How much bigger will DFW population be? (Dallas, Fort Worth: apartment, neighborhood)

[TXCritter]

Originally Posted by Soonhun

I don't know how this is obvious to anyone. So much can happen and it is possible the DFW stabilizes or even starts declining before hitting either number. Personally, I think it will likely hit eleven million at some point, which is what I voted for, but I doubt it will hit fourteen.



As a native born Texan, raised in DFW my entire life, I am disgusted by this sort of attitude some people have towards the rest of the state, especially towards the rural areas.

Long time lurker here but I couldn’t take the bigotry from certain individuals on this forum, including out of state folks talking down on poorer rural people.

Us Texans always say that the rural areas are the gems of the states and areas where people leave to escape the big city madness. I now work in a rural area but worked in the DFW area before, and what the poster you responded too believes sounds like pure delusion and fiction. They hold prejudices against people they don’t know and seem okay to stereotype without hesitation.

[TXCritter]

Originally Posted by Fiber Guy

In the mid 80's a friend from Chicago told me one day DFW would have as many people as his hometown of Chicago, L.A. & NYC. At the time I said you are NUTS! LOL! Look where we are today! For me it is GREAT!

Texas is finally leaving behind the bible thumping ignorant state that it is today! Diversity, newly built nationally ranked universities, more and more national and worldwide corporate relocations will finally make Texas a World Class place to live. Good riddance to oil as the be all and end all of Texas' fortunes! We still have so many Texans living in squalor and low-paying jobs, so sad and so unnecessary. Poverty and lack of educational opportunities have crippled many of our fellow Texans. We can do so much more for our fellow Texans and their families!

1985 DFW population 3,535,000

2021 DFW population 6,397,000

You are one closed minded individual who stereotypes others without hesitation. My family is Mexican-American but your post is disgusting and full of ignorance.

Nothing worse than individuals like yourself broadly labeling people you have no clue about. I pity your sad existence.

Do you also hold these same attitudes to small towns that are dominated by Tejanos or just a certain race of small town people? Your attitude takes us back in time...

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by Soonhun

I don't know how this is obvious to anyone. So much can happen and it is possible the DFW stabilizes or even starts declining before hitting either number. Personally, I think it will likely hit eleven million at some point, which is what I voted for, but I doubt it will hit fourteen.

Has there been a single metro area in the United States since 1900 that was a top-10 area by population but subsequently saw a population decrease? Even classic examples of shrinking cities like St. Louis have seen their metro population increase significantly. I have a hard time believing that when the US has a billion people and the world has 30 billion people that DFW will not have even doubled.

[TXCritter]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

Has there been a single metro area in the United States since 1900 that was a top-10 area by population but subsequently saw a population decrease? Even classic examples of shrinking cities like St. Louis have seen their metro population increase significantly. I have a hard time believing that when the US has a billion people and the world has 30 billion people that DFW will not have even doubled.

Look at California cities for your answer. Without illegal immigrants and foreign nationals the state would be in free fall. They make it up by exploiting foreign nationals and cramming them into small apartments. Prove me wrong, but as Mark Twain said about statistics....

[jpushiys]

The world population is currently at 7.8 billion. Most projections don't see population growing forever though. The rate at which it is growing is slowing down and peak human population will likely reach 11 billion or so by 2100. Some projections (the UN for one) put it at 14 billion.

Why won't we just grow forever ? This video from Hans Rosling is one way to understand it.

So - if we assume that some of the above projections are right, the world population stops short of doubling from where we are and peaks at say 14 billion. US peaks at a bit less than 0.5 billion which is an approx 1.5x increase from where we are now (very rough numbers). If we assume DFW grows at the same rate as the US (in general), that's 7.5 million x 1.5 = 11.25 million.

If we assume DFW grows at a much faster rate than the rest of the nation at say x 2 , then we are at 15 million.

I am going to bet on the former, as I believe WFH will slowly erode at the value prop of metro areas in general, so I'm betting we'll end up at approx 11 mil peak population.

Of course if u believe Pew Research and Hans Rosling etc. about peak human population that is. If not, then all these numbers are out the window and I have no basis for making an estimate without a time window.

[elnina]

For DFW, the 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.9%, down from 20.9% for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield said.

As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW’s population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.
https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/sou...ion-is-booming

DFW population is expected to reach almost 12 million by the year 2050.

Texas' population is projected to double by 2050, according to a report from Texas' Office of the State Demographer.

[Leonard123]

Originally Posted by Fiber Guy

Texas is finally leaving behind the bible thumping ignorant state that it is today!

I think this statement is vile and ignorant. I'd rather live in a "Bible thumping ignorant state" full of poverty than a liberal egghead atheist state flush with cash.

Anyway, the metro area as the Census Bureau defines it is too large to be meaningful. I would guess the desirable portions I know probably can't handle more than 5 percent ever if that. There is not enough land or infrastructure. The rural fringes have the land but not the infrastructure, and even if they did, there isn't anything to draw anyone there. In both cases, our messed up supply chains and building delays are going to significantly slow if not stop a lot of growth for a very long time to come.

I think the growth is in the process of hitting a peak right now.

[Ivory Lee Spurlock]

As long as the United States continues to grow by leaps and bounds, I would expect Texas to continue to be among the fastest growing states in the country. The population of the United States has nearly doubled since 1960 and it has increased by nearly 1.5 times since 1970. There were 5 cities over a million in 1960 and 6 cities over a million in 1970. 51 years later there 11 cities over a million and at least 8 of those 11 cities are in Texas and California. In 1960 and 1970, a city over 100,000 was considered a big city. Unless the bottom completely falls out of everything, I expect DFW and all the other major Texas metros to continue to be among the fastest growing cities/metros in the nation.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by jpushiys

The world population is currently at 7.8 billion. Most projections don't see population growing forever though. The rate at which it is growing is slowing down and peak human population will likely reach 11 billion or so by 2100. Some projections (the UN for one) put it at 14 billion.

Why won't we just grow forever ? This video from Hans Rosling is one way to understand it.

So - if we assume that some of the above projections are right, the world population stops short of doubling from where we are and peaks at say 14 billion. US peaks at a bit less than 0.5 billion which is an approx 1.5x increase from where we are now (very rough numbers). If we assume DFW grows at the same rate as the US (in general), that's 7.5 million x 1.5 = 11.25 million.

If we assume DFW grows at a much faster rate than the rest of the nation at say x 2 , then we are at 15 million.

I am going to bet on the former, as I believe WFH will slowly erode at the value prop of metro areas in general, so I'm betting we'll end up at approx 11 mil peak population.

Of course if u believe Pew Research and Hans Rosling etc. about peak human population that is. If not, then all these numbers are out the window and I have no basis for making an estimate without a time window.

This is really interesting -- thanks for posting. I read up a bit on this, and it seems that some researchers put the peak global population figure even lower than the UN. Some forecast the peak happening as soon as 2064. It makes sense if you think about declining populations in European countries.

And then there's the possibility that the singularity could render humans obsolete...

[Julio July]

At this point, why would you even WANT DFW's population to get any bigger...? Just for bragging rights for most on this forum, I suppose.