D/FW area to attract 2 million 2020-2030? (Houston, Dallas: apartment, credit)

[the_potion_darling]

I have to laugh at the comments about DFW being over valued. Housing is but one factor, and when someone takes into account the total cost of living, wages, and no income tax, Dallas still remains a steal compared to other cities, especially out west.

[biafra4life]

Originally Posted by Treasurevalley92

I think in the Next Decade we will see less growth than the 2010s. Under 1 million.

Somehow, I doubt it. I see the metroplex gaining way over a million, probably closer to two million.
Obviously the Dallas forum tends to focus on Dallas and Collin County. Dallas County is probably close to buildout and Collin isnt big enough to absorb 2 million people. But people are forgetting about Tarrant County, Rockwall County and Denton County. I can tell you that cities such as Rowlett, Fate, Royse City, Wylie, Lavon and Forney have only just begun their own booms. They tend to be overshadowed by the popular names like Frisco and McKinney, but they are going to be transformed in a decade.

Same deal with Tarrant County. Cities like Keller, the Alliance area and Far North Fort Worth come to mind. The fact is that most of the Metroplex is growing rapidly, not just Collin County.

The next point is that people are still going to come here. My brother lives in Santa Monica. He makes low six figures, married with no kids, but owning a home without a soul crushing commute (as in less than 2 hours) is pretty much a non starter. His wife has already ruled out the possibility of living in California long term, as she comes down to Texas to visit and sees me and my other brother living in homes that would cost millions over there. Plus she is from Missouri and is also used to owning a home. And they know a LOT of people there who share the same quiet desperation. They see that it's possible to have something of a middle class life in Texas and are either actively looking to move or at least thinking about it.

My brother said that a common recruiting tactic used by corporate recruiters in California is to send a picture of a home with a picket fence around it. That should speak volumes about how bad it is out there.

California boosters bring up crap like "oh we have the beach"...well my brother works 70 hours a week, his wife works and is in school as well...they've been to the beach maybe 5 times in a year. Kinda hard to enjoy the beach when you are trying to pay the rent. So point being, expect a LOT more of the California transplants. They are coming.

I've wondered about just how large (and expensive) the metroplex could eventually become...worst case scenario is LA/NY...but no one mentions Chicago? The Chicagoland area is the 3rd largest metro in the country, much bigger than the metroplex, but as far as I know, no one thinks the cost of living in that area is LA/NY bad. Maybe that will be our final endgame? Perhaps someone with experience of living in Chicago can chime in with the good and bad of that situation.

[Rakin]

Originally Posted by Treasurevalley92

I think in the Next Decade we will see less growth than the 2010s. Under 1 million.

I was born in Ft Worth years ago. I recall when DFW Airport was built way out in the middle of nowhere. At the time DFW Airport was built (Mid 70's) the Metroplex probably had about 1.5 million people.

Since 1980 we have easily average 150,000 to 200,000 or more people a year moving into DFW.

To the best of my recollection we had about 2.5 Million people in 1980. 4 to 4.5 Million in 1990. About 6 million in 2000. and at least 7 to 7.5 million in 2010.

Not sure what the next 2020 Census will show but we should be around 8.5 to 9 million today. Personally I don't see that pattern changing since it's been that way for 50+ years and the Texas economy is even stronger today than ever.

Sidenote: There was actually a Contest of Names IIRC and the term MetroPlex was adopted in the 1970s by the cities to describe the DFW area and it's 26 plus cities.

A good resource I've always used for North Texas:

https://www.nctcog.org/

The North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) is a voluntary association of, by and for local governments, established to assist in regional planning. NCTCOG's purpose is to strengthen both the individual and collective power of local governments and to help them recognize regional opportunities, eliminate unnecessary duplication, and make joint decisions.

Now in its 52nd year, NCTCOG's programs and departments encompass transportation planning, environment and development, aging and disability resources, emergency preparedness, demographic research, regional training, criminal justice, 911 emergency numbers, a regional police academy, and more. Use the links on this page to learn about the programs and initiatives active throughout the 16-county region.

[Rakin]

Originally Posted by biafra4life

I've wondered about just how large (and expensive) the metroplex could eventually become...worst case scenario is LA/NY...but no one mentions Chicago? The Chicagoland area is the 3rd largest metro in the country, much bigger than the metroplex, but as far as I know, no one thinks the cost of living in that area is LA/NY bad. Maybe that will be our final endgame? Perhaps someone with experience of living in Chicago can chime in with the good and bad of that situation.

There was a study probably 10 years ago that we would hit the Los Angeles 12 million population in the 2030's.
Even the growth we had from 2000-2010 supported that data.

Lot of Texans did not like to hear that news.

[Johnhw2]

Home prices without a discussion if property tax and insurance costs misses the mark. Home prices in Texas and DFW are effectively higher than the price alone because taxes on homes are higher than most states/ cities.

Dallas is not inexpensive but is a safe convenient easy place to live. But do not ignore costs of ownership that differ materially from the norm.

