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Old 08-14-2018, 12:37 PM
 
559 posts, read 935,575 times
Reputation: 318

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Quote:
Originally Posted by houstonview View Post
Job growth and low supply has drove the market, but wages have not increased enough to keep up with how fast things went up & rate changes.

Point well made..... Looking at the current new home prices, builders can't sell at this price on a sustainable period from now on. They have to come down. I am not a statistician but prices will go down slowly in next 12 to 18 months. Houses built for $400K in Frisco 4 years ago are now built for $650K to $700K. With interest rates rising and current salary range for folks in DFW, it's not possible to sustain prices at this level or a level above. It has to come down and it will come down soon.
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Old 08-14-2018, 01:15 PM
 
242 posts, read 360,234 times
Reputation: 307
Quote:
Originally Posted by dallas_cowboy View Post
Point well made..... Looking at the current new home prices, builders can't sell at this price on a sustainable period from now on. They have to come down. I am not a statistician but prices will go down slowly in next 12 to 18 months. Houses built for $400K in Frisco 4 years ago are now built for $650K to $700K. With interest rates rising and current salary range for folks in DFW, it's not possible to sustain prices at this level or a level above. It has to come down and it will come down soon.
Builders will just build townhomes for 400k instead of homes if there is too much supply. Since existing larger homes will not built in numbers you will see them still increase in value.

DFW will be bigger then Chicago metro area in a dozen years and that means harder to get homes in good locations. Not much available land in prime development areas. Sure you will be able to get a cheaper house but that will be in East Texas not what has been traditionally DFW.
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Old 08-14-2018, 01:33 PM
 
4,212 posts, read 6,898,754 times
Reputation: 7177
I owned a house for 7 years before moving to Dallas. I see living in Dallas for my foreseeable future (got plucked for a job here, made it worthwhile to move) but my plan is just to rent. We don't plan to have kids and are very happy with our 830ft2 apartment. We could afford, but can't really justify, houses in the area we live/would want to live. The supply of houses in the size I would want in the areas we want are just too large and thus tying up too much money in square footage we don't need. If anything we might end up in a townhome or something at some point.
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Old 08-14-2018, 06:06 PM
 
9 posts, read 9,817 times
Reputation: 15
These are just my thoughts and my observations...

Quote:
Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80 View Post
You and the other poster are going to have a damn hard time convincing me that prices are dropping here NOW when July (the slowest month in real estate, and the month that JUST ended 14 days ago) had a +6% gain in home values to LY here in DFW.
I am sorry to say. This is the first time i am hearing that July is the lowest month of sales.
https://www.zillow.com/blog/magic-wi...faster-193229/

Quote:
Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80 View Post
Again, listing price reductions do not always correlate with an actual drop in value. It’s way too early to “call” a declining market in DFW, especially since not one single month of home sale prices in the last 6-7 years has been lower than the prior year.
It is not about just one or two houses. Several of them. Till last year houses were selling 20k or 30k more than asking price and there were getting multiple offers within 2, 3 days. Now most of the houses staying in market more than 60 days.


Quote:
Yes, prices don’t go up in a straight line forever. But except in extremely rare cases, they do go up forever over the very long term.
Agreed. But this time DFW market is different. Prices never went up drastically in short span of time in DFW history. Next few months is very crucial. We have wait and watch
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Old 08-14-2018, 07:11 PM
 
Location: DFW
40,951 posts, read 49,150,612 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rztquery View Post

It is not about just one or two houses. Several of them. Till last year houses were selling 20k or 30k more than asking price and there were getting multiple offers within 2, 3 days. Now most of the houses staying in market more than 60 days.

That's a pretty broad and inaccurate statement. Even last year it depended on the price range and location.
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Old 08-14-2018, 07:38 PM
 
13,194 posts, read 28,280,416 times
Reputation: 13142
Quote:
Originally Posted by rztquery View Post
These are just my thoughts and my observations...



I am sorry to say. This is the first time i am hearing that July is the lowest month of sales.
https://www.zillow.com/blog/magic-wi...faster-193229/
Again, Real.Estate.Is.Local.

Nationally, July might be an ok month for sales but in Dallas where its 100+ degrees, it’s slower. Our “spring” market starts in mid-March vs May 1 as quoted in the article you linked. I lived in NY, the market there is totally different. It’s still snowing in March, the best weather is May-October, and school starts in late September and goes until mid-June.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rztquery View Post
It is not about just one or two houses. Several of them. Till last year houses were selling 20k or 30k more than asking price and there were getting multiple offers within 2, 3 days. Now most of the houses staying in market more than 60 days.
Yes, there is more inventory on the market this year. That does not indicate falling prices. And there are still places in the metroplex where homes are selling with multiple offers $20k+ over asking. My friends literally where just in that situation as sellers in East Dallas.

