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Old 07-27-2015, 09:59 AM
 
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The construction is easily seen on the Parade of Homes site, as well as along 10 mi Rd. They are getting there, but certainly not there yet.
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Old 07-28-2015, 10:01 PM
 
Location: Centre Wellington, ON
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I have to agree with mgkeith, declining enrolment doesn't necessarily mean much.

I wouldn't be surprised if in the 80s and 90s some Detroit neighbourhoods were seeing their under 18 population increase while at the same time white flight was in full swing.

Only about 50% of households have kids. However, most SFH home buyers have children or are planning to have children, especially if we're talking about the 4+ bedroom homes. Not much of a point getting such a big home if you're empty nesters. That means anywhere where big SFHs are being built can expect an increase in school enrolment.

The 2nd fastest growing census tract in metro Detroit is in Canton (Cherry Hill) and has 61.2% of households with children under 18 (technically had - at the 2010 census). The fastest growing census tract is also in that area but seems to have a bit more townhouses and a bit fewer households with children. Meanwhile only 32.7% of Metro Detroit households have children under 18.

However, people don't always move out when their kids leave the house. Even though they don't need as much space together, people come to be attached to their homes and community, so a lot of the empty nesters stay put. In a way that's a good thing, it means they like where they live, but it also means that the number of families with children is expected to decrease even if schools remain the same quality.

So for Farmington Hill, only 28.9% of households have children under 18.

What about Birmingham? Birmingham has been built out for a long time, so it's gone through the "kids are moving out but parents are staying put" phase several decades ago. Basically the situation in that regard has stabilized, so you'd expect school enrolment to be more or less stable, maybe slightly increasing because there's some new high end home rebuilds where the buyers are likely to have children. It has 29.8% of households with children under 18, barely more than Farmington Hills. It used to be about 50-55% (hard to say exactly, census categories in those days were a bit different) in 1960.

% of households with children under 18-

Novi census tracts with no population growth: 32.0%
Novi census tracts with population growth*: 36.7%
South Lyon: 34.6% (both South Lyon census tracts grew, but more slowly than those in Novi)
Northville (town and township) census tracts with no population growth: 26.2%
Northville census tracts with population growth: 36.5%


*obviously not everything in these is new homes, it's not as new as that census tract in Canton, but there are some new homes.

And BTW yes Novi and South Lyon have good schools, but that doesn't mean Farmington Hill's aren't also good.
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Old 07-28-2015, 10:51 PM
chh
 
Location: West Michigan
420 posts, read 647,625 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by memph View Post
I have to agree with mgkeith, declining enrolment doesn't necessarily mean much.

I wouldn't be surprised if in the 80s and 90s some Detroit neighbourhoods were seeing their under 18 population increase while at the same time white flight was in full swing.

Only about 50% of households have kids. However, most SFH home buyers have children or are planning to have children, especially if we're talking about the 4+ bedroom homes. Not much of a point getting such a big home if you're empty nesters. That means anywhere where big SFHs are being built can expect an increase in school enrolment.

The 2nd fastest growing census tract in metro Detroit is in Canton (Cherry Hill) and has 61.2% of households with children under 18 (technically had - at the 2010 census). The fastest growing census tract is also in that area but seems to have a bit more townhouses and a bit fewer households with children. Meanwhile only 32.7% of Metro Detroit households have children under 18.

However, people don't always move out when their kids leave the house. Even though they don't need as much space together, people come to be attached to their homes and community, so a lot of the empty nesters stay put. In a way that's a good thing, it means they like where they live, but it also means that the number of families with children is expected to decrease even if schools remain the same quality.

So for Farmington Hill, only 28.9% of households have children under 18.

What about Birmingham? Birmingham has been built out for a long time, so it's gone through the "kids are moving out but parents are staying put" phase several decades ago. Basically the situation in that regard has stabilized, so you'd expect school enrolment to be more or less stable, maybe slightly increasing because there's some new high end home rebuilds where the buyers are likely to have children. It has 29.8% of households with children under 18, barely more than Farmington Hills. It used to be about 50-55% (hard to say exactly, census categories in those days were a bit different) in 1960.

% of households with children under 18-

Novi census tracts with no population growth: 32.0%
Novi census tracts with population growth*: 36.7%
South Lyon: 34.6% (both South Lyon census tracts grew, but more slowly than those in Novi)
Northville (town and township) census tracts with no population growth: 26.2%
Northville census tracts with population growth: 36.5%


*obviously not everything in these is new homes, it's not as new as that census tract in Canton, but there are some new homes.

And BTW yes Novi and South Lyon have good schools, but that doesn't mean Farmington Hill's aren't also good.
Where did you find this data? Not challenging you since that's what people seem to be doing in this thread, I'm just curious.
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Old 07-29-2015, 12:03 AM
 
Location: Centre Wellington, ON
5,683 posts, read 5,930,532 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chh View Post
Where did you find this data? Not challenging you since that's what people seem to be doing in this thread, I'm just curious.
From socialexplorer.com - I use a lot of the data on there.
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Old 07-29-2015, 10:46 AM
chh
 
Location: West Michigan
420 posts, read 647,625 times
Reputation: 371
Quote:
Originally Posted by memph View Post
From socialexplorer.com - I use a lot of the data on there.
Wow, this is awesome. I love data, how could I not have known about this sooner?
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Old 07-29-2015, 03:49 PM
 
2,210 posts, read 3,468,871 times
Reputation: 2240
Quote:
Originally Posted by memph View Post
I have to agree with mgkeith, declining enrolment doesn't necessarily mean much.

