Denver housing market crash? (rent, job market, buying)

[davebarnes]

The best time to buy in Denver will be about 6 months after the Yellowstone super volcano explodes.

[Chloe333]

Originally Posted by spets

Ive been in the Denver area for 3+ years now and I didn't buy a house when i first moved here, Now im looking around but i hear really bad news about the housing market in Denver. What do you think, is this going to last or are the prices going to drop in a year or so? If you're looking to sell ofcourse you're going to say its a great time to buy but i dont need the fluff...

I've looked into my crystal ball and think Denver will keep going on the upswing. I really do. It's got the mountains, recreation, ski towns, Boulder, Denver, and a nice live and let live vibe. Sadly, people will get priced out just like in places like SF and Seattle. I'm outta here though. The front range seems post apocolyptic or like a Mad Max world to me with the brown and dryness much of the year. I miss the trees.

[MountainEarth]

Of course nobody wants the bottom to drop out after they buy, but I also think people make a big mistake looking at a house purchase in terms of investment as opposed to a place to call home. Resale value only matters if you plan to sell. If you’re buying to stay put and establish a life, it doesn’t matter if the market drops. It only matters if you can afford the monthlies. If you can afford to stay put, no worries. Colorado is desireable, and over time the market will come back. As for buying, right now I’d be more concerned about rising interest rates than home price. As I said, when it comes down to it, it’s the monthlies (mortgage, taxes, insurance, utilities) that matter. Regardless of what prices do, if interest rates keep going up a lot of people will get priced out just by that.

[TCHP]

Originally Posted by SkyDog77

What are you smoking?? That would be 5% of the entire Colorado working population.

It’s 0.7% of ~3,000,000 or about 21,000 jobs.

Is that figure only those directly involved in cultivation and sales? There are additional ancillary companies who are benefiting from legalization without actually handling the wild wood weed, but I'm not sure how their numbers would add up nor if they are included in such calculations. Granted, they may not add a huge bump in employment and sales, but it does have a multipler effect on some level.

We have seen some periphery businesses spring up from legalization such as Boulder Lamp Inc who makes lighting systems for grows, Nexus Greenhouse systems and Urban Grow who makes growing systems, along with the companies who support them in the manufacturing of their products that they sell. The company I work for supplies the reflectors utilized by Boulder Lamp and they are spending six figures a year with us for just these parts. Even staffing, payroll, and legal consulting are part of the ripple effect of the industry. Here is an article in Westword; Colorado Dominates List of Top 150 Ancillary Cannabis Companies | Westword

These companies do support the industry through the country, not just Colorado, but we did get a jump on the support markets as well.

[Timmyy]

Originally Posted by MN_Ski

Hmmm, I wonder

Yeah that's my bad, the stat is for the country.

So I'm actually curious, how many of those who do not believe people move here for MJ actually participate or go out with 20 somethings? I've talked to dozens of bud-tenders over the years, they do in fact move here for the MJ jobs. If fact, the women I talked to 2 weeks ago moved here from Florida and is working at a dispensary and a coffee shop part time. Last month, a college friend from Chicago posted about how she could move to Denver. 5 of her friends commented saying how easy it was to find bud tender jobs, and recommended apartments with roomates You can get by making $12 and hour with roommates. People are very very determined to break into the industry. There are also those who come for the MJ tourism, realize it's a cool place to live, and then end up moving here.

Do you guys ever read Reddit? The demographic is mainly millennial's. Do a quick search about "moving to Denver" threads, and you will find hundreds of people moving here to MJ jobs....sure, they probably go broke and move back home eventually, but they are there. I think people are really underestimating just how influential legalization was for millennial's. And if you are not part of the MJ demographic, you will never see it.

Another demographic that people forget about are those on disability, who want to use MJ for pain, but want to do it legally (like my neighbor).

I like this topic, it's fun, but feel free to lock at anytime.

