoor mall is a true city experience. It's just not.
It's okay for a while, and most things are within a decent distance, but you find yourself increasingly bored and it is very limited. Transportation is another significant limitation. DART is not on par with major city transportation. Beyond this, once you venture out to the suburbs, you find much more authentic food and culture outside of Dallas. If anyone thinks the best culture and food are located in these areas, I highly recommend driving around North Texas a bit more. As for nightlife, just because Dallas has the biggest nightlife scene in the area does not mean it's even reasonably close to good. Unless you love alcohol, you will find yourself incredibly bored and in need of a car. You won't find a music scene like Philly or Little Rock in Dallas. I spend about 50/50 in the city and in the suburbs. I honestly don't know how anyone could spend 90% of their time within downtown. It is not Chicago by any means.
I'm not saying it's bad. It's simply not yet a 'real big city experience.' Maybe within 10-15 years, it will be much closer.
As for the original poster's question, the area is without a doubt becoming less affordable. By definition, this is technically a housing bubble, a rapid run-up and increase in prices over a short period of time due to increased demand and speculation. I'm assuming not too many on this message board deal with real estate in the area, but there are a large amount of rejections from banks for loans on many of these homes. They simply will not give loans on the supposed values of some of these homes (especially those in bidding wars) and they are requiring owners to cover the difference in cash if they want the house. I have seen this more and more frequently in the past year. It is not a good sign when banks are not willing to provide loans for the asking prices of these skyrocketing homes.
At the rate apartments are increasingly being built, and with the non-existent wage increase rate in this area, expect slow downs by the end of 2016 and even reductions in price in certain areas by mid-2017-2018. The price increase rates are unsustainable and are borderline unhealthy for the local economy. People frequently just look at the jobs coming to Dallas and say "this is why prices are going up, and will continue to go up." But they ignore elements such as the current income to rent/housing ratio being at an all time high, nearing 50% for many younger individuals, and over 30% for individuals 35 and older. You should see corrections begin to set in soon.
Last edited by FarAwayNick; 07-15-2016 at 12:19 AM..
It is less affordable, however DFW has endless land in all directions, so market forces will catch up. For example 50 thousand new apartment units are coming to market in about a year or so... This will bring needed inventory to reduce rents from their current heights.
Similarly new SF homes which are now targeting the +450k segment are probably already in oversupply and aren't selling as fast as last year.
It is less affordable, however DFW has endless land in all directions, so market forces will catch up. For example 50 thousand new apartment units are coming to market in about a year or so... This will bring needed inventory to reduce rents from their current heights.
Similarly new SF homes which are now targeting the +450k segment are probably already in oversupply and aren't selling as fast as last year.
I really hope so. We need more apartments in Arlington and other parts of the metro. I can't believe that a 30yr old apartment complex charges over $800/mo for a 1br. There aren't very many new complexes in Arlington.
Uptown is one of the most densest, walkable in neighborhoods in Texas. If you don't consider that a "city experience" and you do for Downtown Dallas, you haven't spent a lot of time in both areas. In Uptown, there's grocery stores, clothing stores, etc, that are feet, not miles away. In Uptown, you rarely, if ever, need to go to the suburbs.
I think the biggest issue when I compare Uptown to real cities is that Uptown is a temporary waypoint for young singles in Dallas before they get married have kids, and move on. It's not a true, thriving place to live in the sense that that type of area is for other cities.
I think the biggest issue when I compare Uptown to real cities is that Uptown is a temporary waypoint for young singles in Dallas before they get married have kids, and move on. It's not a true, thriving place to live in the sense that that type of area is for other cities.
True. It'll be interesting to see how uptown matures. Isn't it only 15ish years old?
As for nightlife, just because Dallas has the biggest nightlife scene in the area does not mean it's even reasonably close to good. Unless you love alcohol, you will find yourself incredibly bored and in need of a car. You won't find a music scene like Philly or Little Rock in Dallas. I spend about 50/50 in the city and in the suburbs. I honestly don't know how anyone could spend 90% of their time within downtown. It is not Chicago by any means.
Nightlife is definitely subjective. So it will depend on the individual on whether or not Dallas has good nightlife. You can't compare the quantity or the variety of it to Philly, the 4th largest city. Music scene is also subjective. Depends on what you like. The Little Rock comparison is absurd. What genre of music does Little Rock have that is lacking in Dallas? I highly doubt their EDM or Heavy Metal is any better than here.
I think for Texas natives, Downtown and Uptown are "city experiences" because that's all that's really around. But for anyone who's lived/spent extended periods of time in real major cities, you quickly realize they're simply not in the same realm. Saying Uptown is a true city experience is like saying Firewheel outdoor mall is a true city experience. It's just not.
