Towns or Cities that May Deteriorate (Denver, Colorado Springs: real estate, rental, loan)

[rebagirl]

My husband and I have been looking into moving to Colorado for quite some time--still job-hunting and researching various areas. Where we live now (in California), we feel our town is O.K, but certainly not what it was 15-20 years ago. It used to be mostly caucasian, with a few other ethnic groups represented. It also was fairly safe. Through the years, we have noticed the area becoming unattractive. Graffiti is much closer to home, we read about shootings nearby, and the public schools are faced with trying to teach an unbelievably high amount of students who have very little command of the English language. I do not have a problem with the color of anyone's skin (my friends are of several ethnic groups and a few are inter racially married, which is a non-issue in my opinion). However, I DO have a problem with people who deface property and try to run down the entire area. Even though our town is still not too bad, the ugly is beginning to creep in.

In your opinion, are there any specific areas surrounding Denver that you feel are headed in the wrong direction as far as safety, graffiti, etc. are concerned? For example, I know North Aurora is undesirable and that Southeast Aurora is much nicer. However, do you anticipate North Aurora's problems creeping into either Southeast Aurora or Parker? And are the more established neighborhoods such as older Littleton or Centennial more immune to these types of problems?

I know no one can predict the future, but I'm just wondering if anyone might have a hunch. Thanks.

[OutOfSoCal]

Great question I like you live in SO Cal and will be in CO next summer. I will be following this closely.
Sounds Like we have heard/read the same things. South Aurora, Commerce City- stay away. Anywhere wheres theres dense population and cheap housing is open for these issues. With the new housing issues high rental areas are also a concern.

BTW where in So Cal, We are in San Dimas about 25 miles EAST of LA

[rebagirl]

Originally Posted by OutOfSoCal

Great question I like you live in SO Cal and will be in CO next summer. I will be following this closely.
Sounds Like we have heard/read the same things. South Aurora, Commerce City- stay away. Anywhere wheres theres dense population and cheap housing is open for these issues. With the new housing issues high rental areas are also a concern.

BTW where in So Cal, We are in San Dimas about 25 miles EAST of LA

Whoa! We're neighbors! I'm in Covina (Charter Oak side of town). We spend lots of time in San Dimas--church, friends, Western Days, Farmer's Market, and the occasional breakfast at Roady's. Send me a direct message if you'd like to chat!

[2bindenver]

I have a completely different view. I would move to Aurora or Commerce City and raise my family there in a minute. I would move to Thornton, Denver, Lakewood, anywhere in the metro area. Yes, I am a real estate broker, my job is to make people move. But, the reputation of Aurora and Commerce City is largely undeserved. There are parts of every city in the country that you would not want to be in the middle of.

Commerce City was an industrial armpit - now it is home to some very nice families that enjoy living close to the city and the airport. The city leaders are working very hard to upgrade the city's public image.

I think Denver is on the verge of a boom. I have seen it happen here before. Many people are moving here and they are bringing high expectations of a particular lifestyle with them. I cannot change Denver to fit their expectations, however untrue or unlikely.

What harm is there in keeping all your options open? There is no such thing as the perfect home or community. Everybody is adaptable to the realities of the situation. People who know what they like don't have a hard time finding a home in a community here.

Most of my relocation buyer's who had a house to sell in other areas last year, rented, and none of them are happy about the current secondary loan market and wish they were more realistic last year about the house prices and made the leap...Hindsight is always 20/20.

What will next year bring? No idea. It's an election year...should be interesting.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by 2bindenver

I think Denver is on the verge of a boom. I have seen it happen here before. Many people are moving here and they are bringing high expectations of a particular lifestyle with them.

Do you think the boom is due to people moving to less expensive big cities (like Denver) from places like the east coast and California, OR do you think there is something internal to Denver that is making it more attractive (for example up and coming industries in the area doing lots of hiring)?
Also, do you think the boom would be Denver only OR, would there be a boom elsewhere, like Colorado Springs for example? If so why?

[yukon]

I'm not a resident, just a visitor - but SE Aurora definitely does NOT deserve the bad rep people here on the forum give it. I just spent 4 days in the
Denver metro area, including areas that posters on the forum said were bad (I'm a thrift shop junkie and thrift stores are often in "bad" parts of town). I found SE Aurora to be a very nice, very diverse and very friendly area. It was also convenient to the DTC, downtown, and the airport. I liked how it has access to these areas via freeways, toll roads, surface streets, and mass transit. I'd live there in a heartbeat. I had no problem with the older parts of Aurora either, there's some good shopping there. If I were buying, SE Aurora has some awesome townhome developments. The new one on Chambers off Parker had me drooling all the way home to Tampa.

On a side note, Lone Tree was really nice, too.

[rebagirl]

Thanks for the replies.

2bindenver: I assume that since you would buy a house in Commerce, Aurora, Lakewood, Thornton, etc., you don't predict any of these areas becoming undesirable. I realize no place is perfect, but just like most parents, I am concerned about my kids' safety and what they are exposed to on a regular basis.

Yukon: I agree that most of Aurora looks awesome. In fact, I have family in the north, so-called ghetto portion of Aurora. The homes are older, kind of boxy looking, but certainly not ghetto. I never felt unsafe during my visit. Would I buy a house there? Probably not. However, I do want to be near family, which is why I'm interested in Southeast Aurora or Parker. I have also looked into Centennial/Littleton, west of the 25.

My original question was to find out if there are any areas that seem to be headed in the wrong direction--meaning a lack of cleanliness, safety, attractiveness or charm. When we do buy, it will be our home for a long time, so just want to make a good decision the first time around.

[EscapeCalifornia]

You might want to use "Students Eligible for Free and Reduced Lunch" in the local elementary schools as an indicator of the overall condition of the neighborhood and where its heading. When a lot of people move into an area and have more kids than they can feed, that's usually a bad sign and the elementary schools are going to feel it first.

Reports on every school in the state are available at:
School Accountability Report - School Search (http://reportcard.cde.state.co.us/reportcard/CommandHandler.jsp - broken link)

Free/reduced lunch percentage is on the first page of each school's detailed report in PDF.

[tfox]

The only place I really see deteriorating rapidly is Montbello. That neighborhood seems to have absorbed all of the poverty displaced by Denver's gentrification, and now with the subprime crisis it seems to be in meltdown. I'd be a little worried if I lived within a mile or so of Montbello, if things start to spread.

Luckily for the OP, SE Aurora is nowhere near Montbello.

[formercalifornian]

Originally Posted by 2bindenver

Most of my relocation buyer's who had a house to sell in other areas last year, rented, and none of them are happy about the current secondary loan market and wish they were more realistic last year about the house prices and made the leap...Hindsight is always 20/20.

Can you elaborate on this statement? How is the secondary loan market making your clients regret their choices? I'm not being facetious; I am genuinely interested in why they would think this way. Are your clients still waiting to sell their previous homes? In many areas, housing prices are flat or falling (yes, I know there are exceptions), so waiting shouldn't pose financial hardship on a traditional buyer who has a 20% down-payment. Reading between the lines, it appears that your buyers, who may or may not be a fair representation of the general public, have been pushed out of the market because they can no longer qualify under the tighter financing rules. Is that the case, or is there some other explanation I'm missing?