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Old 04-16-2020, 09:14 PM
 
198 posts, read 183,946 times
Reputation: 424

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Readily available vaccines and/or a cure for cover-19 is the only magic bullet to opening up the economy. It certainly cannot happen by decree. Our leaders can declare the lockdown over all they want, but without a true feeling of security people are still going to hunker down. Other than a few brave souls, no one will register for conferences or fly to New York to kiss up to corporate or stand shoulder to shoulder with throngs of fans to cheer on the cowboys.

Online grocery ordering, online-only conferences and meetings and even many online-only classes are the new reality. This was always going to be future. Covid-19 accelerated it by a decade.

So SW and AA are likely never going to see a return to the old traffic levels. Neither are malls and many other types of businesses. I may be overly pessimistic, and I hope I am, but I fear that this is the future we all need to prepare for.

 
Old 04-16-2020, 10:23 PM
 
28,563 posts, read 18,563,896 times
Reputation: 30802
Quote:
Originally Posted by jpushiys View Post
Readily available vaccines and/or a cure for cover-19 is the only magic bullet to opening up the economy. It certainly cannot happen by decree. Our leaders can declare the lockdown over all they want, but without a true feeling of security people are still going to hunker down. Other than a few brave souls, no one will register for conferences or fly to New York to kiss up to corporate or stand shoulder to shoulder with throngs of fans to cheer on the cowboys.

Online grocery ordering, online-only conferences and meetings and even many online-only classes are the new reality. This was always going to be future. Covid-19 accelerated it by a decade.

So SW and AA are likely never going to see a return to the old traffic levels. Neither are malls and many other types of businesses. I may be overly pessimistic, and I hope I am, but I fear that this is the future we all need to prepare for.
My wife works for a Fortune 50 insurance company that has a large hub of several leased buildings in the Dallas area (I retired from the same company several months ago). They have made most of their employees located here as well as other hubs across the nation and the company headquarters work from home.

To do that, they've made a rush of installing the hardware necessary to support the massive Internet traffic and essentially transforming the way they do business. Speaking to my former colleagues and with my wife, we really don't think the company is going to be quick in bringing everyone back into those buildings. They're probably determining if they can reduce the number of buildings they're occupying.

This undoubtedly means a good many of the support contractors have lost their business. Restaurants clustered around those buildings have lost their business. And they may not get it back.
 
Old 04-16-2020, 11:02 PM
 
Location: Frisco, TX
459 posts, read 1,739,015 times
Reputation: 460
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ralph_Kirk View Post
My wife works for a Fortune 50 insurance company that has a large hub of several leased buildings in the Dallas area (I retired from the same company several months ago). They have made most of their employees located here as well as other hubs across the nation and the company headquarters work from home.

To do that, they've made a rush of installing the hardware necessary to support the massive Internet traffic and essentially transforming the way they do business. Speaking to my former colleagues and with my wife, we really don't think the company is going to be quick in bringing everyone back into those buildings. They're probably determining if they can reduce the number of buildings they're occupying.

This undoubtedly means a good many of the support contractors have lost their business. Restaurants clustered around those buildings have lost their business. And they may not get it back.
This whole thing is so interesting to me. I work for a tech company that had a hub here in DFW, and now that we are working remote - everyone is asking, why do we even need office space? can we live without it? Interesting what might become the new normal. We had a survey around cost reductions where it was floated around a permanent reduction in office space... it was a no brainer that people wanted to continue to work from home.
 
Old 04-17-2020, 09:14 AM
 
4,148 posts, read 6,837,227 times
Reputation: 7094
Quote:
Originally Posted by stargirl007 View Post
This whole thing is so interesting to me. I work for a tech company that had a hub here in DFW, and now that we are working remote - everyone is asking, why do we even need office space? can we live without it? Interesting what might become the new normal. We had a survey around cost reductions where it was floated around a permanent reduction in office space... it was a no brainer that people wanted to continue to work from home.
I don't mind working from home, but I still prefer working in our office.

I miss my train ride every day, I miss the life and human interaction walking around downtown, I miss the view from the high rise office, and I am missing the real-time collaboration that inherently comes with working in Architecture on large projects.

Totally agree that working from home should be available to more jobs and people shouldnt expect everyone to come into the office every day. But, I actually really enjoy a lot from the social and cultural interactions that come from the work environment, especially working in a central business district.
 
Old 04-17-2020, 10:19 AM
 
Location: In a George Strait Song
9,545 posts, read 7,004,571 times
Reputation: 14045
I think realistically what most people would appreciate is more flexibility in being able to work from home sometimes. We have gone from one extreme to the other.
 
Old 04-17-2020, 10:23 AM
 
19,483 posts, read 17,709,775 times
Reputation: 17013
Quote:
Originally Posted by stargirl007 View Post
This whole thing is so interesting to me. I work for a tech company that had a hub here in DFW, and now that we are working remote - everyone is asking, why do we even need office space? can we live without it? Interesting what might become the new normal. We had a survey around cost reductions where it was floated around a permanent reduction in office space... it was a no brainer that people wanted to continue to work from home.
This is a very interesting and complex topic. My wife is CIO of a fairly large insurance/finance company. Pre-coronavirus various departments in her company attempted to, "remote" masses of finance, accounting, some engineering and IT people across several cities and overseas as well. The effort has failed every time. She's also close to several dozen other CIOs and opinions and results tend to track what my wife has seen. She and about a dozen of her pals just finished a paper on this so I'll stay away from the good stuff.


