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Let me first say that I have, for the last several decades, believed that city population counts have grown less and less meaningful in the “Metropolitan” era. For example, Miami is a city of less than 400,000 people, but it’s a metropolitan area of over 5 million people. Atlanta is city of 525,000 people, but it’s a metropolitan area of over 5 million people. Indianapolis is a city of 830,000 thousand people, but it’s a metropolitan area of slightly less than 2 million people. So comparing the city of Indianapolis to the City of Miami really makes little sense for anything other than politics. City numbers are really archaic relics from a period of time when most of the non-rural population was urban, like in 1950 and before, and not suburban as it is today.
That having been said, what do people think the population will be for the city of Detroit when it is released this week? The estimate of 901,000 was based upon an adjustment after a suit was filed, but a similar adjustment will not be reflected in this census. Thus, without that adjustment the city will have less people.
Historically Detroit’s population loss has been linked primarily to white flight. Detroit’s black population continued to grow up until 2003 and peaked at around 790,000 people. If Detroit lost 100,000 thousand blacks since 2003, which is possible, that leaves 690,000 blacks in the city. That would be about a 12% population loss. However, let’s assume a 150,000 drop in 7 years as the worst case scenario, which would put the city at 640k African Americans.
In regards to the Hispanic population, one has to figure that it has grown from 50,000 to at least 60, 0000, which is a muted growth rate compared to Hispanic growth in the nation as a whole. Hispanic or Latino numbers could actually be higher, but again, if many are illegal they will not likely participate in the count; thus, I would think that there are 60,000 Hispanics in the city.
In regards to the white population……I am not sure if it has grown or declined. There were over 100k whites in the city during the last count and many whites have moved into new lofts and apartments in the core, as well as Corktown. Still, I will say that the white population declined to about 80,000 people, despite the new residents moving to the core.
That brings the running total thus far to about 780,000 people. I also assume that there may be 20,000 other living in the city, including people of Arab and Asian background, as well as other. That brings the total to about 800,000. Anything less than 800,000, in my opinion, is an undercount. My hypothesis is that Detroit will be around 825,000 people, if everyone is counted.
Michigan only lost 50,000 people overall, despite the horrendous economy and people predicting that the state would lose much more. I was just back in Detroit this past week and whole neighborhoods that I had not visited in a while have been gutted. However, I would bet that the household size in Detroit has risen despite the number of dwellings declining as more people are forced to move back in with parents and other relatives who are in a more stable condition.
My money is on less than 800,000 counting all LIVING people regardless of race.
I don't know what that is supposed to mean Is that supposed to reflect some higher moral ground by not taking advantage of Demographic patterns and trends to come to a conclusion?
If the totals comes in at less than 800,000.....then Its most definately an undercount in my opinion. I simply have a hard time accepting or seeing the evidence that over 150,000 blacks left the city in the past 7 years or that the Hispanic population in SW Detroit has not grown or that there are now less than 80,000 whites living in the city.
Now, I do note that the number of African Americans living in the suburbs has increased substantially in the last 10 years. However, I do not see evidence of 150,000 migration to the suburbs. Sure, a lot of blacks moved out of state when things got really bad in Michigan before they got really bad in the rest of the nation. However, around 2008 things became really bad in places like Gerogia and North Carolina, traditional magnet areas for blacks leaving Detroit.
Granted, Chicago did lose 200,000 blacks in the last 10 years and Cleveland lost a significant number of blacks as well. The Midwest has been the most segregated region for several decades and now that suburbs are loosing up more blacks feel comfortable moving to the suburbs and hence there is a level of exodus from the cities, for blacks, that is higher in the Midwest than other parts of the nation that were already less segregated.
Finally, in the past there was a massive push to get out the count but Mayor Bing made no effort to replicate past efforts to get everyone counted. So......I don't doubt that the numbers will come it at under 800,000, however, I do doubt the accuracy of such figures. Based upon the break down in my original thread.
Cleveland lost 17 percent of its population. If the same happens to Detroit, they'll be at around 790,000. I have a tough time believing Detroit fared much better than Cleveland, but we'll see.
Wow.....I was just doing a little research and found that Altanta's population had been estimated at 540,000 in 2009, but the 2010 census only counted 420,000 people It also says that the cities black population declined by 12%. It appears that across the country there are significant declines in the black population of cities. Chicago is said to have lost 200,000 blacks.
I don't know......but I am growing less confident in the accuracy of the enumeration process. The shifts in black population are just too dramatic for me to believe.
Personally, I'm not concerned about Detroit's overall population. Census counts are notoriously inaccurate anyways. I'm more interested in knowing the location of the population and the population density of the city's core neighborhoods.
In my opinion, Detroit may shrink to something like 500k in the coming decades, and that's just fine, so long as the population is building up in core areas. The location of population is far more important than the actual number. Who really cares if Jacksonville, Florida's population exceeds Detroit's? Jacksonville is like 500 square miles. Not only is Jacksonville probably not sustainable, but a lot of people are not going to find it desirable. The cities that will survive the test of time are those that can actually function as cities, just like the ancient cities of Europe. They will be dense, walkable, loaded with amenities and entertainment, be convenient, and provide people with a high quality of life.
I know that middle-class blacks have been leaving Detroit for the suburbs, but I hope they reconsider and relocate to places like Midtown, Woodbridge, and to vibrant neighborhoods on Detroit's Eastside along Jefferson. Those are Detroit's neighborhoods of the future. Other areas may to continue to decline unless they have superior housing or are located in a key area.
