Is the DFW real estate market cooling off? (Austin: incomes, property taxes)

[Mr. Clutch]

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

I can't find it now but I read last week that Texas A&M Real Estate economist was projecting about 100,000 people would relocate permanently from Houston to DFW. Given Houston metro's population is 6-7M, it's not a huge migration expected. And my guess is the bulk of the ones who do relocate are renters not home buyers.

I'm not sure how that could even be projected at this point. There's really only three groups of people that could feasibly quickly relocate 1) those that lost everything, 2) renters who may or may not have housing issues due to the storm, 3)retirees or those otherwise not in the workforce that also rent. I think most people that would move would be due to 1 or 2. Neither Houston nor DFW is much of a retirement hub so most people will need to have a job - that will drive relocations more than anything else.

Personally, I don't see the energy companies, refiners, nor hospitals/medical services that make up most of Houston's employment moving anywhere - but I'm happy to hear arguments to the contrary. A net loss of 100K people to only one specific region implies that the study you cite is projecting hundreds of thousands of people to leave the area - I definitely don't see that happening unless a few major energy or other large companies left the region.

Maybe it will though, who knows. Everything is kind of in the air at this point.

[BigDGeek]

Originally Posted by Rakin

Much like after Katrina, many probably will be Section 8. Many may even be Katrina refugees.

After Katrina, there was a shortage of building materials and labor. Even getting an Inspector in DFW was difficult cause they were in NOLA doing Insurance adjusting.

It could cause home prices here to go up even more.

If 100k people relocate here from Houston, it'll definitely spike rents.


I really hope it doesn't make prices here go higher. I'm sick of higher property taxes.

[Mr. Clutch]

Just looking at some old data, the top end estimate for the number of people that permanently relocated from New Orleans to Houston alone is somewhere between 25K and 40K. Not sure how many permanently relocated to other places, but that gives a rough order of magnitude for what the impact looked like after Katrina.

The 100K figure seems a bit pessimistic, especially considering Houston is much stronger economically than New Orleans was and the damage wasn't nearly as widespread.

[TurtleCreek80]

Originally Posted by Mr. Clutch

I'm not sure how that could even be projected at this point. There's really only three groups of people that could feasibly quickly relocate 1) those that lost everything, 2) renters who may or may not have housing issues due to the storm, 3)retirees or those otherwise not in the workforce that also rent. I think most people that would move would be due to 1 or 2. Neither Houston nor DFW is much of a retirement hub so most people will need to have a job - that will drive relocations more than anything else.

Personally, I don't see the energy companies, refiners, nor hospitals/medical services that make up most of Houston's employment moving anywhere - but I'm happy to hear arguments to the contrary. A net loss of 100K people to only one specific region implies that the study you cite is projecting hundreds of thousands of people to leave the area - I definitely don't see that happening unless a few major energy or other large companies left the region.

Maybe it will though, who knows. Everything is kind of in the air at this point.

Projections are based on last history from similar events. Houston is 5 or 6X the size that New Orleans was back in 2005 so to be projecting a migration that is only about 2-2.5X the size of Katrina's outflow directionally makes sense.

And just generalizing based on what I know about Katrina refugees...it's the renters with "McJobs" who lost everything who made up most of the permanent movement (ie, the ones who took shelter in Houston mainly and just never moved back), not the corporate/ white collar workers who likely had income and insurance coverage while in rebuilding mode.

We'll see. It will obviously be quite a few years before any trends stick.

[Laminate7]

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

Projections are based on last history from similar events. Houston is 5 or 6X the size that New Orleans was back in 2005 so to be projecting a migration that is only about 2-2.5X the size of Katrina's outflow directionally makes sense.

And just generalizing based on what I know about Katrina refugees...it's the renters with "McJobs" who lost everything who made up most of the permanent movement (ie, the ones who took shelter in Houston mainly and just never moved back), not the corporate/ white collar workers who likely had income and insurance coverage while in rebuilding mode.

We'll see. It will obviously be quite a few years before any trends stick.

might get some Florida migration as well

[serger]

Originally Posted by Mr. Clutch

Just looking at some old data, the top end estimate for the number of people that permanently relocated from New Orleans to Houston alone is somewhere between 25K and 40K. Not sure how many permanently relocated to other places, but that gives a rough order of magnitude for what the impact looked like after Katrina.

The 100K figure seems a bit pessimistic, especially considering Houston is much stronger economically than New Orleans was and the damage wasn't nearly as widespread.

As terrible as Harvey was, Katrina destroyed many more housing units, so 100K figure for permanently leaving is not believable, imo.

[happycrow]

I just have to wonder whether anybody even considers PTI any more, or whether California-style PTIs in the 3-4 range are now considered "DFW affordable?" Even bottom-of-barrel 3/2s like the sort I live in (and most Dallas City-Data people wouldn't be caught dead in) are starting to creep towards 200k.

[turf3]

Originally Posted by happycrow

I just have to wonder whether anybody even considers PTI any more, or whether California-style PTIs in the 3-4 range are now considered "DFW affordable?" Even bottom-of-barrel 3/2s like the sort I live in (and most Dallas City-Data people wouldn't be caught dead in) are starting to creep towards 200k.

Huh?

[BigDGeek]

Originally Posted by Laminate7

might get some Florida migration as well

I don't know many people in Florida but so far all of them are heading for Georgia.

[jdallas]

Originally Posted by happycrow

I just have to wonder whether anybody even considers PTI any more, or whether California-style PTIs in the 3-4 range are now considered "DFW affordable?" Even bottom-of-barrel 3/2s like the sort I live in (and most Dallas City-Data people wouldn't be caught dead in) are starting to creep towards 200k.

Part Time Income?
Pakistani Transportation Institute?
Pulled Together Industrial space?
Permanent Trailer Installation?