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"They're already turning sketchy" is an opinion, not fact. Is crime getting comparatively worse there? Dated housing stock - do you have concrete evidence to suggest that housing stock in that area is aging faster than Canton, Plymouth, Northville, Novi, Walled Lake and Commerce Township or that there are fewer housing starts in that area?
Michigan isn't growing, so when places like South Lyon, Livingston County, Washtenaw County, Macomb County, the northern borders of Oakland County are booming, it's at the expense of other burbs.
Michigan isn't growing, so when places like South Lyon, Livingston County, Washtenaw County, Macomb County, the northern borders of Oakland County are booming, it's at the expense of other burbs.
Again, I assume you have concrete stats with which to back this up? Let's see them.
Growth rates for some inner-ring suburbs, 2010-2015:
Southfield: 1.9%
Royal Oak: 3.1%
Berkley: 2.0%
Warren: 1.0%
Madison Heights: 1.7%
Oak Park: 1.5%
Farmington Hills: 2.0%
Overall Michigan did grow, just not by much - it grew by about 40,000 people. Roughly one Muskegon (not bad, compared to other Midwestern states).
Generally speaking Michigan is seeing the exact same demographic shift that the rest of the nation is seeing. This isn't city to suburb or inner-ring to outer-ring. Rather we're seeing country to metro. Most suburbs in Metro Detroit grew over the last 5 years. They didn't all post growth rates like Novi (6.3%) or Oakland TWP (14.2%), but with the exception of a few less-desirable places which are still in mild decline (Dearborn, Ecorse, Inkster, Wayne..) they did post growth rates. Even towns like Center Line, Roseville, and Eastpointe posted growth rates of about 1%, something I bet nobody thought possible in 2010. In addition to growth, property values increased adding to tax bases, allowing for infrastructure upgrades and better city services further making the little inner-ring burbs more desirable. Another interesting note from the 2015 pseudo-census is the decrease in population of all the Grosse Pointes (and Grosse Ile), by about 2.5-3.5%. That's significant. Not sure why these are not attracting new residents as I consider them to be desirable, even if overpriced.
That being said, Canton actually shrunk between 2010 and 2015 by (-0.3%). Another interesting observation is growth in cities like Pontiac, Kalamazoo and Lansing, considered products of industrial decline for decades - yet here they are, growing, looking better and better, every day. I predict that by 2020 Detroit and Flint will post population growth. People are truly underestimating the desire of young people to live near... things. City things.
Growth rates for some inner-ring suburbs, 2010-2015:
Southfield: 1.9%
Royal Oak: 3.1%
Berkley: 2.0%
Warren: 1.0%
Madison Heights: 1.7%
Oak Park: 1.5%
Farmington Hills: 2.0%
Overall Michigan did grow, just not by much - it grew by about 40,000 people. Roughly one Muskegon (not bad, compared to other Midwestern states).
Generally speaking Michigan is seeing the exact same demographic shift that the rest of the nation is seeing. This isn't city to suburb or inner-ring to outer-ring. Rather we're seeing country to metro. Most suburbs in Metro Detroit grew over the last 5 years. They didn't all post growth rates like Novi (6.3%) or Oakland TWP (14.2%), but with the exception of a few less-desirable places which are still in mild decline (Dearborn, Ecorse, Inkster, Wayne..) they did post growth rates. Even towns like Center Line, Roseville, and Eastpointe posted growth rates of about 1%, something I bet nobody thought possible in 2010. In addition to growth, property values increased adding to tax bases, allowing for infrastructure upgrades and better city services further making the little inner-ring burbs more desirable. Another interesting note from the 2015 pseudo-census is the decrease in population of all the Grosse Pointes (and Grosse Ile), by about 2.5-3.5%. That's significant. Not sure why these are not attracting new residents as I consider them to be desirable, even if overpriced.
That being said, Canton actually shrunk between 2010 and 2015 by (-0.3%). Another interesting observation is growth in cities like Pontiac, Kalamazoo and Lansing, considered products of industrial decline for decades - yet here they are, growing, looking better and better, every day. I predict that by 2020 Detroit and Flint will post population growth. People are truly underestimating the desire of young people to live near... things. City things.
Actually you are proving 734 point. Everyone knows that all those suburbs population increase came from people getting out of Detroit. In the past five years when people left from Detroit most likely they ran to Southfield , Eastpointe, Oak Park,Warren,Harper Woods, Redford etc.or out of state to Atlanta, Chicago, Dc, Nashville etc. Canton , Royal Oak, Novi etc received many residents of the above suburbs not liking" Detroiters" moving to their town and they marched too. But lord and behold the long time residents of Canton, Royal Oak, Novi etc didn't like the people moving into their area from the likes of Southfield, Eastpointe, Oak Park, Warren etc and moved farther out. All what is going on is musical chairs, when Detroit gains, Oakland County, Macomb County loses and vice versa. Unlike Metro areas like Chicago,New York Atlanta, Dc, Los Angeles etc all you see are Michigan license plates.