This issue will not change the growth in DFW. Jobs are king. We like jobs while metros ahead us do not. Chicago and eventually look out we are coming for you in due time

[Bolanders]

Originally Posted by Johnhw2

Home prices without a discussion if property tax and insurance costs misses the mark. Home prices in Texas and DFW are effectively higher than the price alone because taxes on homes are higher than most states/ cities.

When you say this that is true of all major metro areas compared to other cities like Boise or Montana, or Alabama or Indiana, etc.. If you are saying that taxes are higher than similar cities to DFW in other states - LA, SD, OC, SF, Seattle, Chicago, Houston, MSP, Atlanta, Boston, DC, Miami then that is incorrect except for Atlanta and a wash with Houston. The cities I listed are the job areas and are most similar to DFW. All of these places will have higher housing costs higher tax amounts and similar insurance costs than DFW except Atlanta and Houston if you look into like type suburbs, exurbs, etc with like type homes (Square feet, amenities, etc)

Personally I like to break it down in $ costs. It costs about $3500/month (give or take) in overall living costs to live in a nice area of DFW. 5 -10 years ago it was about $2500/month

[Soonhun]

Originally Posted by the_potion_darling

I have to laugh at the comments about DFW being over valued. Housing is but one factor, and when someone takes into account the total cost of living, wages, and no income tax, Dallas still remains a steal compared to other cities, especially out west.

A lot of people will argue that, even adjusting for wages, DFW should be notably cheaper than the big coastal cities because Dallas/DFW isn't a "real city" and/or offers less. I completely disagree with that, just wanted to point out what people like Julio July think when they call DFW one of the most overvalued metros.

[Zenstyle]

It behooves Dallas/Ft. Worth city planners to increase/improve mass transit. You can't pave your way out of congestion.

[Sunbather]

Originally Posted by Johnhw2

Home prices without a discussion if property tax and insurance costs misses the mark. Home prices in Texas and DFW are effectively higher than the price alone because taxes on homes are higher than most states/ cities.

An important point, but at the same time, my savings in state income tax alone here in TX are more than 2x the property tax on my house here.

[Treasurevalley92]

Originally Posted by biafra4life

Somehow, I doubt it. I see the metroplex gaining way over a million, probably closer to two million.
Obviously the Dallas forum tends to focus on Dallas and Collin County. Dallas County is probably close to buildout and Collin isnt big enough to absorb 2 million people. But people are forgetting about Tarrant County, Rockwall County and Denton County. I can tell you that cities such as Rowlett, Fate, Royse City, Wylie, Lavon and Forney have only just begun their own booms. They tend to be overshadowed by the popular names like Frisco and McKinney, but they are going to be transformed in a decade.

Same deal with Tarrant County. Cities like Keller, the Alliance area and Far North Fort Worth come to mind. The fact is that most of the Metroplex is growing rapidly, not just Collin County.

The next point is that people are still going to come here. My brother lives in Santa Monica. He makes low six figures, married with no kids, but owning a home without a soul crushing commute (as in less than 2 hours) is pretty much a non starter. His wife has already ruled out the possibility of living in California long term, as she comes down to Texas to visit and sees me and my other brother living in homes that would cost millions over there. Plus she is from Missouri and is also used to owning a home. And they know a LOT of people there who share the same quiet desperation. They see that it's possible to have something of a middle class life in Texas and are either actively looking to move or at least thinking about it.

My brother said that a common recruiting tactic used by corporate recruiters in California is to send a picture of a home with a picket fence around it. That should speak volumes about how bad it is out there.

California boosters bring up crap like "oh we have the beach"...well my brother works 70 hours a week, his wife works and is in school as well...they've been to the beach maybe 5 times in a year. Kinda hard to enjoy the beach when you are trying to pay the rent. So point being, expect a LOT more of the California transplants. They are coming.

I've wondered about just how large (and expensive) the metroplex could eventually become...worst case scenario is LA/NY...but no one mentions Chicago? The Chicagoland area is the 3rd largest metro in the country, much bigger than the metroplex, but as far as I know, no one thinks the cost of living in that area is LA/NY bad. Maybe that will be our final endgame? Perhaps someone with experience of living in Chicago can chime in with the good and bad of that situation.

I mean it is possible, but I don't think so. Californians are moving to lots of states besides Texas....The mountain west is full of Ex-Californians. My point is, we aren't the only ones competing for Californians, most non-northeastern states are cheaper than California.

I think we will continue to grow, but DFW isn't the great deal it used to be. It is still a good deal, but it is no longer undervalued.

As for Chicago? I have a couple buddies who moved from Dallas to there. They tell me Dallas is still cheaper, but not by as much as you would think. Chicago and Philly are most likely the best deals for a city for young people in terms of good jobs and enough walkable areas that it isn't a "Luxury" only a few people can afford.

I mean not everyone values that, but most young people would rather have the option to walk or ride the train vs being forced to drive everywhere. Actually, Chicago is prob the best mix of a city that is easy to get around with or without a car and it is pretty plausible for a couple to own one for trips out of town or weekend runs to Costco.

Anyway Chicago is a weird city, but if Dallas becomes as or more expensive than Chicago I can see it having a rebound and getting some Dallas transplants.