Bing needs to build up neighborhoods along main thoroughfares and those in close proximity to employment centers and institutions. Concentrate the delivery of services on these areas and run mass transit down the middle. Develop a true live/work/play environment with well-kept public spaces, mixed-use buildings, and a variety of residential options. Leave the outer areas alone, as that land can serve creative uses like urban agriculture, business incubators, and art projects. Expansions beyond the initial core should be limited and done slowly and sensibly. Push for infill and redevelopment of property within the core until it is absolutely necessary to expand, or it becomes necessary to lower property values if they climb too high. If Bing is able to accomplish this, a smaller, leaner, yet more sophisticated Detroit will emerge and be the envy of the region.
Detroit can become a very desirable place to live and do business. It needs some remaking and some critical infrastructure. It needs to shed dead weight and outmoded ideas and stereotypes. It needs to improve its reality and its image. Most importantly, Detroit needs leaders with a vision who have the political will to push through the anti-progress status quo that runs rampant throughout the region. To hell with the Detroiters who have nothing to offer but complaints. To hell with the suburbanites who couldn't think their way out of a paper bag. To hell with the self-serving politicos and the talking heads who bilk the system and never offer a helping hand. To hell with the naysayers, negative nancies, and do-nothings who get in the way. We have a great foundation to build on, so let's start building.
Last edited by ForStarters; 03-22-2011 at 12:28 AM..
Personally, I'm not concerned about Detroit's overall population. Census counts are notoriously inaccurate anyways. I'm more interested in knowing the location of the population and the population density of the city's core neighborhoods.
In my opinion, Detroit may shrink to something like 500k in the coming decades, and that's just fine, so long as the population is building up in core areas. The location of population is far more important than the actual number. Who really cares if Jacksonville, Florida's population exceeds Detroit's? Jacksonville is like 500 square miles. Not only is Jacksonville probably not sustainable, but a lot of people are not going to find it desirable. The cities that will survive the test of time are those that can actually function as cities, just like the ancient cities of Europe. They will be dense, walkable, loaded with amenities and entertainment, be convenient, and provide people with a high quality of life.
I know that middle-class blacks have been leaving Detroit for the suburbs, but I hope they reconsider and relocate to places like Midtown, Woodbridge, and to vibrant neighborhoods on Detroit's Eastside along Jefferson. Those are Detroit's neighborhoods of the future. Other areas may to continue to decline unless they have superior housing or are located in a key area.
Bing needs to build up neighborhoods along main thoroughfares and those in close proximity to employment centers and institutions. Concentrate the delivery of services on these areas and run mass transit down the middle. Develop a true live/work/play environment with well-kept public spaces, mixed-use buildings, and a variety of residential options. Leave the outer areas alone, as that land can serve creative uses like urban agriculture, business incubators, and art projects. Expansions beyond the initial core should be limited and done slowly and sensibly. Push for infill and redevelopment of property within the core until it is absolutely necessary to expand, or it becomes necessary to lower property values if they climb too high. If Bing is able to accomplish this, a smaller, leaner, yet more sophisticated Detroit will emerge and be the envy of the region.
Detroit can become a very desirable place to live and do business. It needs some remaking and some critical infrastructure. It needs to shed dead weight and outmoded ideas and stereotypes. It needs to improve its reality and its image. Most importantly, Detroit needs leaders with a vision who have the political will to push through the anti-progress status quo that runs rampant throughout the region. To hell with the Detroiters who have nothing to offer but complaints. To hell with the suburbanites who couldn't think their way out of a paper bag. To hell with the self-serving politicos and the talking heads who bilk the system and never offer a helping hand. To hell with the naysayers, negative nancies, and do-nothings who get in the way. We have a great foundation to build on, so let's start building.
All Good points
I would add that Bing needs to focus on cleaning up the gateway, which is the area around the Ford Freeway on the West side. When visitors arrive at DTW and head Downtown, 94 is the gateway and what they see. There are a lot of abandoned eyesores littering the view of the city and that becomes peoples impression of the city and they take that impression back and spread it.
I see no way that Detroits population drops to 500,000 unless the auto industry collapses. I think lack leading standards allowed many people to move from Detroit into homes in the suburbs. I think that the ease of getting into a modest home drove blacks to move to the burbs all across the country. Looking at national data it is clear that something happened on a national scale which led to a mass exodus of blacks from cities like never before. The only thing that could have been is the housing boom which allowed people to buy homes that they really could not afford. That era is over and I do not see any massive new housing construction going on that will create the vacancies which will allow blacks to continue to move to the suburbs.
The trend of the past was exurbination and sprawl. Low interest rates and the housing boom allowed developers to build further and further away from the urban center. Since the population of the region was not really increasing, the shift of population to the exurbs created opportunities for people in the core to move to inner ring suburbs that people were moving from. Hence, without the growth of the exurbs there will not be as much opportunity to move to inner ring suburbs as there used to be. Besides, when gas starts hitting 5 and 6 dollars a gallon in a few years.......people are not going to want to be living way out and as Detroit start to get a REAL mass transit system the city will repopulate quickly.
What ever the census numbers come out today......I think detroit may bottom out about 50,000 people below that number and start to increase going forward.
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Is that supposed to reflect some higher moral ground by not taking advantage of Demographic patterns and trends to come to a conclusion? 
It also says that the cities black population declined by 12%. It appears that across the country there are significant declines in the black population of cities. Chicago is said to have lost 200,000 blacks. 
