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Yes, as are most actual epidemiologists. I'd prefer to go the route of having 100,000 people die in the first six months of the virus than two million. That means we need to limit human interaction, and when we do have interactions, limit exposure via masks.
You seem to be advocating that we just accept the 1-2 million people who would die if everyone got it. That's extremely premature, and it is in conflict with what nearly every epidemiologists recommends.
And yes, I think case numbers are understated, but I think they're understated by a factor of 5-10x. That means we likely have 5-10 million positives in this country of 300 million. So it's hardly the case that we are anywhere near herd immunity.
Sure, its so contagious that we contain this. I do believe its very contagious but unless we have full on lock down then what we are doing is just slowing it not stopping it. Even so, you would have to to worry about it later on if you open things up even slightly. The fact people can still go to grocery stores and some services are considered to be necessary means this will continue to spread. Have we slowed it, sure. Are we going to stop it, no. So someone who gets this will get it in May instead of April.
Two million in the US or worldwide? Both have been drastically cut back on estimates as the they are finding many have had this, asymptomatic, or the majority will survive this. The current media is the one making people run around scared.
Your contention seems to be that by shutting down the economy, we have saved millions of lives.
My contention is that by shutting down the economy, millions will die anyway, AND millions have lost their freedoms.
This is the source of our disagreement. If it were true that millions of people would die in the US over the next few months due to the shut downs, I'd agree with you regarding your overall premise. But it isn't true. You are just making this number up. The economic shut downs will not kill millions of people in the US this year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by As Above So Below...
There’s two crises at hand: health and economical.
We talk a lot about the health crisis but rarely of the economical one. It’s hard to create a timeline for the health crisis but we must have one for the economical crisis. How long can we afford to live like this? If the economy dies but we save every life, is that really a victory?
Bottom line is that this virus isn’t going away. We’re going to have to learn to live with it. That means exposing ourselves to the risk of getting it. The government has shown itself to be inept at getting resources to those who need them so trusting in them is foolish. We have to find a way to co-exist with this virus.
You can't separate these crises. One is caused by the other. We can't address the health crisis by powering ahead with the economy.
There is a way and a time to open things up. We just had our two worst days yet for new cases yesterday and the day before. How is that the time to open things up?
You can try to create a timeline all you want, but guess what? The virus doesn't care about your timeline. It is a fool's errand to try to say "We are opening things up in a month, virus be d*mned." That is a recipe for an explosion of the virus.
And to answer your question: Yes, it is worth temporarily tanking the economy to save 1-2 million lives in this country.
Last edited by Wittgenstein's Ghost; 04-26-2020 at 01:47 PM..
Sure, its so contagious that we contain this. I do believe its very contagious but unless we have full on lock down then what we are doing is just slowing it not stopping it.
Slowing it is the goal. Slowing it is great. No one claimed we could stop it.
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Originally Posted by LeavingMA
Even so, you would have to to worry about it later on if you open things up even slightly. The fact people can still go to grocery stores and some services are considered to be necessary means this will continue to spread. Have we slowed it, sure. Are we going to stop it, no. So someone who gets this will get it in May instead of April.
The slower the hit, the better our healthcare system can respond.
We can start to open things up at some point, provided people are willing to do things like wear masks. Unfortunately, it seems there are a lot of people like yourself who don't value other humans enough to be inconvenienced by masks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeavingMA
Two million in the US or worldwide? Both have been drastically cut back on estimates as the they are finding many have had this, asymptomatic, or the majority will survive this. The current media is the one making people run around scared.
The two million projection was without shut downs, and it was in the US.
If we open things up without restriction, we are likely looking at that kind of number. We are almost certainly going to be over 100k even with the restrictions.
Your language here is too imprecise. Yes, the "majority" will survive this. No one has ever suggested otherwise. Yes, "many" have had this....but we are still nowhere near herd immunity, and that's unlikely before a vaccine.
The thing that should make people scared is the numbers. Just look at them. Our two worst days yet in terms of new cases were yesterday and the day before. We are seeing 30-40,000 new cases and over 2,000 deaths daily. Covid is very close to becoming the leading killer of all causes in the United States. What about those numbers is reassuring to you?
Yet you don't even care about the next guy enough to wear a mask while grocery shopping....
This is the source of our disagreement. If it were true that millions of people would die in the US over the next few months due to the shut downs, I'd agree with you regarding your overall premise. But it isn't true. You are just making this number up. The economic shut downs will not kill millions of people in the US this year.
Where did I say "in the U.S."
Millions across the world are going to feel the impact of a devastated US economy. Did you even read the comments from the address to the UN that I cited above? This is from the head of the World Food Programme:
"The WFP had already estimated that 135 million people would face crisis levels of hunger or worse in 2020. But with COVID-19, an additional 130 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by the end of the year. "
This is not a "disagreement." I am not wrong. You just refuse to ever see another point of view besides your own. This is just as valid as you claiming millions would die of CV based on modeling.
