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Old 05-08-2018, 09:44 AM
 
Location: Colorado
4,003 posts, read 2,678,170 times
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My two cents....I don't see a 'crash' happening, unless, as noted, something happens on a worldwide scale.

I think Denver is more likely to level off, at some point. And I think what's going to help is, unlike in past 'boom or bust' eras, Denver's economy is more diversified than it used to be. So even if one field takes a hit, it's not going to cause as much damage as in years past.
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Old 05-08-2018, 09:44 AM
 
Location: Denver CO
24,204 posts, read 19,061,221 times
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I mostly agree about the 500K cut off EXCEPT that the cut off number keeps rising. It's not like there has been some wholesale bump in salaries across the board to reflect the increased cost of living/housing here, but there are still more higher paying jobs that are letting people buy into the higher side of the market - esp. if this is a move up house and they can take the last 4ish years worth of equity out of a starter home.

https://www.denverpost.com/2018/03/0...ge-home-price/

So I agree that the houses on the lower side of average are going to remain highly competitive and higher priced ones will likely see a little - not take a loss in value, but just flattening of the rate of appreciation. But that "lower side of average" number will remain competitive enough that multiple offer situations are going to keep driving that average up until supply comes a little closer to demand.
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Old 05-08-2018, 11:30 AM
 
Location: Just south of Denver since 1989
11,815 posts, read 34,303,497 times
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Basic Supply & Demand economics. Right now there is much more demand than supply.

There are 4647 properties in the attached single family & detached available for sale today in the MLS.

In order to have a balanced market with this population, we would need 18,000 properties for sale.

This will not happen for some time. It will happen.

When people tell me they want to buy but they will wait for another crash. I ask what would the cost of waiting be? Would we lose 10% of value? Would interest rates be 7 %or 11%?

Buy or not depends on your personal needs.

The last house I put under contract was $370 - 10k over no competing bids. It was Easter.
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Old 05-08-2018, 12:41 PM
 
Location: Just south of Denver since 1989
11,815 posts, read 34,303,497 times
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According to Gallup, "18% of all U.S. adults do not own a home and plan to buy one in the next five years. Meanwhile, 13% of U.S. adults own a home and plan to sell in the same time frame." Translation: The seller's market will continue.
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Old 05-08-2018, 12:42 PM
 
Location: Denver, CO
760 posts, read 876,319 times
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Another topic to consider, the Boomerang Millennial's:
https://www.curbed.com/2018/5/1/1730...ng-second-city

My prediction is that the Austin, Portland, Seattle, Denver cities of today will start to see a decline in population growth during the next recession. Weather, weed, and mountains are nice, but as Millennial's get older, they will wonder why they pay half a million for a tiny home in these cities, when they can go to their hometown and buy a home with a yard for 100K.

I'm not saying Denver is going to "crash", but I do believe we will see migration hit the brakes at some point. You also need to remember that the main driver for Denver's boom was it's affordability. The reason why Denver home prices barely had a dent during the last crash was because they were still affordable for the average person. I have yet to have anyone convince me that some of these home values will remain in the 800K plus range (like a Wash Park bungalow), when/if we have a recession.

You also need to worry about Generation Z. This group is about twice the size of the Boomer generation. As they graduate college, they too will start to seek out the next cool/cheap places to live. This generation will drive the trendiness and growth for the next decade. My prediction is that Detroit, Kansas City, St Louis, Louisville, Milwaukee, and really any Midwest city, will see major growth post 2020. By that time, Denver, Portland, Seattle, etc will be tapped out (in available land and trendiness).
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Old 05-08-2018, 03:00 PM
 
1,710 posts, read 1,453,641 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MN_Ski View Post
Another topic to consider, the Boomerang Millennial's:
https://www.curbed.com/2018/5/1/1730...ng-second-city

My prediction is that the Austin, Portland, Seattle, Denver cities of today will start to see a decline in population growth during the next recession. Weather, weed, and mountains are nice, but as Millennial's get older, they will wonder why they pay half a million for a tiny home in these cities, when they can go to their hometown and buy a home with a yard for 100K.

I'm not saying Denver is going to "crash", but I do believe we will see migration hit the brakes at some point. You also need to remember that the main driver for Denver's boom was it's affordability. The reason why Denver home prices barely had a dent during the last crash was because they were still affordable for the average person. I have yet to have anyone convince me that some of these home values will remain in the 800K plus range (like a Wash Park bungalow), when/if we have a recession.

You also need to worry about Generation Z. This group is about twice the size of the Boomer generation. As they graduate college, they too will start to seek out the next cool/cheap places to live. This generation will drive the trendiness and growth for the next decade. My prediction is that Detroit, Kansas City, St Louis, Louisville, Milwaukee, and really any Midwest city, will see major growth post 2020. By that time, Denver, Portland, Seattle, etc will be tapped out (in available land and trendiness).
I dont think there will be another crash. Those areas listed stayed strong and then grew. I bought in 13' and made $200k. Selling in a few months while my new home is built. For the past 30 years there has been mass migration away from the mid west to the sunbelt and west coast. People will move towards jobs. Im from Pittsburgh and yeah I could buy a castle for what I could buy here but I also couldn't find a job that pays what I make here either. Not to mention its not what I remember growing up when I visit. If you look at Nashville, great city but its now getting $$$$$. Same with TX cities too. Any place with a good economy is growing. We have friends that did what you said and moved back to Indiana. Yeah they have a bigger home but Indy sucks, theres an apple bees and fridays in their burb.....and the weather sucks. I know the husband took a $40k pay cut for it and is miserable and its now affecting their marriage. So I see the South and West staying strong. People will move away from the taxes/weather on the east coast and lack of opportunity from the mid west.
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Old 05-08-2018, 03:56 PM
 
Location: Berkeley Neighborhood, Denver, CO USA
17,678 posts, read 29,607,847 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MN_Ski View Post
..., weed...
Stop it.
You have no data supporting this silly hypothesis.
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Old 05-08-2018, 03:59 PM
 
Location: Berkeley Neighborhood, Denver, CO USA
17,678 posts, read 29,607,847 times
Reputation: 33227
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorthDenverGirl View Post
... homes in the $500,000 above are already starting to see a little leveling off...
Not according to DMAR.
"In the single-family home segment, there are more listings now available between $500,000 to $750,000 than all of the price ranges below $500,000 combined.

The year-to-date average sold price hit $517,395 for the single-family home market, up 11.2 percent from last year, with the median sold price at $439,828, up 9.96 percent."

https://www.dmarealtors.com/dmar-rea...-report-may-18
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Old 05-08-2018, 04:01 PM
 
Location: In The Thin Air
12,566 posts, read 10,558,348 times
Reputation: 9247
Quote:
Originally Posted by davebarnes View Post
Stop it.
You have no data supporting this silly hypothesis.
I agree.

People have moved here for the happy green weed but the percentage is not as "high" as some want to believe. I still have friends outside of Colorado insist that weed is the main reason for the housing boom here. It is not even close.
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Old 05-08-2018, 04:07 PM
 
1,710 posts, read 1,453,641 times
Reputation: 2205
Quote:
Originally Posted by davebarnes View Post
Not according to DMAR.
"In the single-family home segment, there are more listings now available between $500,000 to $750,000 than all of the price ranges below $500,000 combined.

The year-to-date average sold price hit $517,395 for the single-family home market, up 11.2 percent from last year, with the median sold price at $439,828, up 9.96 percent."

https://www.dmarealtors.com/dmar-rea...-report-may-18
$500k is basically the starting point for a lot of newer 2ksq/ft homes in just about any burb.....They dont last long.
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