It's okay for a while, and most things are within a decent distance, but you find yourself increasingly bored and it is very limited. Transportation is another significant limitation. DART is not on par with major city transportation. Beyond this, once you venture out to the suburbs, you find much more authentic food and culture outside of Dallas. If anyone thinks the best culture and food are located in these areas, I highly recommend driving around North Texas a bit more. As for nightlife, just because Dallas has the biggest nightlife scene in the area does not mean it's even reasonably close to good. Unless you love alcohol, you will find yourself incredibly bored and in need of a car. You won't find a music scene like Philly or Little Rock in Dallas. I spend about 50/50 in the city and in the suburbs. I honestly don't know how anyone could spend 90% of their time within downtown. It is not Chicago by any means.
I'm not saying it's bad. It's simply not yet a 'real big city experience.' Maybe within 10-15 years, it will be much closer.
As for the original poster's question, the area is without a doubt becoming less affordable. By definition, this is technically a housing bubble, a rapid run-up and increase in prices over a short period of time due to increased demand and speculation. I'm assuming not too many on this message board deal with real estate in the area, but there are a large amount of rejections from banks for loans on many of these homes. They simply will not give loans on the supposed values of some of these homes (especially those in bidding wars) and they are requiring owners to cover the difference in cash if they want the house. I have seen this more and more frequently in the past year. It is not a good sign when banks are not willing to provide loans for the asking prices of these skyrocketing homes.
At the rate apartments are increasingly being built, and with the non-existent wage increase rate in this area, expect slow downs by the end of 2016 and even reductions in price in certain areas by mid-2017-2018. The price increase rates are unsustainable and are borderline unhealthy for the local economy. People frequently just look at the jobs coming to Dallas and say "this is why prices are going up, and will continue to go up." But they ignore elements such as the current income to rent/housing ratio being at an all time high, nearing 50% for many younger individuals, and over 30% for individuals 35 and older. You should see corrections begin to set in soon.
There is a lot wrong with your post.
A. So far as local speculation in the housing market and prices:
1. For decades Dallas and DFW home prices have been substantially undervalued versus local real income metrics compared to other big cities. Recently, DFW has been flexing its business muscle and lots of well paid and very well paid people with existing liquidity have moved here. Clearly, this has put pressure on the local housing markets to at least decrease the real income versus housing price gap Dallas enjoyed for so long.
2. So far as the area being in a speculative bubble. First your definition is weak. The portion of price increases due to highly qualified demand (people/concerns who can pay their bills) does not contribute significantly towards a bubble - if that was the case prices in NYC, London, Tokyo and Paris and many other cities would have imploded decades ago. Speculation is another thing. You can make a passable argument that foreigners (rich people from Asia are buying homes in DFW in quantity), REITs, non-REIT real estate players of size etc. are speculating. I can make a better argument they are investing.
Simplifying a lot.....in economics speculating is some combination of the following, making a trade/entering a contract from a position of ignorance and or/weakness and/or taking exceptional downside financial risk (often 100% loses are at stake), including exposure to potentially damaging externalities. Along with the high risk specualtion often involves significant investor leverage. Speculation is like gambling. Examples include wildcatting for oil and gas, FX trading (although some FX plays are fairly safe), commodities futures - cotton, coffee, pork bellies etc. you don't know what the weather is going to do etc.
Many trades/contracts may be investments for some and speculative plays for others. I understand and invest in royalty producing trusts and barrier notes all the time. Most people should never invest in the former and only a few more in the latter. Both involve all sorts of away from the investment encumbrances - like it can months to sell a royalty trust stake. Many barrier notes are absolute garbage, akin to an institutional suicide note - a "we are going to die or become irrelevant if you and others don't invest" kind of thing.......a few are great buys.
Real estate investing right now in Dallas is taking an investment risk with solid information, leverage backed up by third party insurance in many cases and multiple third party endorsements, appraisals, inspections, agent expertise, comps etc. against the backdrop of tens of thousands of well paid people moving here over the next few years. It's unusual for an unqualified person to buy a home around here.
In 2008 and just prior housing bubbles developed because the government put pressure on lenders to make more loans to less qualified people. What may be been a decent idea soon spiraled out of control and then industry ethic fell apart. My favorite examples are the stripper in Miami who "owned" 8 homes backed up by an IRS reported income of around $33,000. Another was the guy in Las Vegas? who with a firefighter's or cops salary and roughly 1% down moved into a $750K home and then bought more homes. We are none of that kind of thing here.
B. Private sector wages:
1. Dallas wages have increased every quarter since 4Q-2011 except one.
2. Dallas wages have increased in all but 7 quarters since 4-Q 2006.
3. Dallas wages have increased every quarter since 4Q-2013.
Over the recent past Dallas' wage growth has been similar to Boston and better than NYC, LA, Chicago, Atlanta, Miami, Phoenix, St. Louis, Kansas City and many others.
This info. is available from a lot of sources....the payscale.com index is probably the easiest to use.
C. Across the big cities Dallas' rent cost verses income metrics are among the best.
With all due respect that data does not make your point.
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