Denver Real Estate Discussion / Opinion Thread (NO Data Charts) (Boulder: transplants, construction loan)

[davebarnes]

Originally Posted by Phil P

especially as the US population growth rate drops

If we have the political will, we can fix that easily.

[2bindenver]

Originally Posted by MN_Ski

Yeah but the current inventory is crap. I feel like it's just bad homeowners trying to make a quick buck to get rid of their bad investment. A lot of stuff out there has been on the market for a while.

If finding a higher quality home means paying an extra 3-5% in Spring, cool.

Maybe, maybe not. Plenty of people need to sell before their new house is built, they relocate, they combine households.

Do you search every day?

Selling a house is the least like making a quick buck.

You may not be paying 5% more for a house in March, but there will be more competition from other buyers.

[MN_Ski]

Originally Posted by 2bindenver

Maybe, maybe not. Plenty of people need to sell before their new house is built, they relocate, they combine households.

Do you search every day?

Selling a house is the least like making a quick buck.

You may not be paying 5% more for a house in March, but there will be more competition from other buyers.

Yeah I do check almost every day.

As far as people trying to make a quick buck, it's pretty clear sometimes just by checking the price list history.

I have seen properties that were bought for say, 325K in Oct 2017. Then relisted for 500K in Sep. Then every week, it drops by 5-10K...until it sits for a long time around the 400K mark. That is a huge red flag for me.

I know this is just the disadvantage of living in the age of Zillow, but at least the homes on the market in Summer just *seem* a little more sound.

[SirJohnHarington]

It looks like on the December DMAR report inventory of residential properties in the Denver metro went up more than 47% from last year.

SFH inventory is up 41% and condo inventory is up 61%.

What could possibly cause this? Will this continue?

[Phil P]

Originally Posted by LHS79

I think we saw this around 2008 and it did not turn out so well!

The general consensus, my opinion included, is we aren't going to see another 2008 meltdown, but even if we just a smaller decline, the most unafforable new homebuyer city, Denver, is the place where it's going to hurt the most.

Originally Posted by davebarnes

If we have the political will, we can fix that easily.

Yeah, but in the longer picture, the millennial / baby boomer demographic bubble will go away. I think millennial are at peak home buying age now, age 29, from what I've read.

[Willy702]

Originally Posted by MN_Ski

Yeah I do check almost every day.

As far as people trying to make a quick buck, it's pretty clear sometimes just by checking the price list history.

I have seen properties that were bought for say, 325K in Oct 2017. Then relisted for 500K in Sep. Then every week, it drops by 5-10K...until it sits for a long time around the 400K mark. That is a huge red flag for me.

I know this is just the disadvantage of living in the age of Zillow, but at least the homes on the market in Summer just *seem* a little more sound.

Why is the fact that flippers can't make a big profit raise a red flag for you? I saw the so called price decreases in the under $400k market. Many decreases were strategic, just to draw attention to the listing. A lot of them were $100 or $1000, decreases that were not going to get any activity and sure enough those rarely went pending as it showed the sellers weren't serious about selling at the market price. The most significant decreases were usually $5k, so about 1% of previous selling price. When prices were dropped 3% or more, the homes almost always went pending. Nothing suggesting fire sales were coming though. If someone thought they could flip and earn 50% on that, well sorry their timing was bad because no one is paying a premium like that.

I just bought recently, more than happy with the price I negotiated down to. I found a motivated buyer that had already moved out of the country which usually yields a good price. The homes I saved to watch during my hunt almost all went under contract or pending, with the sales prices pretty close to final listing price.
The couple homes that didn't seemed overpriced and just went off listing instead of having sellers get serious about selling. Even with the influx of inventory and higher price points found now, almost everything is moving within 30-60 days it seems at lower price points.

All in all it seems like a pretty rational and normal market these days under $500k. There is some inventory now which is great for buyers as we finally get some choices in areas where there were no options before. The rise in rates isn't great, but its still cheaper to buy than rent in most cases, but its gotten much closer now. I'd worry the increase in prices would have led to a much bigger bump in inventory, but in a market like Denver where homeowners really don't seem to want to move out, it seems quite unlikely we will see that spike.

[Mike from back east]

The percentage of sales in Denver that received multiple offers was 27% in November 2018, down from 42% in November 2017. Most cities were down, some quite a bit, as higher interest rates take a bite out of home sales.

[2bindenver]

Now how do “they” know?

Anything under $300,000 gets multiple overasking offers, the over $600,000 maybe not.

[Tool Shed]

https://www.denverpost.com/2018/10/0...ket-goes-cold/

This is happening all over the country now, Orlando, Vegas, San Diego, Bay Area, Seattle, NYC.

[2bindenver]

If you want or need to buy from now to mid March is good. Then Easter weekend, then August to Thanksgiving.