Will Dallas ever be Texas' 2nd biggest city again? (Houston: transplants, apartment)

[TheOverdog]

It'd be better if you just posted what you are looking at that supports, because the site itself isn't showing Houston to be anymore dense than downtown Dallas, beyond that Houston has a very tiny tract (#2100100 in the Greater 5th Ward - Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site) that touches 22k people per sq mile, which is among the highest in Texas, but is mostly surrounded by suburban density (5k people per sq mile). Dallas on the other hand is more uniform at 13-15k per sq mile in it's downtown core, but doesn't have any that touch 20k per sq mile. 5th Ward is also losing population, not gaining.


Also: zip codes may be used for demographics because they are available and easy, but there are actually just US postal delivery codes, and you can use them to find the actual routes your postman takes. They are not uniformly sized and are regularly subdivided when they get dense enough to require additional postal routes, which makes them not great for comparing historical density. Here's the delivery path for a route in 75219:

https://www.melissa.com/v2/lookups/c...ode/75219/C045

[dch526]

I dont think Zips are the best use to determine the urban cores but based on the limited data, it gives an ok look at it. I took my best crack into it (went ahead and excluded some zips, for both cities, that clip parts of the urban core but almost all is not)

Houston Zips used
77002 (2010 pop: 16793) (2017 pop: 12370)
77010 (2010 pop: 366) (2017 pop: 915)
77004 (2010 pop: 32692) (2017 pop: 37642)
77003 (2010 pop: 10508) (2017 pop: 9646)
77006 (2010 pop: 19664) (2017 pop: 21945)

I went ahead and removed the two zips that lost pop for the calculations. Let me know if you feel some of the other zips should be included here.

Totals (8.16 sq mi) (2010 pop: 54732) (2017 pop: 62519)
Density (2010: 6707/sq mi) (2017: 7662/sq mi)

Dallas Zips used
75201 (2010 pop: 9409) (2017 pop: 15185)
75202 (2010 pop: 1666) (2017 pop: 2029)
75204 (2010 pop: 26279) (2017 pop: 30370)
75226 (2010 pop: 3506) (2017 pop: 4790)
75219 (2010 pop: 22124) (2017 pop: 23277)

Totals (8.06 sq mi) (2010 pop: 62984) (2017 pop: 75651)
Density (2010: 7814/sq mi) (2017: 9386/sq mi)

[Ivory Lee Spurlock]

Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj

You know, like by all accounts it should be?

I doubt Dallas will ever be the 2nd largest city in Texas. If it does happen, it will be several decades from now. In the meantine, by the year 2030, or at some point during the 2030's decade, Dallas will slip to 5th place as Ft. Worth and Austin will overtake "Big D" in population. That's what happens when a city allows itself to become surrounded by suburbs and no where to grow except "up", as in high rise condos and apartments.

[DabOnEm]

Originally Posted by TheOverdog

It'd be better if you just posted what you are looking at that supports, because the site itself isn't showing Houston to be anymore dense than downtown Dallas, beyond that Houston has a very tiny tract (#2100100 in the Greater 5th Ward - Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site) that touches 22k people per sq mile, which is among the highest in Texas, but is mostly surrounded by suburban density (5k people per sq mile). Dallas on the other hand is more uniform at 13-15k per sq mile in it's downtown core, but doesn't have any that touch 20k per sq mile. 5th Ward is also losing population, not gaining.

Also: zip codes may be used for demographics because they are available and easy, but there are actually just US postal delivery codes, and you can use them to find the actual routes your postman takes. They are not uniformly sized and are regularly subdivided when they get dense enough to require additional postal routes, which makes them not great for comparing historical density. Here's the delivery path for a route in 75219:

https://www.melissa.com/v2/lookups/c...ode/75219/C045

You need to add up the zip codes with 610 (Houston) and Loop 12 (Dallas) and you'll see that Houston has a denser urban core to get a general number. Of course we know there is a larger urban core within 610 than Loop 12 as Houston is simply the larger city. Either city's downtown is only one neighborhood in their overall core, so comparing just that is not going to get you their urban core at all.

Also, you can view the urban area numbers where Houston's central urban area is densifying faster than Dallas (from this thread). Change between 2010-2017 (each metro has multiple urban areas but these are their main ones):

Houston had an increase of 1,166,552 people (in 1,660 square miles) for a total of 6,315,000 residents.
Dallas had an increase of 1,133,647 people (in 1,779.1 square miles) for a total of 6,550,000 residents.

Again, you can get these from the American Fact Finder website I linked earlier: https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/...es/index.xhtml

[Ivory Lee Spurlock]

Originally Posted by El Chingaso

What in the blind green melon does it matter?

You must live in Dallas or one of its suburbs. It's usually the people who live in a city that is lagging are the ones who don't care too much for these types of competitions.

You're right, though, it really doesn't matter, but some people enjoy some friendly competition.

I bet if Dallas ever was to pass Houston in population, there would be alot of high-fiving, chest-bumping and celebrating going on in Dallas.

[DabOnEm]

Originally Posted by dch526

I dont think Zips are the best use to determine the urban cores but based on the limited data, it gives an ok look at it. I took my best crack into it (went ahead and excluded some zips, for both cities, that clip parts of the urban core but almost all is not)

Houston Zips used
77002 (2010 pop: 16793) (2017 pop: 12370)
77010 (2010 pop: 366) (2017 pop: 915)
77004 (2010 pop: 32692) (2017 pop: 37642)
77003 (2010 pop: 10508) (2017 pop: 9646)
77006 (2010 pop: 19664) (2017 pop: 21945)

I went ahead and removed the two zips that lost pop for the calculations. Let me know if you feel some of the other zips should be included here.

