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Sad as it is - it may be that your condition precludes you from flying, as it would from scuba diving or spelunking.
I sincerely doubt they would be unable to fly. People with peanut allergies fly... so do people who have conditions that necessitates comfort animals, as do people who are overly large and need 2 seats.
There WILL be some kind of work around, for people with such severe medical conditions.
Anyone whose claustrophobia is that severe needs to be seeking, and pursuing with intent, and following up on, intensive therapy. It can be treated. It's not like being paraplegic.
It is a medical condition... and unfortunately, currently, MOST medical condition treatment other than Coronavirus has been put off.... so perhaps they arent able to get treatment now.
I went for a walk around Uptown today around 4:30PM and I was liking what I was seeing. The majority of the establishments seemed to be closed and the ones that were open weren't all that busy.
Off the top of my head, here are the ones I saw open:
Uptown Pub, Mutts, State & Allen, City Council, Nodding Donkey, Village Burger Bar, Black Friar, Gloria's, Suit Supply, and Taco Diner.
Obviously I didn't cover all of Uptown, so there's likely quite a few that I missed, and maybe a few I got wrong, but it really was pretty dead considering the weather was decent and it was a Friday after work. In fact, I'd actually go so far as to say Uptown was (slightly) less busy today than it has been the past few weeks. I know nothing was open prior to today, but I used to see more people just going on walks through Uptown, and today there seemed to be less of that. Perhaps people being extra cautious and just avoiding the area altogether?
Anyway, this was just my observations on my walk today. It doesn't mean much since I could have just been out a little bit too early to miss the real crowds of people, or perhaps people were hanging out elsewhere, but this is what I saw today.
"Projections indicate that Dallas County, Texas hospitals are unlikely to become overloaded in the next 3 months. If all restrictions were completely lifted today, hospitals would overload on May 15, 2020."
Thanks for the links. This is quite a frightening bit of information. I have to guess that when they so 'no restrictions', that also means no social distancing/masks either, meaning if we just resumed life the way it previously was?
Texas has had 59, 53 and 47 deaths over the last three days. Today, it had nearly 1,500 new positive tests. These are the worst numbers the state has ever had, and most epidemiological models are revising their case and death figures upward in light of the state reopenings.
One of the White House guidelines for reopening (#1, actually) was 14 days of declining case figures. Texas just hit a record today, and it's seeing its highest death figures it has ever seen. I really don't see how the "reopen now" camp is something other than the "the actual data don't matter, we should reopen no matter what the case figures look like" camp.
And the national figures today looked just as bad....36,000 new cases, which is the second-worst day yet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CHRockwell
Nothing like reading someone bash someone else for their arbitrary myopic viewpoint when they have their own arbitrary myopic viewpoint. Every single person has their viewpoint as to when we should re open. It is all arbitrary and myopic, unless you say until it is eradicated form the Earth. The facts are the economic downfall in DFW has become enough for some people and they are willing to take the risk to be able to do whatever they feel they need to do in their life. Every single person on this thread does the same thing every day before this Covid-19. During Flu season you make the cognizant choice to take the chance that you might get the Flu (and could die from it) because it is worth the risk to you. When you leave during rush hour to go home you make the cognizant choice that you have a better chance of getting into an accident than if you waited until 11PM and so on. You basically have arbitrary decision making criteria that you use to decide what you do in your lives. Sorry that everyone's differs but it doesn't make them any less right.
Let's get the sentences correct. Texas did not have its highest number of new cases yesterday (well maybe it did but no one knows). It had its highest number of positive tests from a somewhat random small sample of people. AS the study from EDS post showed this thing is being underreported by up to 75 fold.
1. Who is bashing someone else? I haven't seen that happening in this thread. I certainly hope you weren't referring to me -- I've not bashed anyone.
2. I think you are misusing the term "arbitrary." The various options here and the arguments for them and against them are not arbitrary. They may be up for debate, and the answer may not be clear, but they are not arbitrary.
3. Of course we all take risks. That's never been up for debate. But that's not the salient point when discussing when to open the economy. Covid is now the leading cause of death in the United States. There is no everyday activity that most people do that you can compare to the average risk presented by Covid.