RECAP - My take from all of this is we can argue all day what's the best route, but it seems none of our options are good options. People will die no matter what, people will lose their jobs no matter what. We'll never truly know what today would look like if we didn't shut everything down long term. We can only make educated guesses. We are essentially living through a science experiment right now. We can only make a hypothesis of the outcome, but we won't know the outcome until this is all truly behind us. In the meantime, I am getting tired of listening to our politicians and the citizens of the U.S. fight and make this is partisan issue when we are at a crucial time in history where compassion and teamwork are essential.
By the way - I think this forum for the most part has been very civil and I appreciate that everyone seems to be educating themselves on the issue at hand no matter their opinion.
Millions across the world are going to feel the impact of a devastated US economy. Did you even read the comments from the address to the UN that I cited above? This is from the head of the World Food Programme:
"The WFP had already estimated that 135 million people would face crisis levels of hunger or worse in 2020. But with COVID-19, an additional 130 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by the end of the year. "
This is not a "disagreement." I am not wrong. You just refuse to ever see another point of view besides your own. This is just as valid as you claiming millions would die of CV based on modeling.
I said 1-2 million would die in the US without shut downs. You responded by saying millions would die with the shut downs. I said that wouldn't happen in the US. You said "When did I say anything about the US?"
Can you see the rub?
It is frustrating to discuss this stuff with you because you often miss very important details. The fact is that most experts have predicted that we would see 1-2 million deaths in the US alone if we didn't do shut downs. Saying that we would have millions of deaths worldwide doesn't make things "even." We would have many millions more deaths worldwide without shut downs.
We will have 100k plus deaths in the US even with historic shut downs. That would have been 1 million plus if we didn't do shut downs. Either you think we will have 1-2 million deaths in the US due to the shut downs and the economic fallout (a number I contest has no backing) or you think the shut downs are saving lives.
And yes, this is a disagreement. Your central premise is that the shut downs will kill just as many people as the virus would have. I disagree, and I think the numbers show your claim to be false. You don't seem to care much for the numbers, though, which is a bit confusing to me considering this is a disagreement about the numbers.
I said 1-2 million would die in the US without shut downs. You responded by saying millions would die with the shut downs. I said that wouldn't happen in the US. You said "When did I say anything about the US?"
Can you see the rub?
It is frustrating to discuss this stuff with you because you often miss very important details. The fact is that most experts have predicted that we would see 1-2 million deaths in the US alone if we didn't do shut downs. Saying that we would have millions of deaths worldwide doesn't make things "even." We would have many millions more deaths worldwide without shut downs.
We will have 100k plus deaths in the US even with historic shut downs. That would have been 1 million plus if we didn't do shut downs. Either you think we will have 1-2 million deaths in the US due to the shut downs and the economic fallout (a number I contest has no backing) or you think the shut downs are saving lives.
And yes, this is a disagreement. Your central premise is that the shut downs will kill just as many people as the virus would have. I disagree, and I think the numbers show your claim to be false. You don't seem to care much for the numbers, though, which is a bit confusing to me considering this is a disagreement about the numbers.
I could say that grass is green and you would poke holes in that and say I was missing details.
If you think my numbers are false, take it up with the World Health Programme. I don't see why your experts get to be correct and my experts are off base.
But that is your SOP.
And since you are so frustrated "discussing things with me", just don't. I hardly think we will miss each other.
I could say that grass is green and you would poke holes in that and say I was missing details.
If you think my numbers are false, take it up with the World Health Programme. I don't see why your experts get to be correct and my experts are off base.
But that is your SOP.
You're still missing the rub here. You are comparing worldwide death projections from the economic fallout to US-only death projections from Covid. I am not saying your numbers are false. I'm saying you're comparing two different things.
This is what I'm talking about when I say you gloss over important details.
You're still missing the rub here. You are comparing worldwide death projections from the economic fallout to US-only death projections from Covid. I am not saying your numbers are false. I'm saying you're comparing two different things.
This is what I'm talking about when I say you gloss over important details.
Did you or did you not say that I "made up" my numbers? So yes you did say my numbers were false...even though they were not "my" numbers at all, and even though I cited the source.
I was discussing the worldwide consequences of the US economy crashing the entire time. It's not "two different things". We are all interrelated. This seems obvious.
We would literally see a million or more deaths from this virus if we returned to normal life right now.
You make statements like this one and then a few weeks later mention that you do not remember having made such a claim or that you are just going by "projections" presented by experts.
The way we are going to go about opening up businesses will be quite different from the way we were conducting our businesses a couple of months ago. People are much more conscious and cautious about the virus. So with the right precautions, i think we will be ok.
I do not under-estimate the virus. However, i think that there has been a panic because of us wrongly focusing on the number of infections (knowing that it is not accurate and it is very much under-diagnosed and under-reported), while we should be actually laser-focused on number of deaths and hospitalizations and capacity of hospitals at state and local level.
Presenting national numbers which includes high proportion of the infected and death numbers within 3 to 5 states, and using those numbers as the benchmark for re-opening of all states and cities across the country is counter-intuitive.
I do agree with Dallas being over-cautious and extending the shelter-at-home until May 15, given its numbers. However, i do not see why Austin cannot re-open majority of its economy on May 1st, with appropriate social distancing and contact tracing measures in place, and having the elderly and vulnerable individuals isolated at their homes. In effect, majority of the country minus the current hot-spots and the projected hot-spots can begin restarting economy on May 1st.
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