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I hear you. Hang in there. I personally am optimistic that we have already seen the worst of this virus and heading towards a recovery. It is painful for many of us, but we will come out of this stronger.
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Originally Posted by calgirlinnc
I fully understand about flattening the curve and not overwhelming basic services, let alone hospitals, in order to avoid a social collapse.
What I object to are three things, primarily:
--the panic and fear and even hysteria along the lines of "I cannot leave my house or my children will die and we have to stay in quarantine for years." Odds are if you have ever put your child in a car, there is a greater risk to your child. Be cautious, sure, be reasonable, but don't live in unnecessary fear.
--that some people refuse to acknowledge that the "cure" to this is for **some people** every bit as dire and tragic and life threatening as the disease itself. I am tired of the comments saying "all you have to do is stay home and relax; how hard is that?" For **some people** that is extremely challenging.
--the politics of it but per forum rules will not detail further.
You are right of course that we don't know much about the disease, but thousands upon thousands die every year from diseases and we don't shut the world down.
It's horrible that so many have died, it's horrible that millions have lost their livelihoods, it's horrible that we live with so much uncertainty now...ALL of it is bad.
The first Dallas Cowboys home game will be in September 2020. I expect the NFL regular season to be played as currently scheduled. Pre-season might still be questionable.
While I expect all the NFL games to be played, in-person attendance might not be what would be expected normally. People are still going to be reticent about crowded events. Sporting events will be the among the last of the crowded events to return. People will be dining in restaurants and going to bars before they attend sporting events. Those are more essential activities.
I do not expect the NBA or NHL seasons to resume in June once shelter in place is lifted, so no more Mavericks or Stars until the start of the next normal season, which is around October 1. It would be far too difficult logistics to make that work, especially with the AAC being booked for various concerts in the summer months. As a separate note, I think concerts are just as low of a priority as sports. I expected attendance for the regularly scheduled 2020-21 season to be materially impacted for both sports.
I don't know if the Rangers can even play an abbreviated season from roughly July 1-September 30. Even if they do, few are excited to go to the games in person.
Also, what are his public health or medical credentials? If I was still working as an academic librarian I wouldn't consider him an authoritative source on vaccines.
I fully understand about flattening the curve and not overwhelming basic services, let alone hospitals, in order to avoid a social collapse.
What I object to are three things, primarily:
--the panic and fear and even hysteria along the lines of "I cannot leave my house or my children will die and we have to stay in quarantine for years." Odds are if you have ever put your child in a car, there is a greater risk to your child. Be cautious, sure, be reasonable, but don't live in unnecessary fear.
--that some people refuse to acknowledge that the "cure" to this is for **some people** every bit as dire and tragic and life threatening as the disease itself. I am tired of the comments saying "all you have to do is stay home and relax; how hard is that?" For **some people** that is extremely challenging.
--the politics of it but per forum rules will not detail further.
You are right of course that we don't know much about the disease, but thousands upon thousands die every year from diseases and we don't shut the world down.
It's horrible that so many have died, it's horrible that millions have lost their livelihoods, it's horrible that we live with so much uncertainty now...ALL of it is bad.
The only fear being spread is by those that take one month of restricted movement and turn it into “ they’ll confine us for years and take all our liberties and livelihood!”
Why would they do that? Who would that benefit? Who is “they” by the way? The several thousand individuals that make up scientists, government and medical workers and elected officials? They have families too. Those rules restrain them too. A down economy affects them too.
That is an overly hysterical, political reaction to a scientific, medical, economic, societal problem. Nobody has been confined for years because of this anywhere.
As for Bill Gates, his personal stance on a topic does not discredit his expertise on that topic. A great many intelligent people have contradictory views on personal vs professional/ scientific arguments. That alone doesn’t invalidate their view.
This situation requires a level-headed approach. This isn’t a science vs economy problem. One will affect the other and in either solution many lives will be lost. Lives that may be strangers you have never met in New York or members of your family.
Nobody wants to be at home “forever”. But one month so far isn’t forever. Neither is a couple of months if adds years to lives that otherwise wouldn’t have been lost and would have been productive or otherwise consuming. People haven’t stopped dying from cancer and car accidents and murders and the flu and many other causes of death that still exist. The huge numbers of deaths due to Coronavirus are in addition to those.
Nothing brings an economy to grinding halt faster than than mass death. Normalcy is simply not possible right this minute. But it is possible. Patience is a virtue. This too shall pass.
That is an overly hysterical, political reaction to a scientific, medical, economic, societal problem.
Also you:
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Originally Posted by BLDSoon
Next week? Let me know how you guys fair at doing both before reaching the peak infection rate.
As I have no interest in being a Darwinian guinea pig for gov Abbot; my household will continue to work and school from home and avoid going out except when absolutely necessary ( i.e Doctor's appointments, occasional grocery, fresh air).
Texas businesses can wait on my dollars well into May and possibly through to June and that's if I ever feel comfortable in a crowd again before a vaccine is available. No one business' existence is more important than life at this point. If I don't get our children to adulthood; it had better be for a reason better than "the economy".
The first Dallas Cowboys home game will be in September 2020. I expect the NFL regular season to be played as currently scheduled. Pre-season might still be questionable.
While I expect all the NFL games to be played, in-person attendance might not be what would be expected normally. People are still going to be reticent about crowded events. Sporting events will be the among the last of the crowded events to return. People will be dining in restaurants and going to bars before they attend sporting events. Those are more essential activities.
