Dallas home bidding wars 2021 (Austin, Plano: new home, neighborhoods, buying)

[WorldKlas]

I disagree that “prices have never gone down.” I have been investing in real estate since 1972.

I’ve owned houses in the DFW area since 1977. Here’s my memory.

In 1980-83 prices were high and mortgage interest rates were in the double digits. That was the worst market ever for buyers.

But a few years later, I think 1985-88 , we had a huge housing price slump.

There was another housing slump in 1994-1996, and then another in 2008-2013. And I recall that prices did soften dramatically in all those time periods.

[citidata18]

Originally Posted by WorldKlas

...But a few years later, I think 1985-88 , we had a huge housing price slump...

...There was another housing slump in 1994-1996

Nominal prices did level off in the early 1990s, but a "slump" implies they went down. That simply didn't happen.

Source:

JP's Real Estate Charts: Inflation-adjusted housing prices

Originally Posted by WorldKlas

...and then another in 2008-2013...

That has already been acknowledged. It was unprecedented too.

Prices leveling off akin to the early 1990s is probably the best new homeowners can hope for in the forseeable future. There's no chance of a 2008 repeat any time soon. Problem is, the price levels housing sits at now is already unaffordable for many and wage growth hasn't been as strong as it was back in the 90s.

[Rakin]

Originally Posted by WorldKlas

I disagree that “prices have never gone down.” I have been investing in real estate since 1972.

I’ve owned houses in the DFW area since 1977. Here’s my memory.

In 1980-83 prices were high and mortgage interest rates were in the double digits. That was the worst market ever for buyers.

But a few years later, I think 1985-88 , we had a huge housing price slump.

There was another housing slump in 1994-1996, and then another in 2008-2013. And I recall that prices did soften dramatically in all those time periods.

I mentioned I've seen 3 slumps in DFW in my earlier post and I bought my first house in 1980. Each one went down maybe 15% and after maybe 2-3 made up for those losses with a 30-40% gain.

2009-2010 was the biggie I recall and we saw in general no more than 15-20% unless you lost or picked up a foreclosure or shortsale.

80-83 was not that bad because people were buying to beat the high inflation rates. Plano and Arlington were the new construction big boom markets back then

[place]

I do not think anyone who gets a home on this rates would ever want to come out unless the home has some serious problems.

Also my wish is that there should be a tax law passed to identify people with multiple homes in the same area .. I know its an investment but money play with food , clothing and shelter should identified so it gives equal opportunity for everyone.

i am hearing now crowdfunds are buying homes as a rental investment but on the other hand families are struggling to fight the bidding war

[20Hope20]

I doubt prices will come down significantly if unemployment or interest rates went up but you may see more homes on the market and have a better selection to choose from.

[mikestrong]

There is not near enough pre existing homes on market. Its pushing many to the new home side. My community sold 12 the opening weekend.Then we are limited to 12 a month. We have 61 people on a waiting list for upcoming lots. We had to shut down all walk ins and all new appointments for the next couple of months to work thru the wait list. Of the first 12 we sold, 5 were from CA, 5 were relos from other states then CA, and 2 were local. Its insane. Its pushing new prices way up. I hate to see what lumber, materials, and labor cost will be going thru the roof with builders selling 2 to 3 times the normal amount of homes we should. Hopefully next year, once the vaccine is widely out there, the pre existing market will get back to normal to take pressure off the new home side.

[biafra4life]

Originally Posted by mikestrong

There is not near enough pre existing homes on market. Its pushing many to the new home side. My community sold 12 the opening weekend.Then we are limited to 12 a month. We have 61 people on a waiting list for upcoming lots. We had to shut down all walk ins and all new appointments for the next couple of months to work thru the wait list. Of the first 12 we sold, 5 were from CA, 5 were relos from other states then CA, and 2 were local. Its insane. Its pushing new prices way up. I hate to see what lumber, materials, and labor cost will be going thru the roof with builders selling 2 to 3 times the normal amount of homes we should. Hopefully next year, once the vaccine is widely out there, the pre existing market will get back to normal to take pressure off the new home side.

Unfortunately, dont see that happening. The existing home market is still super brutal. A buddy of mine finally closed on a 15 year old home in Fate. There were 8 other offers. He got the winning bid only because by some fluke of fate he met the owners and I guess made a good impression on them to where they sold to him. And this is FATE, nowhere near the hotspots of Collin County.

[biafra4life]

Originally Posted by place

I do not think anyone who gets a home on this rates would ever want to come out unless the home has some serious problems.

Also my wish is that there should be a tax law passed to identify people with multiple homes in the same area .. I know its an investment but money play with food , clothing and shelter should identified so it gives equal opportunity for everyone.

i am hearing now crowdfunds are buying homes as a rental investment but on the other hand families are struggling to fight the bidding war

If you dont have to be in the metroplex, then I would suggest looking elsewhere. Maybe OKC or Tulsa. All the desirable parts of Texas are being flooded with money from the coasts. The days of affordable housing are pretty much gone now. Waiting will only ensure that you pay even more later on. Either that or do as others on here have suggested and bite the bullet and buy what you can now.

[citidata18]

Originally Posted by biafra4life

Unfortunately, dont see that happening. The existing home market is still super brutal. A buddy of mine finally closed on a 15 year old home in Fate. There were 8 other offers. He got the winning bid only because by some fluke of fate he met the owners and I guess made a good impression on them to where they sold to him. And this is FATE, nowhere near the hotspots of Collin County.

There was a missed opportunity for a pun in there.

But yeah, to your point, I've given up on buying a home in Dallas. I'm not trying to live way out in Fate, Anna or Waxahachie. Fortunately, rents are still affordable (for now).

[stargirl007]

Originally Posted by mikestrong

There is not near enough pre existing homes on market. Its pushing many to the new home side. My community sold 12 the opening weekend.Then we are limited to 12 a month. We have 61 people on a waiting list for upcoming lots. We had to shut down all walk ins and all new appointments for the next couple of months to work thru the wait list. Of the first 12 we sold, 5 were from CA, 5 were relos from other states then CA, and 2 were local. Its insane. Its pushing new prices way up. I hate to see what lumber, materials, and labor cost will be going thru the roof with builders selling 2 to 3 times the normal amount of homes we should. Hopefully next year, once the vaccine is widely out there, the pre existing market will get back to normal to take pressure off the new home side.

This is just crazy but I believe it. I live in still a fairly new area, my neighborhood is built out, but there's still a lot of construction surrounding us -- most coming into our neighborhood are all CA/otherwise relos. A small, small handful of 'relocating DFW locals' like us.

I have family that are in the process of building in a community near us, they were able to get one of the pre-sale opportunities. Now that their community is open, the builder changed the floor plan they picked to require a media room (it was previously optional/upgrade) and now have raised the advertised price $75K more than what was listed when they selected and went under contract. This is maybe a 3 month timeframe difference.. it's insane.