Just because people want to work from home does not mean they should.
 
Old 04-17-2020, 10:51 AM
 
Location: Dallas, TX
937 posts, read 2,894,494 times
Reputation: 320
Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
This is a very interesting and complex topic. My wife is CIO of a fairly large insurance/finance company. Pre-coronavirus various departments in her company attempted to, "remote" masses of finance, accounting, some engineering and IT people across several cities and overseas as well. The effort has failed every time. She's also close to several dozen other CIOs and opinions and results tend to track what my wife has seen. She and about a dozen of her pals just finished a paper on this so I'll stay away from the good stuff.


Just because people want to work from home does not mean they should.
Could you highlight the issues that caused the failure? I am curious about the challenges and if they happen to particular departments or apply to everyone.
 
Old 04-17-2020, 11:14 AM
 
Location: Houston, TX
8,196 posts, read 5,312,911 times
Reputation: 12026
Quote:
Originally Posted by jpushiys View Post
Readily available vaccines and/or a cure for cover-19 is the only magic bullet to opening up the economy. It certainly cannot happen by decree. Our leaders can declare the lockdown over all they want, but without a true feeling of security people are still going to hunker down. Other than a few brave souls, no one will register for conferences or fly to New York to kiss up to corporate or stand shoulder to shoulder with throngs of fans to cheer on the cowboys.

Online grocery ordering, online-only conferences and meetings and even many online-only classes are the new reality. This was always going to be future. Covid-19 accelerated it by a decade.

So SW and AA are likely never going to see a return to the old traffic levels. Neither are malls and many other types of businesses. I may be overly pessimistic, and I hope I am, but I fear that this is the future we all need to prepare for.
It doesnt have to be a vaccine but some sort of effective treatment is needed. Medical treatment is the difference between an infection being a serial killer vs. a minor annoyance. If they can find a drug or series of drugs that can put this virus in its place by shortening severity and duration, life can return to some semblance of normal though not necessarily what we knew in 2019.

I work in the airline industry as a consultant and while travel is down, its certainly not going to be out. We live in a global society and this virus will not change that long term. Long term were projecting travel to be cut by 20% vs. 2019 levels. It also depends heavily on region. Assuming a treatment is found in the beginning of summer, this is what we are projecting:

Domestic travel will make the quickest rebound. Were projecting 70-80% of 2019 levels by years end.
Latin America will be the quickest to rebound internationally. Were projecting 80% return by Q2 of 2021.
Asia will lag significantly. Were projecting 50% levels by Q2 of 2021.
Europe will be most damaged. Were projecting 50% levels by Q3 of 2021.

Again, if no treatment (again, not a vaccine but treatment) is found in that time frame this will be pushed back. This is based on a lot of different models, data, and algorithms that we have put together.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80 View Post
I honestly don’t know about AA vs SWA for business. AA obviously has the long-haul business class flights but I also know a lot of small business owners who operate in TX/Southwest who live on SWA every week. SWA has done better financially than AA over the long term but I don’t know enough about the industry to compare them.
There are quite a few reasons Southwest has done better. Below is my take:

1) Adjustment to de-regulation. In the days before 1979, the government would tell the airlines where, when and how often they could fly. However, this only applied to travel between states. Southwest made their bread and butter flying within Texas so they never had to play by federal rules for much of their network. By the time there was no need for approval, Southwest was much more ready.
2) Employee relations. AA has the worst management/labor relations of any other airline in the industry. The Labor Unions never forgave Don Carty for dishing out bonuses to himself and management while forcing the workforce to take massive cuts. Gerard Arpey tried to make some amends but it was too little too late. That bitterness still thrives in the corporate culture there. Southwest doesnt have this problem.
3) Fleet commonality. Southwest only flies Boeing 737s. When you only have to train your pilots and flight crew on one type of aircraft, costs are much lower.
4) Aircraft utilization. Southwest has a much better aircraft utilization rate than American.
 
Old 04-17-2020, 11:20 AM
 
5,683 posts, read 4,088,526 times
Reputation: 7401
AA and Southwest are on opposite ends of the spectrum relative to weathering Covid. AA has the highest debt relative to size and revenue of any major airline. If I were betting on who would either go bankrupt or be subject to an acquisition on undesirable terms, it would be AA. Southwest has far less debt relative to size and revenue and is in a much better position to get through this.
 
Old 04-17-2020, 11:21 AM
 
19,483 posts, read 17,709,775 times
Reputation: 17013
Quote:
Originally Posted by lpepping View Post
Could you highlight the issues that caused the failure? I am curious about the challenges and if they happen to particular departments or apply to everyone.
A good number of worker's productivity metrics begin to falter after a few weeks working at home. A few are terrible from the start.

A good number of managers become significantly ineffective when remote from workers.

More deadlines are missed. More lower quality work must be corrected.

_____________

My wife's thinking on this is all of these problems and about a dozen more are surmountable but the effort will be very significant and costly across most sectors. Poorly capitalized organizations or those with less than top notch upper management will struggle. As there will be expectations vs. results mismatches.


ETA - may be a really important topic for DFW going forward.

Last edited by EDS_; 04-17-2020 at 11:40 AM..
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