Dallas housing market 1985-2016 (Plano, Irving: sales, real estate market, 2015)

[Walter Benjamin]

Although this story focuses on the overall housing market in Dallas, I think it's at least as interesting to try to figure out what it says about sub-markets. The newspaper tracked assessed values for 14 different houses across Dallas County, every few years since 1985.

14 North Texas houses show how D-FW real estate market has changed in last 35 years | Real Estate | Dallas News

We can sort them into groups by how much they appreciated from the earliest data point in 1985 to the present one in 2016 (+ or - means at the higher or lower end of that group).

Thoughts:
I assume it's quite possible that the double or triple increases in value reflect renovations?
Looking at the 2x or 3x increases, it appears that central location, schools and historical and/or renovateable architecture are a good bet... But why didn't Prestonwood see that gain?
I assume this period happens to coincide with white flight from DeSoto, whereas white flight from Southwest Dallas must have taken place before this period... Or at least that's what the enrollment numbers on nearby DeSoto elementary schools suggest.
* Ruby Young Elementary (Desoto) enrollment 1988-2015
* Cockrell Hill Elementary (Desoto) enrollment 1988-2015
If only we had a crystal ball for the next 30 years...

Assessed value tripled
East Dallas (Hollywood Heights)
Oak Cliff (Beverly Hills?)

Assessed value doubled
University Park +
Coppell +
Richardson
North Dallas -
Lake Highlands -

Assessed value up 33%
Irving +
Prestonwood
Cedar Hill
South Dallas
Southwest Dallas (3908 Bisbee Dr.)

Assessed value flat* (of course this means a real loss, due to inflation)
Southwest Dallas (5520 Cedar Ridge Dr.)

Assessed value declined 20%
DeSoto

[Katana49]

I really wish this article would have included Plano as well. My family moved here in 1985, and considered buying in University Park, or Highland Park, but ended up in Plano. UP/HP values have tripled during that time frame, while Plano more or less doubled.

[TurtleCreek80]

$1 in 1985 is worth about $2.25 today. Every house that didn't double in value over the last 30 years lost value in terms of purchasing power. Looking at these homes through that lens, 7/14 lost value, 5/14 are basically worth today what they were in 1985, and only 2 had a real increase that outpaced inflation.

[Katana49]

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

$1 in 1985 is worth about $2.25 today. Every house that didn't double in value over the last 30 years lost value in terms of purchasing power. Looking at these homes through that lens, 7/14 lost value, 5/14 are basically worth today what they were in 1985, and only 2 had a real increase that outpaced inflation.

Eh, it's not quite as cut and dried as that. Your inflation numbers are accurate, but a home's value doesn't follow inflation in lock step. There are a lot of things that have reduced the cost to build a home over the last 30 years. What once was custom, is now mass produced, etc. And of course, as homes age they will typically lose value from a new purchase price, usually for several years, even in a rising market.

[frisco19542]

The fact is prior to the period of 1985 -2000 the dfw area was the worst place to buy a house compared to the rest of the county.

Real estate was actually a bad investment here until a few years ago. Of course this was because there a huge crash in the late 80s here. So in many ways we are seeing catch up. Prior to the crash 80s Dallas was actually a very expensive place to live.

[transientbeingz]

Add in 1-2 percent maintainence costs, at least two
Percent property taxes, one time title/closing costs, higher utility bills and you can see why people
Say homes should not be used as an investment, but as a place to live!

[WorldKlas]

Homes in very old neighborhoods like East Dallas or Oak Cliff often have had major renovations, so the sales prices don't necessarily mean purely market increases. I have not read the article but comparisons make sense if all the houses compared were not updated in that time period to show pure market movement/profit.

[TheOverdog]

Of course the serious upgrades are required to maintain high prices, because that is the how housing is actually *supposed* to work. If a home, neighborhood, city isn't upgraded in 30 years, then it's probably in serious decline, and falling to a lower income demographic than the previous purchaser.

Witness the Desoto house on 2.69 acres and at its peak when built in 1984. It's not increased in price in 30 years! Person built and bought on the wrong end of DFW.

Also, the houses built in 1984 were probably worse in nearly every way than a modern home - the '80s was certainly not a period of high quality custom homes being built. That period was well into mass production but well before modern design or energy efficiency and not nearly old enough to be considered classic. The worst of all worlds.

What's also interesting is the Highland Park house at $325k with 2600 sq feet on .22 of an acre is more or less a median sized DFW home, but would still be above the median home price and value in the majority of DFW cities today. That's how you increase your home's value - copy what Highland Park does.