DFW seems a bit immune to this?? (Dallas, Plano: condos, townhomes)

[europeanone]

When I first moved here from the northeast 4 years ago, I couldn't help but realize that DFW had not been affected by the economic crisis the same way that, say, the tri-state area of NY/NJ/CT was. People I spoke with who were here during that time confirmed that. How lucky for everyone here!

I just came across this article Death of Suburbia series overview - Business Insider
and wonder if we are sitting on a bubble with respect to malls, etc. Stonebriar seems to be doing well despite the troubles that Macy's and JC Penney are having.

The article also mentions that companies are ditching suburbia for city relocations. But the opposite seems to be happening here: Plano and Frisco and such seem to be overflowing with corporate headquarters locations.

And the idea mentioned in the article that McMansions are not selling well does not seem to apply in these North Dallas parts.

I'm not complaining -- the economic situation here is great for my bank account. But I wonder if people who have never loved anywhere else in the country believe this prosperity is normal. And if it's a bubble, will it one day finally burst? And then what?

[Katana49]

I've lived in several places that somewhat mirror the Dallas suburbs. Overland Park, KS is a lot like Plano in that regard, large suburban homes yet not too far from downtown. It's not a troubled area. Scottsdale AZ is also a bit similar, however they did have large drops in home pricing, but that was mainly due to housing costs spiraling due to speculation of future values, much like California and Florida. But they are back on track now, and with other metro housing areas in high demand, I doubt Scottsdale will have to worry about another speculative bubble for a long time.

Jacksonville FL is somewhat unique... no one wants to live downtown, the action is at the beach, which of course is not where all the major companies have set up shop. So suburbia is the name of the game there. Prices there did fall, but they are also back on track. Causes for this are also due to speculation, it wasn't as bad as say Miami or Ft. Lauderdale, but prices rose far more than fundamentals would allow for given the cost of living and general economy and wages there.

Atlanta is also a good example where suburban prices are booming. I don't see an unwarranted bubble there either, it's just strong demand.

As far as malls go, the writing was on the wall for them 20 years ago. Just take a look at Prestonwood mall, which you've probably never heard of, as it's been torn down and is now Prestonwood Town Center. Collin Creek will be the next to go, and they'll most likely redevelop that space as a mix between shops, townhomes/condos, and office space. Basically, somewhat of a mirror to Shops at Legacy.

Stonebriar is sitting right in the middle of explosive housing growth, with homes $500k and up being the norm. Even if mall attendance is dropping, they are still in close proximity to a ton of affluent families. Collin Creek, not so much. Stonebriar will be fine for many years to come.

[BigDGeek]

Originally Posted by Katana49

As far as malls go, the writing was on the wall for them 20 years ago. Just take a look at Prestonwood mall, which you've probably never heard of, as it's been torn down and is now Prestonwood Town Center. Collin Creek will be the next to go, and they'll most likely redevelop that space as a mix between shops, townhomes/condos, and office space. Basically, somewhat of a mirror to Shops at Legacy.

Nah...Valley View is next to go. They're demolishing it as we speak.

[Johnhw2]

The area is different than many I too lived in the NE, some rest county NJ. The difference is jobs. As long as good jobs are growing here there is no serious bubble. When back in bernardsville, no recently, visiting friends on a 40 acre property there I couldn't help but notice empty campuses of ATT and some pharma campuses. They were thriving when I lived there a couple of decades back.

Texans generally like business and growth, most places don't. Scottsdale is too highly dependent on retirees without a large number of good job creators for its size. Even AMEX is primarily a call center I believe, some high tech is there but not as diverse or large ass here proportionately.

Some call it luck and there is some involved but working with business is rare and makes a difference too.

[TurtleCreek80]

I've written about this before but we are about 20 years into a 50-year boom period for DFW as we transform from a regional city famous for its football team, a tv show, and assassinating JFK to a major international center for commerce. DFW is to the 21st century what Chicago / LA / New York were to the 20th century. We are home to Fortune 500 companies that span almost a dozen industries, not just O&G or finance companies.

These are the key growth fundamentals:
-companies big & small choosing DFW for their HQ's and major regional offices
-an influx of population growth from around the county & world
-pro business legislative climate
-low overall tax burden for individuals (yes, rising values cause rising property tax rates, but that is only one type of tax burden and the cumulative burden is still lower than average for the US here in TX)

As long as those are in place (or relatively better here than the rest of the US during a national recession), I believe we'll continue on the trajectory we're on until we become a mature old Chicago or NYC. It's a great time to live in DFW.

As far as the death of the suburbs, much of the expected millenial migration into cities as they begin their careers and families has been disproven. Millenials are tending to take after their parents in their quest for safe, suburban neighborhoods with green space and good schools. DFW is somewhat unique in that there are four major job centers around the metroplex (DT-Uptown Dallas, DT FW, Las Colinas, Plano Legacy corridor). This is fabulous as it really cuts down on the amount of traffic there would be if all the jobs were concentrated in DT Dallas. We're more like LA thab Chicago or NYC in that regard.

[Cheesesteak Cravings]

New Orleans was shielded pretty well from the downturn because there was so much federal money being pumped in to recover from Katrina in 05. Just depends on where you are.

[BLDSoon]

No city anywhere is 'immune' to downturns.

[Katana49]

Originally Posted by BigDGeek

Nah...Valley View is next to go. They're demolishing it as we speak.

Oops. I thought it had already been torn down. Well, once they're done there, they can move on up to Plano and get started there LOL.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by BLDSoon

No city anywhere is 'immune' to downturns.

Sure, immune is a strong word. However, over the last several national recessions Dallas in particular and Texas to lesser degree entered each recession later than most of the country, suffered less and exited sooner than most of the country.

[Johnhw2]

Downtowns occur when job growth stops or even more severely when job numbers decline. No one is fully immune from this happening even current strong job growth marketplace like DFW. But as noted by TC80 on a relative basis we are less prone to see as sharp a job decline as most other cities. We have a diverse job base. We are hardly an oil and gas town in my view which speaks to our job diversity with mitigates down turn in job risk. It is a good place to be now and for the foreseeable future economically even in national or global slowdowns due to our relative job growth strengths most mentioned by TC80.