Rising Property Taxes...When will having no state income tax no longer matter? (Dallas: insurance, mortgage)

[NP78]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

I'm not arguing for harrishawke's general point, but your statistics don't disprove his or her claim. He or she said that DFW is not a top destination for domestic migration, which is not the same thing as saying domestic migration doesn't exceed international immigration. Again, I know next to nothing about what the comparative migration rates look like for DFW, but you are addressing a point that is different than the one harrishawke made. It is possible that domestic migration exceeds international immigration by a wide margin and DFW is still not a "top destination for most Americans."

I was not addressing that one single line in his post, but rather his overall suggestion that housing demand in DFW (the topic at hand) is being driven by "foreign workers". His suggestion is incorrect and the migration inflows data supports my point. The housing demand is being driven by continued migration to DFW and the largest source is domestic.

[harrishawke]

In the last 5 years, top Domestic Migration was to Oregon. In 2016, Texas and California had flat net migration:

Here are the most popular states people are moving to

[NP78]

Originally Posted by harrishawke

In the last 5 years, top Domestic Migration was to Oregon. In 2016, Texas and California had flat net migration:

Here are the most popular states people are moving to

Not sure about the United Van Lines data, but we weren't discussing Texas, but rather DFW. The population growth in the valley is certainly much more dependent upon immigration than DFW for example.

Here is some info that is metro area specific:

https://cdn.dallaschamber.org/wp-con...-Patterns1.pdf


The 2014 data had more from LA and less from NY and Chicago, but same basic data and I would anticipate with the recent company relocations that Southern CA is probably again overtaking NY and maybe Chicago as the largest source of incoming residents in terms of other metro areas.

It's not shown in this data, but in other sources it is also clear that DFW remains a common migration destination for residents from other areas in TX/OK/etc. that are not within the large metro area data compiled here.

To be clear though, I am not saying we don't have a significant international presence in DFW (just peruse this board for inquiries regarding Indian communities as an example). I don't think that is such a bad thing, but it is only part of why the population growth in DFW is so extreme. DFW is on balance attracting large population groups from many areas, for better or for worse.

[Soonhun]

Originally Posted by harrishawke

In the last 5 years, top Domestic Migration was to Oregon. In 2016, Texas and California had flat net migration:

Here are the most popular states people are moving to

Interesting. That link seems to imply that it is actually high income people disproportionately moving to Texas, with lower income people leaving. Thought it would be the opposite based on how some people on CD describe the state.

Anyway, Texas still ranks 12th based on that source, I would hardly call an eight point difference "flat," especially considering the poor performance of most other states.

[Runnn]

Originally Posted by SolarCoaster

$225k property here is basically as burdensome as a $350k property in Sacramento, which I moved from


Except the $225k property here was built in 1953 and there's a distinct chance I could get shot going to the store on foot, and in California the property is being built in 2017 as I type this and is in a fantastic area with every amenity possible, fantastic schools, non-existent crime, and better weather

But that's ok, it's 'cheaper' to live in Texas

Love it!

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by Runnn

Love it!

Except that guy's claims fell to ashes upon cursory examination.

[kyam11]

Originally Posted by CREW747

DFW property Taxes...When will having no state income tax no longer matter?

Texas is amongst top 5 highest states for property tax rates.If values keep soaring and the rate stays the same,will no state income tax no longer be a major factor for why people choose to move here?If a house that sold for $200,000 in say 2010,now sells for $400,000, that original mortgage is obviously no where near what it once was with such an increase in property value.Homeowners insurance goes up with that value as well.

What are your opinions and predictions?Will people continue to move here in droves even though this area is no longer what most people used to consider a bargain?

There are jobs here yes,but I do feel like the area lacks other factors to make up for the increasing cost of living here.The excessive heat,lack of scenery,access to nature and tornadoes would have been a deal breaker for us if we had to spend what we would now on our house that we purchased roughly 12 years ago here.The property tax costs per year alone on our house today would have made us think twice about doing the move.How many people feel similar?If you do,where would you consider moving?

Property tax rates are irrelevant for comparisons. True $ going out are and Dallas is very cheap for what you get compared to the rest of the major metro areas. I came to Dallas from CA partly because of extremely low property taxes.

[IamMac]

https://www.dmagazine.com/publicatio...losing-ground/

Compared to coastal markets, Dallas is cheap, but Dallas is getting increasingly less affordable.

[livedeverywhere123]

To answer OPs question. Bottom line is, it really just depends on how much money you make.

If you make less than 100k, DFW will start to become too expensive. For somebody making 50-60k, you're better off in a state like Georgia or North Carolina, with a state income tax and lower property taxes.

If you're a family making 150k-250k a year in Texas, it doesn't make any sense to freak out about paying 6-8k in property taxes a year. If you moved to Georgia, you'd be paying 6% state income tax (approx 10-12k a year) plus property taxes of around 2k a year. That also doesn't include the money most people make in stocks or mutual funds. Paying an extra 6% on top of the 15% capital gains tax is a big deal for someone investing consistently.

DFW is also extremely cheap for everything not housing related. Gas, utilities, food prices, healthcare, restaurants, etc. As long as Texas doesn't have a state income tax, people making money will always want to live there.

[Hacker1234]

This is why we moved from TX to WA, I was thinking if I am going to be paying this much money to live I might as well move to a nice place. So we made a killing on our home in TX and now living in a wonderful place.