Recession 2019 (Howe, Happy: house prices, buying, disposal)

[calgirlinnc]

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

I don’t know how a discussion of what has happened on Wall Street over the last 24 months can be had without including Trump. His tax cuts, his trade policies, his economy. That’s why people voted for him, right? Of course a “successful businessman” would be good for the economy...

Your response is exactly what I mean. It is snarky and doesn't look at the whole picture.

Do you really want to have a discussion? If so, let's discuss:

--unemployment has dropped steadily and is now at 3.7%, the lowest since 1969
--African-American unemployment is at an historic all time low
--Hispanic unemployment is at an historic all time low
--GDP growth at 4.7% (when Obama told us that kind of growth was never coming back)
--Deregulation
--renogtiated trade agreements
--oil production and exportation is at a high
--stock market records were broken repeatedly

It may be that we are headed into a recession. Some economists have been warning of one since the last one. Some people argue that Trump benefited from Obama's policies. Others point out that the economy was declining during the last year or so of Obama's presidency, and Trump's reversal of Obama's policies kickstarted the boom and delayed a recession.

I don't pretend to know all about this, and unfortunately I do not have a crystal ball. But please don't act like you really want to have an honest discussion because you clearly do not.

[rootbeerspin]

Dec jobs numbers just got out and looking good. Who knows if we are heading for a recession. Even top economist are wrong sometimes.

[yjc281]

Stock prices are mostly related to sentiments which are often influenced by news. (including fake news)
It's dangerous to judge the health of the economy solely based on that.
Also I actually agree that a president can only do so much to influence the overall economy. Although presidents from both parties tend to claim their achievements when the stock price is high and are frequently blamed when the economy is bad or when the stock market tanks.
Personally I felt Dow at 26k was really over-inflated and should cool down a little. Since I mostly invest via 401k the recent drop makes the purchase price more reasonable....

[Cinco Ranch]

I have a condo that I need to sell around October time frame, will this affect my selling

[thompssc]

Originally Posted by calgirlinnc

Your response is exactly what I mean. It is snarky and doesn't look at the whole picture.

Do you really want to have a discussion? If so, let's discuss:

--unemployment has dropped steadily and is now at 3.7%, the lowest since 1969
--African-American unemployment is at an historic all time low
--Hispanic unemployment is at an historic all time low
--GDP growth at 4.7% (when Obama told us that kind of growth was never coming back)
--Deregulation
--renogtiated trade agreements
--oil production and exportation is at a high
--stock market records were broken repeatedly

It may be that we are headed into a recession. Some economists have been warning of one since the last one. Some people argue that Trump benefited from Obama's policies. Others point out that the economy was declining during the last year or so of Obama's presidency, and Trump's reversal of Obama's policies kickstarted the boom and delayed a recession.

I don't pretend to know all about this, and unfortunately I do not have a crystal ball. But please don't act like you really want to have an honest discussion because you clearly do not.

Do you really want to have a discussion? Clearly, the answer is no. You just want to wave your MAGA hat around and play your whataboutism card. If you really wanted to look at the "whole picture", you'd include the affects of a president who started a damaging trade war. You'd include the affects of a president who is utterly unpredictable and who damages our relations with other countries. You can't say you want to look at the whole picture and not stop to examine the affects of his tweeting tantrums, or his gov't shutdown, or his tariff war, or his push for the upper class and business tax cuts. These also impact the economy and what is going on.

[happycrow]

Rakin is right.

This has f-all to do with the Presidency, and much more to do with the end of QE-infinity, and the fact that many young quants on Wall St are only now having to learn to derive value rather than simply dip-buying, and have never had to do so before because the Bernanke/Yellen made that a fool's errand. There will be winners and losers as said bubbles pop, but that's the long and short of it.

[jiping]

312,000 new jobs but unemployment is still up a bit, which means labor force participation rate is finally going up since 2008.
Jobs are becoming more available, wages are rising because of labor supply, and people who were previously not seeking work start looking again.
It seems that we are indeed in a Obama Economic Miracle™, instead of a recession.

[Taynxtlvl]

The economy is poised for a downturn. It can only stay red-hot for so long. What I'm looking at isn't necessary the stock market but global markets in general. Also I read about a year ago that student loan debt and credit card debt had eclipsed the levels prior to the 2008 recession. Any fool could see that the rampant growth of the last 3 to 5 years especially isn't sustainable even in a strong market like Dallas. The runaway house prices, ridiculous rents and hardly any thought of newly built "Regular" houses and "Regular" apartments. All this luxury this and that blah blah blah.

What I will say is the current presidents antics of the last couple weeks certainly are not going to stave off the downturn, to the contrary I believe they have pushed the needle even more toward that point.

All that being said. The banks didn't learn from the last go-around. and cities areas that didn't do well. generally one trick pony type cities/economies. Vegas, Arizona, All of Florida, Heavy banking cities etc. hopefully have diversified since the nation and world pulled out of the last recession during the Obama years after things fell apart during Bush Jr.

Time will tell I guess.

[calgirlinnc]

Originally Posted by thompssc

Do you really want to have a discussion? Clearly, the answer is no. You just want to wave your MAGA hat around and play your whataboutism card. If you really wanted to look at the "whole picture", you'd include the affects of a president who started a damaging trade war. You'd include the affects of a president who is utterly unpredictable and who damages our relations with other countries. You can't say you want to look at the whole picture and not stop to examine the affects of his tweeting tantrums, or his gov't shutdown, or his tariff war, or his push for the upper class and business tax cuts. These also impact the economy and what is going on.

No "whataboutism" card was played at all.

Trump is not being unpredictable. He is doing exactly what he said he was going to do.

[Soonhun]

Has the trade war really been very damaging to the average Texan? I haven't noticed any negative, or positive, impacts on my life since it began.