My brother in law is a millennial and he hangs out with a pretty big group of millennials. He is an artist and has his art displayed in one of the exhibits in the Santa Fe art district. I say that because he has a huge circle of friends and colleagues around his age. He knows a lot of people who use pot but he doesn't know anybody that moved here to use it or work in the industry. I know it is anecdotal but that is all I have. I have no doubt there are people moving here for it but it is only a tiny reason why most people are moving here. I could use my generation as an example. The majority of people I know moving here around my age are doing it for jobs, weather and a just because it is a great place to live. The people that come here for pot tourism and then move here can be lumped in with the people that moved here blindly for pot before visiting.

I would love for the pot industry to be a bigger piece of the economy here but the reality is that it isn't. It does have a tiny effect on the housing industry but not nearly as much as some might believe. When I say housing I mean homes for sale. The rental market is finally starting to loosen up a bit because the inventory is rising.

[Jobster]

Ultimately, it depends on whether or not anyone wants to purchase USD. If they do, sure, housing prices will remain stable a little longer. If not, there will be blood and tears.

It's hard to predict. Goldman Sachs recently got back into the subprime loan business. I'm not sure how to interpret that.

[Katarina Witt]

Originally Posted by MN_Ski

Hmmm, I wonder

Yeah that's my bad, the stat is for the country.

So I'm actually curious, how many of those who do not believe people move here for MJ actually participate or go out with 20 somethings? I've talked to dozens of bud-tenders over the years, they do in fact move here for the MJ jobs. If fact, the women I talked to 2 weeks ago moved here from Florida and is working at a dispensary and a coffee shop part time. Last month, a college friend from Chicago posted about how she could move to Denver. 5 of her friends commented saying how easy it was to find bud tender jobs, and recommended apartments with roomates You can get by making $12 and hour with roommates. People are very very determined to break into the industry. There are also those who come for the MJ tourism, realize it's a cool place to live, and then end up moving here.

Do you guys ever read Reddit? The demographic is mainly millennial's. Do a quick search about "moving to Denver" threads, and you will find hundreds of people moving here to MJ jobs....sure, they probably go broke and move back home eventually, but they are there. I think people are really underestimating just how influential legalization was for millennial's. And if you are not part of the MJ demographic, you will never see it.

Another demographic that people forget about are those on disability, who want to use MJ for pain, but want to do it legally (like my neighbor).

I like this topic, it's fun, but feel free to lock at anytime.

I have millennial kids, both in their early 30s now, both were in 20s when legalization passed. They have spouses and friends; my friends have millennial age kids with partners, other friends. A few of these kids work in MJ, most were born here though.

[guyatwork37]

Originally Posted by Jobster

Ultimately, it depends on whether or not anyone wants to purchase USD. If they do, sure, housing prices will remain stable a little longer. If not, there will be blood and tears.

It's hard to predict. Goldman Sachs recently got back into the subprime loan business. I'm not sure how to interpret that.

It means we've learned nothing and that larger lenders know they will be bailed out so they have no incentive to actually care about long term as the top execs will be paid out regardless.

[Jobster]

Originally Posted by guyatwork37

It means we've learned nothing and that larger lenders know they will be bailed out so they have no incentive to actually care about long term as the top execs will be paid out regardless.

You got it. Same thought I had, except I think it's intentional, so they've actually learned a lot.

It's not like you and I have any say over anything.

[Phil P]

It sounds like nation wide there continues to be a housing shortage with current projects like 30% below what would be necessary to fit the demand for housing. I don't think we'll hit an oversupply any time soon. I think from now forward, Denver will closer match what happens nationally and the divergence of rapid price growth will end, but we won't have some little crash here while the rest of the nation is fine. The Fed raising rates make it even more unaffordable, but don't seem to be denting price increases too much.

I don't know. Denver's already too unaffordable for me, I'm not going to buy a subpar home and rents aren't too bad, so I'll keep renting. I'll probably end up moving back to the Springs or somewhere else to settle down, but I have no idea when that will be. Whenever the cards line up.