I wouldn't be surprised if in the 80s and 90s some Detroit neighbourhoods were seeing their under 18 population increase while at the same time white flight was in full swing.

Only about 50% of households have kids. However, most SFH home buyers have children or are planning to have children, especially if we're talking about the 4+ bedroom homes. Not much of a point getting such a big home if you're empty nesters. That means anywhere where big SFHs are being built can expect an increase in school enrolment.

The 2nd fastest growing census tract in metro Detroit is in Canton (Cherry Hill) and has 61.2% of households with children under 18 (technically had - at the 2010 census). The fastest growing census tract is also in that area but seems to have a bit more townhouses and a bit fewer households with children. Meanwhile only 32.7% of Metro Detroit households have children under 18.

However, people don't always move out when their kids leave the house. Even though they don't need as much space together, people come to be attached to their homes and community, so a lot of the empty nesters stay put. In a way that's a good thing, it means they like where they live, but it also means that the number of families with children is expected to decrease even if schools remain the same quality.

So for Farmington Hill, only 28.9% of households have children under 18.

What about Birmingham? Birmingham has been built out for a long time, so it's gone through the "kids are moving out but parents are staying put" phase several decades ago. Basically the situation in that regard has stabilized, so you'd expect school enrolment to be more or less stable, maybe slightly increasing because there's some new high end home rebuilds where the buyers are likely to have children. It has 29.8% of households with children under 18, barely more than Farmington Hills. It used to be about 50-55% (hard to say exactly, census categories in those days were a bit different) in 1960.

% of households with children under 18-

Novi census tracts with no population growth: 32.0%
Novi census tracts with population growth*: 36.7%
South Lyon: 34.6% (both South Lyon census tracts grew, but more slowly than those in Novi)
Northville (town and township) census tracts with no population growth: 26.2%
Northville census tracts with population growth: 36.5%


*obviously not everything in these is new homes, it's not as new as that census tract in Canton, but there are some new homes.

And BTW yes Novi and South Lyon have good schools, but that doesn't mean Farmington Hill's aren't also good.
Interesting theory that hinges on how long people are staying in their homes. I could just as easily interpret the 28.9% of households with children meaning that families are passing on Farmington Hills.
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Old 07-29-2015, 06:31 PM
 
Location: Farmington Hills, SE Michigan
10 posts, read 10,092 times
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Default It's Property Values That Define Decline...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arthur Digby Sellers View Post
Interesting theory that hinges on how long people are staying in their homes. I could just as easily interpret the 28.9% of households with children meaning that families are passing on Farmington Hills.
That's pretty arguable given the rate of housing value increase in FH. Let's compare to the mature sub. Birmingham:

According to Zillow, the nadir for home prices (median sale price) in FH occurred in July 2011 with value of $139K. In May of 2015 the median sale price was $215K, for an overall increase of 54.5%, a rate of roughly 13% per year.

Birmingham hits its minimum in Sept. 2009 at $202K. Median prices have whipsawed of late, but a good, even number to use would be the April 2015 median sale price of $391K. This is an overall increase of 93.6% for an annual rate of about 16%.

Now, does the 16% v. 13% annual appreciation rate mean that nobody wants to live in FH but Birmingham is hot? I don't see it that way at all. The fact that BOTH communities have growing property values, about equally percentage-wise, means to me that both cities are desirable.

Why is FH closing schools? Lots of empty-nesters and not a lot of places for younger people with kids, or planning to have them, to move to, means that the school capacity has to be reset to match demand. As was pointed out earlier, Birmingham went through the "New sub, new families live there, schools boom, kids graduate and leave, old families linger on" phase decades ago. It's all new for FH.

Desirability is measured mostly be home values and an appreciation of rate of 13%/year is excellent. No way is FH nearly in decline.
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Old 08-02-2015, 11:09 AM
 
10,275 posts, read 10,234,666 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by memph View Post
I have to agree with mgkeith, declining enrolment doesn't necessarily mean much.
It does mean a lot if the declining population happens to be wealthier and the entering population happens to be poorer. That's what's happening in FH. Also, FH has white flight, with many schools going from almost entirely white to around half black in a relatively short period of time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by memph View Post
I wouldn't be surprised if in the 80s and 90s some Detroit neighbourhoods were seeing their under 18 pop
ulation increase while at the same time white flight was in full swing.
I would be very surprised if that were true, and it has nothing to do with what we're talking about. We aren't talking about school-age children in a
community; we're talking about where parents choose to enroll their kids in an era of school choice.

