Coronavirus in DFW - News & Discussion (Dallas, West: Wal-mart, cities)

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by Katana49

You can extrapolate the data based on current confirmed numbers. Johns Hopkins reports global confirmed cases at 2,215,000, and 151,000 deaths, which is a 6.8% mortality rate.


For the US, we have 683,786 cases and 34,575 deaths, which is 5% mortality rate.


There are many cases that are going unreported, but at the same time, there are many deaths not being recorded due to a lack of testing. Statistically speaking, we have enough confirmed cases to be able to predict the mortality rate fairly accurately.

The number of unreported cases will outnumber the unreported deaths by many, many times. I personally know quite a few people who either had it and didn’t know it was that or were asymptomatic and only found out they had it when their roommates started showing symptoms.

I don’t think we can predict it with any sense of accuracy until testing is so widespread anyone can get one for any reason. Especially the antibody tests. The estimated 20% of people who are asymptomatic that we currently have no tally of have to be factored in.

One thing to consider as well is that we have treatment and vaccines for the flu. We not have either for COVID. If we did, would their mortality rates be similar? We won’t know the answer to that for some time.

[Katana49]

Originally Posted by CHRockwell

LOL. Except tons of experts says differently per that exact article. I think it is naive if you think the US has had 683,786 cases. My guess it is over 5M. The facts don't add up. This thing is exponentially more contagious than the flu (that is universally agreed on) but only 683,786 have had it? I am not buying that.

Anyone who has watched national news has seen numerous people who have been tested that showed they had this and are not counted among the 683,786.

In Dallas County for this highly contagious situation only 2500 or so have had it? No chance.

... I guess you didn't comprehend my post.

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

The number of unreported cases will outnumber the unreported deaths by many, many times. I personally know quite a few people who either had it and didn’t know it was that or were asymptomatic and only found out they had it when their roommates started showing symptoms.

I don’t think we can predict it with any sense of accuracy until testing is so widespread anyone can get one for any reason. Especially the antibody tests. The estimated 20% of people who are asymptomatic that we currently have no tally of have to be factored in.

One thing to consider as well is that we have treatment and vaccines for the flu. We not have either for COVID. If we did, would their mortality rates be similar? We won’t know the answer to that for some time.

Of course the number of unreported cases will outnumber unreported deaths... with a mortality rate of 5%, it could outnumber the unreported deaths by 20X and still be an accurate figure.

[CHRockwell]

Originally Posted by Katana49

... I guess you didn't comprehend my post.





Of course the number of unreported cases will outnumber unreported deaths... with a mortality rate of 5%, it could outnumber the unreported deaths by 20X and still be an accurate figure.

Yes I did comprehend. I believe you are wrong as do many experts. I think we will eventually see that many more people in DFW had this and that the deaths were close to spot on.

[Katana49]

Originally Posted by CHRockwell

Yes I did comprehend. I believe you are wrong as do many experts. I think we will eventually see that many more people in DFW had this and that the deaths were close to spot on.

Ah, yes. That would make perfect sense that unreported cases are wildly inaccurate yet deaths are spot on.

[CHRockwell]

Originally Posted by Katana49

Ah, yes. That would make perfect sense that unreported cases are wildly inaccurate yet deaths are spot on.

Actually it would. Deaths overall are far easier to track than unreported cases for asymptomatic situations. Plus if you read the data you would see that numerator (deaths) are more accurate than denominator (actual cases) in every single study.

One can look at premature death rate in DFW and get pretty accurate Covid possible deaths.

For example in Dallas lets say there were about 30 Covid deaths they reported in a day. Is it likely exactly 30? No. Is it maybe 40 or maybe even 50? Sure. Is it 5000? No. It is well possible that cases could be underreported by hundreds of thousands in Dallas though.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by Katana49

Ah, yes. That would make perfect sense that unreported cases are wildly inaccurate yet deaths are spot on.

I would guess that there are probably hundreds (if not thousands) of times more unreported cases than unreported deaths. I do disagree that there is anyway to get a remotely accurate death rate right now. I doubt we’re getting anything less than 98% of reported deaths.

I theorize that when this is said and done the death rate will be close to 1%.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

Correction - Dallas County, not city of Dallas.

Clay Jenkins has copied almost every CA/NY mandate at a time when Dallas had a lot lower case numbers and hospitalizations. When it’s time to debrief local response at a later date, I truly believe his actions - however oppressive they seem to some people - kept Dallas from becoming a “hotspot” (so far).

Our case numbers are obviously suppressed due to limited testing, but hospitalizations haven’t overwhelmed the system and deaths are relatively low (2.5% of confirmed cases vs 6-13% in cities that have had major outbreaks). It still must be reminded that 2.5% is NOT a low mortality %....the flu runs in the .1% range so this is 25X more deadly than the flu. We need to keep taking it seriously until the daily new cases plummet into the 5-10/day range.

It's looking more and more as though the "real" death rate for CV-19 in The US will be far below 1%.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...article_inline

[CHRockwell]

Originally Posted by EDS_

It's looking more and more as though the "real" death rate for CV-19 in The US will be far below 1%.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...article_inline

First thank you for this and from this

These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.


If you take in the middle and use "70 fold" for easy math then it pretty much proves that Katana saying"That would make perfect sense that unreported cases are wildly inaccurate yet deaths are spot on" is actually pretty accurate even though he said it sarcastically.

[mschrief]

Soon, very soon, it will be a great time to be a lawyer....

[RJ312]

Originally Posted by mschrief

Soon, very soon, it will be a great time to be a lawyer....

That's debatable. For a long time, law schools have been pumping out too many newly minted JDs relative to the needs of the employment market. That problem was quite acute during the recessionary times of the late 2000s/early 2010s.

For those JDs who can get lawyer jobs, things are looking decent. Demand for bankruptcy lawyers is going to be high for a while. Family lawyers are already reporting more initial inquiries and divorce filings, so they will also be busy for a while.