I do not expect the NBA or NHL seasons to resume in June once shelter in place is lifted, so no more Mavericks or Stars until the start of the next normal season, which is around October 1. It would be far too difficult logistics to make that work, especially with the AAC being booked for various concerts in the summer months. As a separate note, I think concerts are just as low of a priority as sports. I expected attendance for the regularly scheduled 2020-21 season to be materially impacted for both sports.
I don't know if the Rangers can even play an abbreviated season from roughly July 1-September 30. Even if they do, few are excited to go to the games in person.
I really wonder about this. I have read predictions that college football and high school football will be cancelled. Isn't the NFL declining in popularity somewhat? I think the uproar over the NFL season being cancelled would be far less than over college football being cancelled. I'm not sure my marriage will survive if CFB is cancelled.
Last edited by calgirlinnc; 04-12-2020 at 12:33 PM..
I really wonder about this. I have read predictions that college football and high school football will be cancelled. Isn't the NFL declining in popularity somewhat? I think the uproar over the NFL season being cancelled would be far less than over college football being cancelled. I'm not sure my marriage will survive if CFB is cancelled.
In 2014, Mark Cuban made a stir when he asserted that the NFL would decline over the next 10 years. He made a sound argument. The biggest cause of why the NFL will eventually decline is the head injuries issue. If fewer children participate in the sport due to head injuries, they will eventually not be interested in the sport as adults.
The NFL had some seasons recently where TV ratings declined.
A season of no NFL due to Coronavirus would hasten the NFL's decline, but it would decline with or without the virus.
Locally, the Cowboys have been a mostly mediocre franchise since winning Super Bowl XXX 24 years ago.
It is difficult to determine whether there would be more uproar over a cancellation of an NFL season or a cancellation of a college football season.
As for marriages surviving, family law attorneys are reporting receiving more initial inquiries for business and new divorce filings are up as a result of Coronavirus.
The last thing I want to see happen is another spike in infections. If there's another spike in infections, the private sector will get irrational again. The stock market will go down and employers will stop any new spending initiatives and continue with layoffs. It's better to have a longer shelter in place and a re-opening that enables business to operate with confidence instead of irrationally. When there's uncertainty, businesses freeze up.
I'd rather wait until June 1 than May 1 to re-open.
As for marriages surviving, family law attorneys are reporting receiving more initial inquiries for business and new divorce filings are up as a result of Coronavirus.
That's really sad actually. (I was only joking regarding my marriage though).
There was a half funny/ half sad tweet that tagged HGTV, something to the effect that when this is all over, the open concept floor plan will be out of vogue. Everyone will want rooms that can be closed off.
This is for the US, not for Texas. I'd be surprised if Texas has had its biggest death day. Our biggest daily new case days are all within the last week.
And let's be clear here. You didn't predict 25 deaths per day. You said you didn't think we'd hit 25 deaths per day. There's a big difference between those two.
And I'm not arguing about 23 vs 27 deaths per day. I think you're still missing my point. Bing is a day late. My point is not that we had 27 rather than 23 deaths. It's that 23 was from the day prior and 27 was from today (meaning a few days ago)....Bing just reports late.
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Originally Posted by CDContribuitor
This is your post on 4/3 and this was just a week ago. (you have been over-estimating throughout this discussion at least to a magnitude of x2 to x3):
"It is an illusion that we have an economy vs. virus choice. The virus is going to be so bad during the next month or two that no one will be willing to go on with business as usual -- and that is with the numbers we will have with the shutdowns. If we lifted these shutdowns, the numbers would explode. No one is going to be willing to go about their normal lives when we are adding 100,000 cases per day and are seeing 4,000 deaths daily. And yes, those are the numbers we are talking about in 3-4 weeks' time, even with the shut downs."
So, while you are debating with me whether daily Texas death rate was 23 or 27, I would suggest you review all your posts on this thread and other threads till date and accept that you were over-estimating.
So I was listening to the experts who predicted 100-250k deaths, and I believed them? Sure, I'll accept that.
I think you are taking things a bit personally.
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Originally Posted by CDContribuitor
In one of your posts you had estimated that US will reach 45 million infections, if we do not do social distancing. How can you arrive at that number? There is no model in this world for this novel virus that can estimate.such numbers, unless you know about this virus more than the scientific experts.
Fauci has said he foresees Americans being made to carry "papers" on their heath status to allow free movement. His agenda scares me more than the virus.
"Agenda" is so misused. I certainly hope our top infectious disease doc has an agenda. If not, what's the purpose of that role existing?
If you are implying that Fauci has a goal of turning us into Nazi Germany, I think you should lay off the Alex Jones.
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Originally Posted by calgirlinnc
Last week there was a story about a man who killed himself because he was so depressed from being in isolation. Why isn't HIS life important? How can you prioritize some lives and not others?
No one is saying some lives matter and others don't. The issue here is quantity. Saving a million people is more important than saving a few thousand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by calgirlinnc
Reports out of Italy show that 99% of all people who died from CV had an underlying condition such as diabetes, heart disease, asthma, etc. Their underlying conditions should not be more important than someone whose underlying condition was a mental health problem. We all should have equal priority for our lives.
Again, it's the quantity. If it were actually true that the shut downs would kill as many people as letting the virus run free, there might be an argument here. But there's no reason to believe that's actually true.
Imagine there are two sinking boats, and you can only save one. Ceteris paribus, are you saving the one with 1,000 people on it or the one with 100 people on it?
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