Corona Virus--- How scared are you (Dallas, Italy: colleges, law, estimates)

[Sunbather]

Originally Posted by cityfolk89

That is wrong.

A certain decent % (healthy or not) end up needing partial ICU or full ICU care for supplemental oxygen to recover. The number is 15% but I think it's probably a bit lower, even at 5% that is far more intense than the flu.

There are many ~30 year olds now that have needed partial ICU or full ICU care. Sure, you recover with care... but what happens if all the hospital beds are full? Dramatic increase in mortality.

It just so happens that the US has less beds than Italy, China, Japan, South Korea, etc. The goal should be to slow down infection rates so we care for people as needed.

That bold part 100%.

We don't need to panic. But we all need to not be dismissive, stay informed, and follow the recommendations by the health experts. Do not just think of yourselves, but anyone else you could possibly infect once you eventually come into contact with the virus.

[TurtleCreek80]

Originally Posted by Capitalprophets

True, biggest problem with corona is fear of the unknown. The virus itself is affecting only 3% of the population that are immunocompromised.

By affecting do you mean they’re dead?

Because I presume the other 15% who were in serious condition involving hospitalization and even on a ventilator were also “affected” by coronavirus. Not to mention the ones at home in “stable” condition who had pneumonia-like cases and took a few weeks to get over it.


The biggest problem with coronavirus is that it’s highly contagious. They tracked a transmission in China where one case had stood in line for 15 SECONDS next to someone who caught it from them. So while it isn’t a big deal for 70-80% of the population who catches it, if 50% of the US contracts it in the next 4-6 months, that’s an extra 27,000,000 hospitalizations our healthcare system can’t handle.

Not to mention the economic impact.

I’m not worried about myself but I am concerned about all four of my kiddo’s grandparents who are over 65 and all have underlying health conditions. And two of our adult siblings.

I hope it’s not bad locally but no one has a crystal ball right now.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by CDContribuitor

Praying for everybody. I agree that the situation in scary - possible loss of work, especially the hourly paid workers. People who work in service industry - retail, restaurants, airlines have an additional burden of ensuring they do not get infected. I do think that this will get under control, given that most of the countries except Italy, seem to have decreased the rate of infection in the last few days.

The health situation is scary for those who are elderly and have underlying health conditions. The only part of the situation that is scary about the rest of it is economic.

Ive read the WHO's Situation reports and studied the numbers for the last three weeks. The place where the virus is currently thriving above all others is Western Europe and Iran. The US under reported for a while so those numbers are catching up but I dont think its because the spread got worse in the last 5 days. China, Korea, and Japans numbers are way down.

There is a very clear tie between temperature and humidity and spread of the virus based on the countries reporting new cases in the numbers they are. I hate Trump, but he was probably right that things will ease up here in a few weeks. Itll probably end up being cyclical like the flu.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by cityfolk89

That is wrong.

A certain decent % (healthy or not) end up needing partial ICU or full ICU care for supplemental oxygen to recover. The number is 15% but I think it's probably a bit lower, even at 5% that is far more intense than the flu.

There are many ~30 year olds now that have needed partial ICU or full ICU care. Sure, you recover with care... but what happens if all the hospital beds are full? Dramatic increase in mortality.

It just so happens that the US has less beds than Italy, China, Japan, South Korea, etc. The goal should be to slow down infection rates so we care for people as needed.

That's WAY too shrill. Except for the last sentence which is right on.

[Katana49]

mod cut


They need to, they should, but they enjoy being taken to task on every single thing they post apparently.

[zhappybird]

Just read a article on why Italy situation is out of control now. Because they did not take it seriously and think it is just a flu, even now, people still go to streets to protest the city shut down decisions. 2 two weeks ago, They did not wear mask and still go to bars, restaurants and conferences..., how can they win the battle with such contagious virus by doing this? It seems many people in US have similar thoughts as Italian, so that is why I am concerned that US may be the second Italy, I hope not. This is not just a flu, it is much serious.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by zhappybird

Just read a article on why Italy situation is out of control now. Because they did not take it seriously and think it is just a flu, even now, people still go to streets to protest the city shut down decisions. 2 two weeks ago, They did not wear mask and still go to bars, restaurants and conferences..., how can they win the battle with such contagious virus by doing this? It seems many people in US have similar thoughts as Italian, so that is why I am concerned that US may be the second Italy, I hope not. This is not just a flu, it is much serious.

It is more dangerous than the flu but like the flu it will be a cyclical virus. The numbers are revealing it does not spread easily in warm humid climates and thrives in cold dry conditions. So we probably will get a reprieve this summer and it’ll come back in the winter. That should hopefully give science some time to catch up in the northern hemisphere.

As a side note I would invite all of you to visit the “Coronavirus:\” thread in the general US forum. I’m posting statistics on cases by country and other analyses.

[Capitalprophets]

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

By affecting do you mean they’re dead?

Because I presume the other 15% who were in serious condition involving hospitalization and even on a ventilator were also “affected” by coronavirus. Not to mention the ones at home in “stable” condition who had pneumonia-like cases and took a few weeks to get over it.


The biggest problem with coronavirus is that it’s highly contagious. They tracked a transmission in China where one case had stood in line for 15 SECONDS next to someone who caught it from them. So while it isn’t a big deal for 70-80% of the population who catches it, if 50% of the US contracts it in the next 4-6 months, that’s an extra 27,000,000 hospitalizations our healthcare system can’t handle.

Not to mention the economic impact.

I’m not worried about myself but I am concerned about all four of my kiddo’s grandparents who are over 65 and all have underlying health conditions. And two of our adult siblings.

I hope it’s not bad locally but no one has a crystal ball right now.

Right, to date John Hopkins CSSE report shows 118,596 confirmed out of which 4,262 died. Majority of these patients are found to be immunocompromised or have some sort of lung disorder.

The problem is they don't talk about the 64,427 that have recovered that is around 54% recovered. Compare that to the influenza just this season. CDC estimates at least 34 million flu illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths from flu.

Having known all the stuff we do know about influenza we are still at 20k deaths in a season. Whereas only 4,262 for a disease we know nothing about.

However, no way to take this lightly whatsoever. I am really looking forward to see the outcome of INO's human clinical trial next month. Maybe it's possible to uncover a vaccine to fix the spread sooner than later.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by zhappybird

Just read a article on why Italy situation is out of control now. Because they did not take it seriously and think it is just a flu, even now, people still go to streets to protest the city shut down decisions. 2 two weeks ago, They did not wear mask and still go to bars, restaurants and conferences..., how can they win the battle with such contagious virus by doing this? It seems many people in US have similar thoughts as Italian, so that is why I am concerned that US may be the second Italy, I hope not. This is not just a flu, it is much serious.

I just read a bit about Italy.

A few takeaways:
1. Earlier in the winter Northern Italy had an exceptionally severe flu season leading to many cases of pneumonia. The thinking now is that many of these cases were likely in fact undiagnosed COVID - 19.

2. Italy has outsized old and very old populations.

3. 81 is that average age of those who have died.

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by BigDGeek

Correct, but there's at least a semi-effective flu vaccine available.

My instinct is that most year's flu vaccines are almost worthless.