Two 40 story towers coming to Denver

[N610DL]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

I said it before, that these huge projects signify the near-end of a business cycle and a downturn is looming. Bloomberg somewhat corroborates that with this article.

IMO we are very near the end of one of the longest bull markets we've seen. Merger & Acquisition activity is strong, across many sectors, another signal that "the end is near" for a bull market -- too much cash building up in corporate treasuries. The gist of this, IMO, is that if ground has not been broken by now then a lot of large projects that were so loudly announced will be shelved.

Lastly, how many more black swan events can we incur before it clobbers the economic numbers. Another Cat 5 Hurricane (Maria) is blasting it's way across the Caribbean today and expected to clobber Puerto Rico within days. How many tens of billions of dollars of insurance losses and federal relief money can be expended before it tips us into recession and shuts down most of these building plans.

These towers may or may not move forward at this time, but I suspect they will happen some day.

I'm not so sure about a complete recession is coming - I think the tech industry will take a hit in the Bay Area since that happens once every 10 years or so (and it's been way too aggressive on this round of the cycle). The hurricane is really a non issue when it comes to the economy. I'll give "Big Don" credit on the front of getting things cleaned up rather quickly so far.

That all said, Denver does not need these towers. Fine for Miami, but ridiculous for Denver's skyline.

[DenverBound41]

Originally Posted by MN_Ski

I do not doubt the future of a project like this, but this exact project/developer was shady from the start. It looks like the plans were just regurgitated from his failed project in Florida.

I also do not expect that supposed 700ft tower to be built any time soon...maybe the next boom (if there is one).

Agreed, there is a tremendous need for "for-sale" housing downtown, but this project was never going to happen. Not surprised.

[DenBronco8]

Originally Posted by DenverBound41

Agreed, there is a tremendous need for "for-sale" housing downtown, but this project was never going to happen. Not surprised.

It's still happening but without Renzi. It will be ground breaking next summer.

[DenverBound41]

Ok, sure. I would love to be wrong, but I will stand by my statement.

[the topper]

Party's over for Downtown Denver

[Willy702]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

I said it before, that these huge projects signify the near-end of a business cycle and a downturn is looming. Bloomberg somewhat corroborates that with this article.

Excerpts: "The construction of large corporate headquarters and skyscrapers often turns out to be a sign of an economic peak....Employment in the San Jose metro area had its largest drop in August in 7 years. It's fallen in 4 of the 8 months in 2017, and sits at a level not much higher than it reached at the peak of the dot-com boom almost 17 years ago....the labor force has begun to shrink, indicating that one of the strongest labor markets in the country is no longer bringing people in....The culprit is familiar: the housing market. ....

IMO we are very near the end of one of the longest bull markets we've seen. Merger & Acquisition activity is strong, across many sectors, another signal that "the end is near" for a bull market -- too much cash building up in corporate treasuries. The gist of this, IMO, is that if ground has not been broken by now then a lot of large projects that were so loudly announced will be shelved.

Lastly, how many more black swan events can we incur before it clobbers the economic numbers. Another Cat 5 Hurricane (Maria) is blasting it's way across the Caribbean today and expected to clobber Puerto Rico within days. How many tens of billions of dollars of insurance losses and federal relief money can be expended before it tips us into recession and shuts down most of these building plans.

These towers may or may not move forward at this time, but I suspect they will happen some day.

Agreed there are risks but seems you kinda make the case for why there won't be a recession, For starters, disasters almost never cause recessions. They cause some displacements but the aggregate demand increases like in the case of Katrina where people moved to other areas driving up their economies. Due to the limited disasters in the Front Range disasters elsewhere probably lead to a slight boost to the local economy here. For the larger economy, disasters support wage earners and small businesses who tend to spend more of their incomes boosting the economy. Where the economy loses and recessions get triggered are financial driven gains which are indeed a risk today. Something will push the economy into recession eventually, but I wouldn't go looking for signs that necessarily were present in past recessions. The economy is vastly different from the last true recession that came from overheated business cycle.

Office buildings in general are declining. Remote workers and project based employment reduces the need for office space. Flexible space is growing in demand, but that will rarely translate into trophy buildings. I think this will drive a reduction in trophy buildings no matter what the economy does.

[flamadiddle]

Looks nice, but the building next to it is a bunch of whack jobs. I used to park on top of the greyhound station and there was always weird stuff going on in that building right across the street.

Looked it up, Halcyon House is the building I'm referring to... Damn that street view brought back some memories! I used to go to the Twentieth St. Gym almost every morning.

[mhays25]

If it's 40 stories, why does the latest rendering still show 30-story buildings?

No architect participated in this. It's truly bizarre that this has been in the papers.

This still looks like a rendering from somewhere else edited by a teenager to look like it's for a block in Denver.