Totals (8.16 sq mi) (2010 pop: 54732) (2017 pop: 62519)
Density (2010: 6707/sq mi) (2017: 7662/sq mi)

Dallas Zips used
75201 (2010 pop: 9409) (2017 pop: 15185)
75202 (2010 pop: 1666) (2017 pop: 2029)
75204 (2010 pop: 26279) (2017 pop: 30370)
75226 (2010 pop: 3506) (2017 pop: 4790)
75219 (2010 pop: 22124) (2017 pop: 23277)

Totals (8.06 sq mi) (2010 pop: 62984) (2017 pop: 75651)
Density (2010: 7814/sq mi) (2017: 9386/sq mi)

You missed several zip codes from Houston, including all of the ones on the western half of the inner loop including neighborhoods such as Greenway Plaza, Washington Avenue, Upper Kirby, Rice Military, partially got Montrose, etc.

I did this map not too long ago and think this represents a more accurate area for each city. Tried my best to not include SFH neighborhoods (which is why Third Ward for Houston and Lakewood for Dallas aren't included). I missed a few blocks in each city here and there, but I think this is pretty accurate:

Houston





Dallas

[dch526]

Originally Posted by DabOnEm

You need to add up the zip codes with 610 (Houston) and Loop 12 (Dallas) and you'll see that Houston has a denser urban core to get a general number. Of course we know there is a larger urban core within 610 than Loop 12 as Houston is simply the larger city. Either city's downtown is only one neighborhood in their overall core, so comparing just that is not going to get you their urban core at all.

Also, you can view the urban area numbers where Houston's central urban area is densifying faster than Dallas (from this thread). Change between 2010-2017 (each metro has multiple urban areas but these are their main ones):

Houston had an increase of 1,166,552 people (in 1,660 square miles) for a total of 6,315,000 residents.
Dallas had an increase of 1,133,647 people (in 1,779.1 square miles) for a total of 6,550,000 residents.

Again, you can get these from the American Fact Finder website I linked earlier: https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/...es/index.xhtml

Wait a second, you consider everything within Loop 12 and within Loop 610 as an Urban Core?

When calculating, do you remove the following Areas to better define density?
Houston:
- Memorial Park
- Buffalo Bayou floodplain

Dallas:
- White Rock Lake
- Trinity River Floodplain
- Love Field
- The Great Trinity Forest

[dch526]

Originally Posted by DabOnEm

You missed several zip codes from Houston, including all of the ones on the western half of the inner loop including neighborhoods such as Greenway Plaza, Washington Avenue, Upper Kirby, Rice Military, partially got Montrose, etc.

I did this map not too long ago and think this represents a more accurate area for each city. Tried my best to not include SFH neighborhoods (which is why Third Ward for Houston and Lakewood for Dallas aren't included). I missed a few blocks in each city here and there, but I think this is pretty accurate:

Houston





Dallas

Nice breakdown, I wouldn't consider everything you have shown as fully interconnected(but that's however you want to define urban core). Honestly, Dallas should really stop at SMU. Those areas up there are dense with apartment but I wouldnt consider them part of the Urban Core.

Do you have a breakdown similar to what I did that shows how each has grown over the past 7 years?

[DabOnEm]

Originally Posted by dch526

Wait a second, you consider everything within Loop 12 and within Loop 610 as an Urban Core?

When calculating, do you remove the following Areas to better define density?
Houston:
- Memorial Park
- Buffalo Bayou floodplain

Dallas:
- White Rock Lake
- Trinity River Floodplain
- Love Field
- The Great Trinity Forest

Not everything within those loops is the urban core for each city, and there are parts outside of the loops that are in the urban core (GOOF and Uptown areas for Houston; Northpark area in Dallas). Not really sure why you're listing the floodplains. I'm strictly talking about the zip codes and the neighborhoods within them. There is always a chance that a park or water may be included in the square mileage.

Originally Posted by dch526

Nice breakdown, I wouldn't consider everything you have shown as fully interconnected(but that's however you want to define urban core). Honestly, Dallas should really stop at SMU. Those areas up there are dense with apartment but I wouldnt consider them part of the Urban Core.

Do you have a breakdown similar to what I did that shows how each has grown over the past 7 years?

Dallas' core is more connected than Houston's now simply because it takes up a smaller area. Houston's core is larger due to being a bigger city, so it's taken time for it to come together. Now in 2019, it's safe to say Houston's core is having it's "coming out party" because the new developments are starting to all tie together. Houston has one of the hottest highrise residential markets in the country right now, and smaller mixed-use developments have been filling the gaps between them. Neighborhoods not filled with mixed-use are getting rows of townhomes now. It's been incredible to see the changes with each visit.

[dch526]

Originally Posted by DabOnEm

Dallas' core is more connected than Houston's now simply because it takes up a smaller area. Houston's core is larger due to being a bigger city, so it's taken time for it to come together. Now in 2019, it's safe to say Houston's core is having it's "coming out party" because the new developments are starting to all tie together. Houston has one of the hottest highrise residential markets in the country right now, and smaller mixed-use developments have been filling the gaps between them. Neighborhoods not filled with mixed-use are getting rows of townhomes now. It's been incredible to see the changes with each visit.

Without a doubt, both cities have made amazing strides to become more urban and really starting to really connect the pockets together. My only argument is the density and growth in each city's urban core is very similar and I honestly don't believe one is outpacing the other by any large margin.

Very curious to see what comes out of the 2020 Census and we can dig deeper into the individual blocks/tracts to really fine tune the urban areas and compare to 2010. Everyone loves to focus on Austin but I think everyone is going to be very surprised by the numbers that come out of Dallas/Houston.