4. Regarding the last paragraph: First, you're using the term "random" incorrectly here. I agree that testing is not sufficient, and we are likely 5-10x understated, but the sample is not random. We are not picking people off the sidewalk and having them take tests. Thus far, positive tests and deaths have been pretty well correlated. In order for the whole "Positive tests aren't meaningful" argument to be sound, we'd need to start seeing fewer deaths while positive tests remains steady or increases. Thus far, we haven't. I do not know why we are likely 5-10x understated (very unlikely to be 75x), but positive tests are thus far a meaningful predictor of coming deaths.
More importantly, the death figures look terrible as well. Texas has been setting records for its death figures, so it's not like there have been high case numbers but normal death figures.
The core of your argument seems to be that widespread disagreement means all opinions are of equal value, but that's not true. Some opinions are better reasoned, better backed by data, etc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CDContribuitor
Agree with this post. My interpretation and presentation of data (according to me, the data is all over the place, inadequate and inaccurate) will always support my view-point - which is economy should be re-opened as soon as possible in a phased manner with proper social distancing measures and contact tracing in place.
The data aren't all over the place, though. Texas had its highest case figure today (almost 1500) and has had 59, 53 and 47 deaths over the last three days. This is, by far, the worst three-day run thus far. You once said that if Texas saw 25 deaths in a day, it would have a real problem. It's hitting double that on a daily basis right now. What about the data is all over the place?
I've asked a few times, and I'm asking earnestly because I'd like to know: What are you seeing in the data that makes you think this is a good time to open?
"Proper social distancing" is the heart of the disagreement here, btw. Saying we should reopen with proper social distancing begs the question. Proper social distancing is always proper. The question is what that looks like. To me, and to many experts, proper social distancing at this point means not going to restaurants, barber shops, tattoo parlors, etc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by As Above So Below...
Its sort of an excuse when people start talking about Texas not having tested enough to know anything. We can clearly infer from the data we have that people in Texas who test are far less likely to have the virus.
I have seen you go after numerous people for their myopic arbitrary opinion because it does not align with your myopic arbitrary opinion like somehow your opinion is more valid which it isn't. it isn't less valid either. Yes they are arbitrary. Unless you aren't ready to do anything until this eradicated or you are against any interpersonal contact of any kind no matter what your views are arbitrary.
Arbitrary means based on a personal whim. So no I'm am not misusing the term unless you have an issue with the actual definition. In that case your issue is with Merriam Webster.
Your arbitrary viewpoint on Covid being the leading cause of death therefore X,Y, and Z is still arbitrary. COVID-19 being the leading cause is not abitrary but based on that you form your viewpoints which is absolutely arbitrary.
BTW I used random because there are hundreds of thousands who have had this, never knew, never got tested, and aren't getting tested. There are people who have it currently and do not know it. Therefore the people are getting treated are those that want to be tested. So while it isn't just random people it is surely not measured with accuracy which is why you see it being underreported from 5x-75x depending on who you want to believe.
I think that you think your viewpoint is "more reasonable" than someone else's shows some serious bias. Using incomplete data and that it means you are using more reason than someone else is pretty funny to read.
Furthermore if your myopic view is that economic catastrophe is far down on your list where it could be at the top of someone else's myopic viewpoint somehow makes your view more valid that is just patently false.
The facts are your criteria for opening is simply your viewpoint. Your view is 100% valid. If someone else decides they don't want to deal with the economic ramifications and they want everything open their view is 100% valid also. Your view isn't any better. Sorry but it isn't. In other words someone saying keep everything closed until this is eradicated from Earth is equally valid to someone saying open everything tomorrow.
Last edited by CHRockwell; 05-01-2020 at 07:24 PM..
As per Texas gov health site, the death numbers for the last 3 days are:
4/28 - 42
4/29 - 34
4/30 - 50
5/1 - I will wait until noon tomorrow and not in a hurry to report it. You seem to be trusting worldometers numbers more than texas gov site.
With regards to Texas reaching 25 deaths per day, i had said "I do not think it will reach 25 deaths per day". I stand corrected and I accept.
What I am seeing data-wise to advocate re-opening? Hospitalizations and death numbers. You have to accept that the numbers were not as bad as was projected. The reason for the shutdown was to flatten the curve enough so as not to overwhelm the hospitals. Shutdown was never intended to ensure that most of the cases will be cured. Hospitalizations never reached peak except maybe in NYC for a day or two. NY gov was asking for 40000 ventilators and ended up using way below 5000. The Javid center was not used at 50% even at peak NYC cases. Having said that, we are at a point where we know enough about the virus, people are much more cautious and the deaths seem to be happening in clusters in hot-spots. Texas numbers will not overwhelm the hospitals. Besides state govt has already said that they would be looking at hospitalizations closely and will take actions like targeted shutdowns if and when required.
