Which premier town is on the downfall? (Detroit, Ann Arbor: house, employment)

[DTWflyer]

Some spots that see to be an open question mark over the next decade:

1) West Bloomfield: Essentially built-out except for massive custom mansions and waterfront teardowns, the housing stock is starting to show its age in areas. Its in a transition and still good overall, but its going to face the same issues that older communities faced with tax dollars/tax base, aging infrastructure, and aging housing stock. While attractive for foreigners and people moving up from places like Southfield, its questionable it its going to be attractive to the millenial set for a place to raise families versus places that have more sense of community.

2) Royal Oak: While not necessarily decline, Royal Oak as a city is doing very well and will continue to do so, downtown Royal Oak is arguably on the decline until they get their act together (somewhat eluded to above). Real estate values continue to climb and there are record number of tear-down reconstruction homes in Royal Oak. Many 400-500k houses going in throughout all parts of Royal Oak. Schools are going to be looking up as more families look to raise their children in Royal Oak and have been priced out of Birmingham. Downtown Royal Oak is changing though and the city needs to get its act together. As downtown Royal Oak was the places for 20-somethings to hang out and go to the bars for much of the past 20 years, downtown/Midtown Detroit is taking over as the new hotspot for them to hang-out but also for attracting new merchants and businesses. They need to get a better plan in place for downtown Royal Oak, and make it more appealing for families with children who are more representative of the people living in most parts of Royal Oak.

3) Bloomfield Hills: Same not necessarily decline, but when the average age of residents in their mid-60s+, who exactly is going to buy (and maintain) all these massive homes in the generations going forward? Not decline per say, but question mark on the pool of potential buyers 10 years from now. It seems many of these people of younger generations have gravitated toward newer massive homes in Oakland Township or Northville areas.

4) Waterford: While not exactly top-tier, it seems more sleezy and blue-collar/low-collar than ever. This is the poster child for decline of the middle class and good-paying UAW jobs and its showing its wear. Its an area that is close to nothing and was historically basically a bedroom community for Pontiac.

5) Clinton Township: Seems this area has been passed over by the growth in parts more north in Macomb County.

[734accountant]

I don't see Royal Oak declining what-so-ever. Maturing would be a better characterization. If they can build up the school district it will become a less pretentious Birmingham — maybe even a smaller version of Ann Arbor.

[DTWflyer]

That is a good way to identify Royal Oak. The residential areas are maturing and doing well. Royal Oak schools are very good but that often gets overlooking because its not "top 10" in the state caliber.

Downtown Royal Oak is facing an identify problem and needs to mature along with the rest of the community, its been too one-dimensional and facing issues now with the rising rents that have crowded out much of the start-up retail/business community.

[highlanderfil]

One thing I've noticed about West Bloomfield (particularly the Gateway 14 mile/Northwestern Hwy area) is the fact that the saturation point for businesses moving into the area seems to have been reached. The Staples is still vacant, same as the K-Mart (not counting the seasonal Halloween store) and the small buildings on the corner, near the Hampton, continue to be just as vacant as the day they were built. Stein Mart moved into where DSW was, but the new DSW which is now, technically, in Farmington Hills, didn't create a new entity - just moved down the road. Shame.

[highlanderfil]

Originally Posted by 734accountant

I don't see Royal Oak declining what-so-ever. Maturing would be a better characterization. If they can build up the school district it will become a less pretentious Birmingham — maybe even a smaller version of Ann Arbor.

Then you aren't looking closely enough. Empty storefronts are a sign of decline, not maturity.

[734accountant]

I don't see anything to support Royal Oak schools being "very good". Above average for the state, yes, but the state has 500-plus crummy districts. The high school is mediocre, the elementary schools have a +0.9 grade level on this NYT chart, which is solid: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...-compares.html

Ann Arbor +1.8
Northville +1.7
Birmingham +2.1
Brighton +1.0
South Lyon +1.5

[DTWflyer]

Not everyone can afford (or desires) to live in a "top 10" in the state school district. Royal Oak Schools are very good in comparison to many areas in the state and provide a solid education that with proper parenting, will prepare a child to live a successful live.

I was not saying Royal Oak schools are as good as Birmingham, Ann Arbor, Rochester, Northville, but they are still well above average for most areas of the state.

The reality with Royal Oak, is the same exact house will cost $100k more if its north of 14 Mile in Birmingham versus south of 14 Mile in Royal Oak. That is not an insignificant matter in where people choose to live. Many middle class to upper-middle class families are priced out of "top 10" school districts.

[usroute10]

Originally Posted by DTWflyer

2) Royal Oak: While not necessarily decline, Royal Oak as a city is doing very well and will continue to do so, downtown Royal Oak is arguably on the decline until they get their act together (somewhat eluded to above). Real estate values continue to climb and there are record number of tear-down reconstruction homes in Royal Oak. Many 400-500k houses going in throughout all parts of Royal Oak. Schools are going to be looking up as more families look to raise their children in Royal Oak and have been priced out of Birmingham. Downtown Royal Oak is changing though and the city needs to get its act together. As downtown Royal Oak was the places for 20-somethings to hang out and go to the bars for much of the past 20 years, downtown/Midtown Detroit is taking over as the new hotspot for them to hang-out but also for attracting new merchants and businesses. They need to get a better plan in place for downtown Royal Oak, and make it more appealing for families with children who are more representative of the people living in most parts of Royal Oak.

Downtown Royal Oak is not on the decline. It is packed everyday. Even bustling commercial districts are going to have a few vacant storefronts, because a lot of businesses shut down for a variety of reasons.

Downtown Royal Oak is still the preferred center of nightlife in the Detroit area from what I see. It has more pedestrian activity than downtown/midtown except for the times when professional sports games are being played. Downtown and Midtown are too far from where the vast majority of 20 and 30-year old professionals live. They still live in the suburbs and Royal Oak is closer to go to dinner or a bar than Detroit.

I nominate Canton as the next in decline. What is to prevent Canton from becoming like Livonia and Farmington Hills?

[highlanderfil]

Originally Posted by usroute10

I nominate Canton as the next in decline. What is to prevent Canton from becoming like Livonia and Farmington Hills?

A total lack of evidence that said decline is impending and enough big-box stores to ensure it continues to thrive for years to come.

[brodie734]

I think Royal Oak has undergone a cultural change and has lost all of it's hipseter/artsy/cool cred to Ferndale and Detroit and now has a very fratty vibe. That is maybe not a harbinger of DOOOOOM, but being "cool" was a lot of what RO had going for it.