Softening in RE market?? (Houston, Dallas: fit in, manufacturing, pollution)

[djslakor]

Originally Posted by houstonview

However these are homes that are priced good in the $300-400 range. 2 stories seem to sit longer & homes that are overpriced.

Just be glad you snagged what you consider a great deal. It's done now.

As Conor McGregor says, the numbers simply do not lie. DFW sale prices are up YoY, sales VOLUME is down a whopping 1% from an all time high in 2017 (for people who can't translate this ... it is STILL VERY HIGH).

I think we hit a period of asinine listing prices for a bit there to capitalize on the mania, and as others mentioned, those listings sat and sat. Once the price was set to something appropriate, bam contract.

There is no doom and gloom to see. Your house will be worth more in a year, congrats. ;-)

[MinesotaUser1]

Originally Posted by EDS_

Oh my. If memory serves this is 4th time a doom and gloomer has posted that same piece in this thread. Congratulations!

You want to see latest one?

Dallas among 10 U.S. markets hit hardest by a housing slowdown

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...using-slowdown

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by MinesotaUser1

You want to see latest one?

Dallas among 10 U.S. markets hit hardest by a housing slowdown

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...using-slowdown

I read the DMN every single day.

[mSooner]

"There's a rebalancing that needs to happen," Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac, told Realtor.com. "Prices have risen so high in some of these markets that it's very tough from an affordability perspective [for buyers]. ... It's not surprising to me that we're seeing a little bit of a leveling off."

Median home prices in North Texas are still up about 5 percent compared with 2017 levels. But that's a much smaller number than the double-digit annual gains seen in recent years.

From the DMN article. That doesn't really scream housing apocalypse to me.

[djslakor]

Originally Posted by mSooner

From the DMN article. That doesn't really scream housing apocalypse to me.

It's also just one guy's opinion. People cite opinions as sources of truth.

[mSooner]

My point is the article itself as a whole isn't really particularly negative.

[synchronicity]

It's not the be-all and end-all, but I generally check the Case-Shiller home price indices for the cities where they do them. For Dallas (which is the entire DFW MSA), the most recent value, for September, is 187.44 (January 2000 is 100). This is a DROP from July's peak value of...er, 187.49. So...uh, it's a MASSIVE DROP of (.05/187.49) er...uh, just under 0.03%.

I'm personally quaking in my boots here. (note that these prices are NOT seasonally adjusted. If you do adjust it, the index is still going up).

Now, certainly, it is possible that housing prices could drop considerably from here. In the prior cycle, the index peaked at 126.47 in June of 2007, declined to 117.76 by February of 2008 (a drop of almost 7% in only 8 months), then rebounded to 123.21 in July, then down 112.26 by February of 2009 (apparently February is a good month to buy!) then back up...well, you can look at all the data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/DAXRNSA.txt
Long story short, in general prices went up in the spring and summer and then dropped in the fall and winter, but from late 2010 to early 2012 they generally stayed in a range between 112 and 117, until the finally started going up again for good in summer of 2012, getting above 120 and not dropping below. Prices increased from ~120.5 at the end of 2012 to the aforementioned 187.49, an annualized increase of about 7% over that entire 6.5 years (about 55% total)

Obviously, we can't expect home prices to keep going at that rapid of a clip forever. But note that the drop from peak to trough last time was only about 10%. COULD it be greater this time? Sure. Home prices only went up 26% from 2000 to 2007, after all. Also, home prices peaked in 2007 but didn't exceed that level again until until mid 2013, almost 6 full years. If you bought in 2007, that was not a fun time.


That said, It's not like DFW is some outlier of incredible home price increases. Probably the most similar city on the Case-Shiller list is Denver (in terms of how it is currently growing, but also its home price history: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=mpv6) Denver's home prices have grown faster than DFW's.

Of course, there's always the Bay Area (which was already much higher than DFW in 2000, so the price results are even more extreme than this graph reflects):

Now, by contrast, Chicago's home prices peaked in 2006-2007, and are STILL well below those values. So cities are different, no duh. Just saying that DFW is not off-the-wall crazy compared to many other parts of the nation, and if it declines, I don't expect prices to crater. But it still could kinda stink for recent purchasers for a while, especially if they foolishly bought baking in expectations of appreciation.

[kyam11]

Synchronicity please stop with these common sense posts they are not appreciated by the gloom and doomers.

[synchronicity]

Seems like with some people, when housing prices increase they complain because A) it's more difficult to buy, or 2) their property taxes are going up. When housing prices look like they'll decline (or actually do), they complain because housing prices are declining or OMG they might drop Any Time Now, oh noes!
Here's a thought - buy a house as a home first when it makes sense to do so, and as a repository of value second. Realize that many of the same factors that make a house a good home also make it a decent investment (as far as houses go). Don't try to "time" markets (good advice for pretty much anything). Don't spend too much on a house, and buy with regard to the time frame you expect to be there - in general, if you won't be there for more than a couple years, question whether it even makes sense to buy (and DEFINITELY don't spend too much).
Stick to those rules and you should be fine. Yes, there will be periods when home prices decline, but if you're living there for 20 years and years six through nine have a 15% drop, then you just pay less in property taxes and refi if interest rates drop and keep on going, because you weren't going to sell then, anyway.
(usual caveats about researching individual neighborhoods and stuff, as the overall stats are for entire metros, but that's part of the homebuying process regardless)

[justsomeguy]

Originally Posted by synchronicity

Seems like with some people, when housing prices increase they complain because A) it's more difficult to buy, or 2) their property taxes are going up. When housing prices look like they'll decline (or actually do), they complain because housing prices are declining or OMG they might drop Any Time Now, oh noes!
Here's a thought - buy a house as a home first when it makes sense to do so, and as a repository of value second. Realize that many of the same factors that make a house a good home also make it a decent investment (as far as houses go). Don't try to "time" markets (good advice for pretty much anything). Don't spend too much on a house, and buy with regard to the time frame you expect to be there - in general, if you won't be there for more than a couple years, question whether it even makes sense to buy (and DEFINITELY don't spend too much).
Stick to those rules and you should be fine. Yes, there will be periods when home prices decline, but if you're living there for 20 years and years six through nine have a 15% drop, then you just pay less in property taxes and refi if interest rates drop and keep on going, because you weren't going to sell then, anyway.
(usual caveats about researching individual neighborhoods and stuff, as the overall stats are for entire metros, but that's part of the homebuying process regardless)

Well...for people that didn't live here prior to the boom time, it's frustrating to move here, then buy at the top of the market and then watch your largest asset potentially decline in value....