Openings will happen gradually and geogrpahically, some states and regions will open faster than the others. This is the only way forward to ensure economic survival and recovery.
Texas has had 59, 53 and 47 deaths over the last three days. Today, it had nearly 1,500 new positive tests. These are the worst numbers the state has ever had, and most epidemiological models are revising their case and death figures upward in light of the state reopenings.
One of the White House guidelines for reopening (#1, actually) was 14 days of declining case figures. Texas just hit a record today, and it's seeing its highest death figures it has ever seen. I really don't see how the "reopen now" camp is something other than the "the actual data don't matter, we should reopen no matter what the case figures look like" camp.
And the national figures today looked just as bad....36,000 new cases, which is the second-worst day yet.
1. Who is bashing someone else? I haven't seen that happening in this thread. I certainly hope you weren't referring to me -- I've not bashed anyone.
2. I think you are misusing the term "arbitrary." The various options here and the arguments for them and against them are not arbitrary. They may be up for debate, and the answer may not be clear, but they are not arbitrary.
3. Of course we all take risks. That's never been up for debate. But that's not the salient point when discussing when to open the economy. Covid is now the leading cause of death in the United States. There is no everyday activity that most people do that you can compare to the average risk presented by Covid.
4. Regarding the last paragraph: First, you're using the term "random" incorrectly here. I agree that testing is not sufficient, and we are likely 5-10x understated, but the sample is not random. We are not picking people off the sidewalk and having them take tests. Thus far, positive tests and deaths have been pretty well correlated. In order for the whole "Positive tests aren't meaningful" argument to be sound, we'd need to start seeing fewer deaths while positive tests remains steady or increases. Thus far, we haven't. I do not know why we are likely 5-10x understated (very unlikely to be 75x), but positive tests are thus far a meaningful predictor of coming deaths.
More importantly, the death figures look terrible as well. Texas has been setting records for its death figures, so it's not like there have been high case numbers but normal death figures.
The core of your argument seems to be that widespread disagreement means all opinions are of equal value, but that's not true. Some opinions are better reasoned, better backed by data, etc.
The data aren't all over the place, though. Texas had its highest case figure today (almost 1500) and has had 59, 53 and 47 deaths over the last three days. This is, by far, the worst three-day run thus far. You once said that if Texas saw 25 deaths in a day, it would have a real problem. It's hitting double that on a daily basis right now. What about the data is all over the place?
I've asked a few times, and I'm asking earnestly because I'd like to know: What are you seeing in the data that makes you think this is a good time to open?
"Proper social distancing" is the heart of the disagreement here, btw. Saying we should reopen with proper social distancing begs the question. Proper social distancing is always proper. The question is what that looks like. To me, and to many experts, proper social distancing at this point means not going to restaurants, barber shops, tattoo parlors, etc.
What is it an excuse for?
Last edited by CDContribuitor; 05-01-2020 at 08:58 PM..
"Projections indicate that Dallas County, Texas hospitals are unlikely to become overloaded in the next 3 months. If all restrictions were completely lifted today, hospitals would overload on May 15, 2020."
Thanks for the links. This is quite a frightening bit of information. I have to guess that when they so 'no restrictions', that also means no social distancing/masks either, meaning if we just resumed life the way it previously was?
“Limited Action,” “Restrictions Lifted,” or “No Action” all refer to if no interventions are
put in place (or if those interventions are fully lifted), and the disease is able to spread at
its natural rate (R0 = ~3.7).
admittedly the modelers states one of the know limatations..
"This is a discrete, rather than a stochastic, analysis. That means that rather than using
probability ranges, this model assumes constant rates for infection, contagiousness, etc.
Among other things, discrete models may somewhat over-estimate the total percentage
of the population who contracts the disease."
Another interesting article, this WRT how restaurant occupancy load calculated...
"1 occupant for each 200 sf of kitchen, 15 sf of seating space, 5 sf of standing space, 100 sf of business areas or 300 sf storage areas. You add all the occupants together, including fractions and get to a total load."
interested in how they'll adjust layouts and seating logistics. maybe too early to tell, but are occupancy signs being updated??
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