Dallas economy moving forward vs other TX cities (Houston, Garland: real estate market, 2015)

[robertobaggio]

Hi everyone. Planning to move from out of state to Houston in July as my spouse, a physician, has secured job. The job is actually with a Dallas based corporation so they would likely have space in a medical practice in the Dallas/Ft Worth area as well although no guarantee.

We used to live in Houston prior to 2017 when we had to move away for her residency. Before moving, I was working in corporate finance in an O&G company. While I kept a good relationship with them, the company is no longer an option for me since they are likely heading for bankruptcy unfortunately along with many other O&G companies. I am ideally looking to do finance for companies not in O&G.

My spouse signed the offer in February before the whole Coronavirus deal and especially before the crush in oil price which no doubt will impact the job market in Texas severely. So my question is whether there are real reasons to believe that Dallas will be significantly less impacted than Houston and would be worth the try? I have more contacts in Houston and I have almost none in Dallas.

As I have been out of the market for over a year for family commitments, I am quite worried about the beginning of a major energy downturn (or extension of the 2015 downturn which really never ended) and how it will affect my chances in TX. I have an MBA from a top 20 school and 8-9 years of experience in finance.

[WorldKlas]

There just seems to be more diversity of industries in DFW plus more Fortune 500 headquarters than in Houston.

[clcrash29]

Absolutely Dallas will come out way stronger, because the diversity of all the economic industries.. i worry about houston with oil and gas dependency. I run a small company and generate a lot of business in both cities.

[LongLeggedOne]

This realli looks like a citi where someone like me could do well, even if i go to an outskirt like Garland. I am hopeful on Dallas, and this comes from someone displaced in the Portland area.

[Mr. Clutch]

The answer is that both cities are going to be hit very hard by this. DFW does have a more diverse job market, but it's still heaviest in industries that will be hurt significantly coming out of this (aerospace, oil and gas, retail, etc.). It may do a little bit better than Houston, but I don't expect there to be a huge difference between the two. O&G is already pretty lean considering all of the attrition in the industry since 2015 or so.

The silver lining to this is that as a physician, I would expect that work to be somewhat less sensitive than the local job market as a whole in both Houston and Dallas. Broadly speaking though, I wouldn't expect either region to come out of this without significant damage. Even with all of this going on Houston still may be the better choice of the two because there is more medical opportunity in general, but that may or may not apply to your specific situation.

[WorldKlas]

I think real estate will be a better value in Houston metro compared to DFW. In other words, the real estate market will likely take a bigger hit. They still haven’t resolved their flooding issues in Houston.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by Mr. Clutch

The answer is that both cities are going to be hit very hard by this. DFW does have a more diverse job market, but it's still heaviest in industries that will be hurt significantly coming out of this (aerospace, oil and gas, retail, etc.). It may do a little bit better than Houston, but I don't expect there to be a huge difference between the two. O&G is already pretty lean considering all of the attrition in the industry since 2015 or so.

The silver lining to this is that as a physician, I would expect that work to be somewhat less sensitive than the local job market as a whole in both Houston and Dallas. Broadly speaking though, I wouldn't expect either region to come out of this without significant damage. Even with all of this going on Houston still may be the better choice of the two because there is more medical opportunity in general, but that may or may not apply to your specific situation.

I disagree with a lot of that. But how exactly is there more, "medical opportunity" in Houston?

[jd433]

Houston definitely has more opportunities in the medical field than Dallas does. So do a lot of other cities. Dallas has a good variety of jobs but it has little dominance in any industry.

Originally Posted by EDS_

I disagree with a lot of that. But how exactly is there more, "medical opportunity" in Houston?

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by jd433

Houston definitely has more opportunities in the medical field than Dallas does.

How? I hear people say that kind of thing all the time and there is never any backup. I think it's just preoccupation with TMC. The number of beds is almost identical, both are hubs for academic medicine etc. etc.

FWIIW my daughter is an MS-1 at Baylor College of Medicine and my son is a recent graduate of UTSW so I've paid attention to both.

[RonnieinDallas]

Originally Posted by EDS_

How? I hear people say that kind of thing all the time and there is never any backup. I think it's just preoccupation with TMC. The number of beds is almost identical, both are hubs for academic medicine etc. etc.

FWIIW my daughter is an MS-1 at Baylor College of Medicine and my son is a recent graduate of UTSW so I've paid attention to both.

I’ve read the same thing repeated for years on this forum, and always scratch my head in confusion. The claim doesn’t match my observations of the two.

As for the economy in general, who knows? It probably will have a pretty substantial negative impact. So many people have already lost their jobs.