Also, DOM is not a great indicator of sales prices. July sales from MLS:
Park Cities: prices +9%, DOM -28%
East Dallas: prices +20%, DOM +9%. DOM avg 37 days
Lake Highlands: prices +3%, DOM +3%. DOM avg 36 days
Plano: prices +2%, DOM +38% but still VERY low at 33 days.
Frisco: prices +6%, DOM +21%. 46 DOM Avg
Coppell: prices +12%, DOM -18%. DOM avg 36
Allen: prices +1%, DOM +17% but still VERY low at 28 days

Of 16 major MLS areas in DFW, only 1 is taking more than 60 days to sell (N Dallas south of LBJ, which is the 2nd highest priced market in DFW and has consistently had the highest amount of inventory so no trend change there.) The only 3 other area close to 60 days are Park Cities & Southlake, the other 2 most expensive MLS zones. All 3 are still seeing appreciating prices. Rich people buy homes when their wealth fear factor is low. Rich people are feeling pretty optimistic right now with continued strong stock market and a tax windfall courtesy of the Trump administration,

The other 13 areas all are sitting at 4-5 weeks to sell a house on average. That’s basically an immediate offer in 0-2 weeks, option period, and time to close.


Your “thoughts” are completely distorted from the reality of this market.


Quote:
Originally Posted by rztquery View Post
Agreed. But this time DFW market is different. Prices never went up drastically in short span of time in DFW history. Next few months is very crucial. We have wait and watch
Prices never went up drastically as in the past 6-8 years, but can you also name another 7ish year period where the DFW population exploded by 1.1M? An almost 20% leap in population in a relatively short time transforms a metro area. You are right that DFW market is different now. You are just getting the “effect” part of that equation wrong.
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Old 08-14-2018, 09:33 PM
 
18,557 posts, read 7,361,047 times
Reputation: 11372
Quote:
Originally Posted by houstonview View Post
Sacramento & Seattle are first to actually have drops.

It’s crazy seeing the replies in thread, everyone thinks prices will go up forever, realtors also.
Why wouldn't they? And that's a serious question.

My wife is in commercial real estate (front end), and she's been predicting a slowdown for a year, but a slowdown and a price-drop are different things. So are Texas and California.
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Old 08-14-2018, 09:49 PM
 
18,557 posts, read 7,361,047 times
Reputation: 11372
Quote:
Originally Posted by rztquery View Post
These are just my thoughts and my observations...

I am sorry to say. This is the first time i am hearing that July is the lowest month of sales.
https://www.zillow.com/blog/magic-wi...faster-193229/

It is not about just one or two houses. Several of them. Till last year houses were selling 20k or 30k more than asking price and there were getting multiple offers within 2, 3 days. Now most of the houses staying in market more than 60 days.

Agreed. But this time DFW market is different. Prices never went up drastically in short span of time in DFW history.
Prices did not go up drastically. They went up about 4% per year over the last 11 years. And about 4% per year over the seven years before that. How is that supposed to be drastic?


https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DAXRNSA

Last edited by hbdwihdh378y9; 08-14-2018 at 10:16 PM..
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Old 08-15-2018, 07:21 AM
 
207 posts, read 206,715 times
Reputation: 126
Just looked at few cities in zillow

Frisco
https://www.zillow.com/frisco-tx/home-values/
Buyer's market
Less healthy

Coppell
https://www.zillow.com/coppell-tx/home-values/
Buyer's market
Less healthy

Lewisville
https://www.zillow.com/lewisville-tx/home-values/
Not buyer's market and not sellers market. it is in the middle
Stable

Keep in mind, this facts are in busiest month of the year. This fall season will be crucial
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Old 08-15-2018, 07:35 AM
 
13,194 posts, read 28,280,416 times
Reputation: 13142
Quote:
Originally Posted by MinesotaUser1 View Post
Just looked at few cities in zillow

Frisco
https://www.zillow.com/frisco-tx/home-values/
Buyer's market
Less healthy

Coppell
https://www.zillow.com/coppell-tx/home-values/
Buyer's market
Less healthy

Lewisville
https://www.zillow.com/lewisville-tx/home-values/
Not buyer's market and not sellers market. it is in the middle
Stable

Keep in mind, this facts are in busiest month of the year. This fall season will be crucial
For the 2,000,000,0000th time, Zillow is CRAP.

They rate the “health” of the Plano and Coppell markets as “very unhealthy” with 3% of homes underwater and .4% of homes behind on mortgages and they rate the city of Dallas as “very healthy” with 5% of homes underwater and 1% of homes behind on mortgage.

Errors in their algorithms like that drive me crazy and make me question every single other dubious “rating” on their website.
https://www.zillow.com/dallas-tx/home-values/

Don’t you stop and think why Zillow is rating Frisco - a place where homes are selling for +6% more than last year in an average of 6 weeks as a “cold, buyers” market? WTF do you think an actual COLD market looks like???
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