DPS has had non-stop declining enrollment since the 1950's, so your supposition is wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by memph View Post
What about Birmingham? Birmingham has been built out for a long time, so it's gone through the "kids are moving out but parents are staying put" phase several decades ago. Basically the situation in that regard has stabilized, so you'd expect school enrolment to be more or less stable, maybe slightly increasing because there's some new high end home rebuilds where the buyers are likely to have children. It has 29.8% of households with children under 18, barely more than Farmington Hills. It used to be about 50-55% (hard to say exactly, census categories in those days were a bit different) in 1960.
Again, we aren't talking school age children, we're talking district enrollment. Birmingham schools are not school of choice, Farmington is. You can't put your kids in Birmingham schools unless you live there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by memph View Post
Novi census tracts with no population growth: 32.0%
Novi census tracts with population growth*: 36.7%
South Lyon: 34.6% (both South Lyon census tracts grew, but more slowly than those in Novi)
Northville (town and township) census tracts with no population growth: 26.2%
Northville census tracts with population growth: 36.5%
This is all silly. South Lyon schools are 90% not City of South Lyon, which is a small, semi-rural town that isn't growing. When people say South Lyon is fast growing they mean Lyon Twp. which is the fastest growing community in the state, and has the most housing permits in the state.

And % of census tracts with population growth has nothing to do with school age population, district population or really anything (as Census tracts aren't equivalent in population; you could have 1 person in a tract, or tens of thousands). A city could have 90% declining census tracts and be fastest growing in the state or 90% growing census tracts and be fastest declining in the state.

And again, we are in an era of school choice. School-age population in a community is irrelevant unless you don't have school choice.
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Old 08-02-2015, 01:07 PM
 
Location: Michigan
4,647 posts, read 8,541,445 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NOLA101 View Post
Again, we aren't talking school age children, we're talking district enrollment. Birmingham schools are not school of choice, Farmington is. You can't put your kids in Birmingham schools unless you live there.
Birmingham is school of choice, however, they are very strict on who is eligible (much like many of the other affluent suburbs).
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Old 08-02-2015, 09:16 PM
 
Location: Centre Wellington, ON
5,683 posts, read 5,930,532 times
Reputation: 3064
Quote:
Originally Posted by NOLA101 View Post
It does mean a lot if the declining population happens to be wealthier and the entering population happens to be poorer. That's what's happening in FH. Also, FH has white flight, with many schools going from almost entirely white to around half black in a relatively short period of time.
Any evidence of the fact that the people moving in are less wealthy than the ones moving out?

As for "white flight" - it's true that the white population is declining but that doesn't mean it's fleeing. Metro Detroit is getting more diverse and the suburbs are getting diverse even faster due to blacks moving out of the city. The suburbs have gone from 87.9% non-hispanic white in 2000 to 80.1% non-hispanic white in 2010. Farmington Hills changed a bit faster but that's not necessarily a big deal.

Lets say that people move on average every 10 years - which I think is a conservative estimate - that means half the population moves out of their house in any given city in a 10 year period. If so, then for Farmington Hills, all you'd need is for 44% of the people who move in to be non-white for it to go from 82.95% to 69.70% white. To me true white flight would be if the whites start to move out at a higher rate than usual, rather than just the new residents being less white. Considering Farmington Hills is right next to Southfield and relatively close to Redford, NW Detroit, Oak Park... it's not too surprising that a lot of the people moving in are black.


Quote:
Originally Posted by NOLA101 View Post
I would be very surprised if that were true, and it has nothing to do with what we're talking about. We aren't talking about school-age children in a
community; we're talking about where parents choose to enroll their kids in an era of school choice.

DPS has had non-stop declining enrollment since the 1950's, so your supposition is wrong.
Areas of Detroit that rapidly transitioned from white to black (whether due to "white flight" or "black dominated influx") typically saw their populations increase at least initially since blacks tend to have more children. I suspect the schools in Detroit that were in neighbourhoods that were predominantly white and seeing an increase in empty nesters, or where the whites already left and were already overwhelmingly black saw their enrolments drop but I'd be interested in what was happening in the schools in neighbourhoods that were transitioning from white to black.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NOLA101 View Post
Again, we aren't talking school age children, we're talking district enrollment. Birmingham schools are not school of choice, Farmington is. You can't put your kids in Birmingham schools unless you live there.
True, schools of choice means local demographics aren't the only things that matter, but still, I suspect that in an average to slightly above average school district, a lot of the students will be local so local demographics would be a relatively significant factor.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NOLA101 View Post
This is all silly. South Lyon schools are 90% not City of South Lyon, which is a small, semi-rural town that isn't growing. When people say South Lyon is fast growing they mean Lyon Twp. which is the fastest growing community in the state, and has the most housing permits in the state.

And % of census tracts with population growth has nothing to do with school age population, district population or really anything (as Census tracts aren't equivalent in population; you could have 1 person in a tract, or tens of thousands). A city could have 90% declining census tracts and be fastest growing in the state or 90% growing census tracts and be fastest declining in the state.

And again, we are in an era of school choice. School-age population in a community is irrelevant unless you don't have school choice.
All I was trying to show is that areas that are growing (new homes) tend to have more kids than areas that aren't (stable/built out) even within those communities that were listed as desirable growing suburbs.

Lyon Township btw has 39.8% of households with kids.
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