I'm a 28 y.o. millenial who bought a place in Clawson and drive around metro detroit a lot for work during the day. Heres my view:
West Bloomfield -- many elderly people, no downtown, unappealing and overpriced. I imagine supply will steadily hit the market each year and prices flat/downward. This seems more like a supply issue from a population turn over and stagnant demand from the lack of interest.
Ferndale -- not enough demand/interest for family-starters and too much rift raft from detroit makes it unattractive. Just look at Ferndale real estate right now, theres a lot for sale given how small the area is. It is definitely a buyers market where as everything else close to Royal Oak is a sellers market. That says a lot right there. Yes I know the LGBT community has a presence, but only ~5%-8% of people in the USA are gay and most people in the nicer cities (aka educated citizens) aren't homophobic or intolerant so theres no reason why a gay couple can't just live there.
Novi-- I can't stand the traffic, and someone in here just posted it had 5% population growth. Everytime I'm there it takes 20 minutes to drive what feels like 3 miles. How much more can it keep growing? It is a cookie cutter suburb with frustrating traffic. I guess the low property taxes make it worthwhile so possibly it holds up.
Detroit -- I still feel like Detroit is not able to answer the question plaguing it for probably 4+ decades, "why would anyone want to live in Detroit?".
I think a lot of people in here bring up some good points, but many are missing the actual trends that will change things. By 2020, the largest demographic in this country will be people in the age bracket 25-34, and these ~45 million people will be buying homes for the next 20 years. Who I feel sorry for are the developers who got hoodwinked by marketing firms that claimed Millenials are some new-age breed eager to live in 800sqft apartments in urban cities like Detroit. give me a f'in break... people are a product of their environment and many of us grew up in the suburbs, so it makes sense we will settle for a home in the burbs.
However, the other thing to keep in mind is that the future of suburbs is no longer 75%+ white people. White people may only make up 40%-50% of suburbs and that could effect some cities or desire to live in an area... This is very hard to figure out who benefits/declines but that is something to note.
Additionally, the other two trends for strong housing prices seem: low inventory from dearth of new construction permits since 2008 and a president like HRC who will continue the trend of letting in educated immigrants. From the immigrants I've met, they tend to be liberal and value security. So I think liberal suburbs do well (Royal Oak).
Combining it all you get: hugeee Millenial demographic + low inventory levels and building since 08 crash + influx of educated immigrants = higher home prices in liberal & family suburbs.
Detroit -- I still feel like Detroit is not able to answer the question plaguing it for probably 4+ decades, "why would anyone want to live in Detroit?".
I think a lot of people in here bring up some good points, but many are missing the actual trends that will change things. By 2020, the largest demographic in this country will be people in the age bracket 25-34, and these ~45 million people will be buying homes for the next 20 years. Who I feel sorry for are the developers who got hoodwinked by marketing firms that claimed Millenials are some new-age breed eager to live in 800sqft apartments in urban cities like Detroit. give me a f'in break... people are a product of their environment and many of us grew up in the suburbs, so it makes sense we will settle for a home in the burbs.
While I agree that the desire of millenials to live in cities is overstated, there is a much larger % of young professionals in their 20's and 30's that do want to live in the big cities than say 20 to 30 year ago. This is why cities like Philadelphia and Washington, DC, and Seattle, all cities which lost population for 3 to 4 decades, are gaining. There are many, many Michigan-native graduates of MSU and U of M who move to Chicago for work, and when they move there, they live in the city for the most part. Then when they have children, they either move to the Chicago suburbs, or move back to a suburban community in Michigan.
They wouldn't be building all of those apartments on the Riverfront, Downtown, and Midtown if there wasn't a demand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mimoo30
However, the other thing to keep in mind is that the future of suburbs is no longer 75%+ white people. White people may only make up 40%-50% of suburbs and that could effect some cities or desire to live in an area... This is very hard to figure out who benefits/declines but that is something to note.
I don't see it. There are 1 million black in the metro (half live in the city), but 3 million whites, a large minority of Middle Eastern, and a sprinkling of Latinos and Asians. There is no way that whites only make up 40-50% of the metro population anytime soon. There is no way we get immigration to that extent to outnumber white folks. That would mean about 1.5 million to 2 million immigrants move here, black folks completely abandon the city, and a white exodus to the Thumb and Lansing.
Actually you are proving 734 point. Everyone knows that all those suburbs population increase came from people getting out of Detroit. In the past five years when people left from Detroit most likely they ran to Southfield , Eastpointe, Oak Park,Warren,Harper Woods, Redford etc.or out of state to Atlanta, Chicago, Dc, Nashville etc. Canton , Royal Oak, Novi etc received many residents of the above suburbs not liking" Detroiters" moving to their town and they marched too. But lord and behold the long time residents of Canton, Royal Oak, Novi etc didn't like the people moving into their area from the likes of Southfield, Eastpointe, Oak Park, Warren etc and moved farther out. All what is going on is musical chairs, when Detroit gains, Oakland County, Macomb County loses and vice versa. Unlike Metro areas like Chicago,New York Atlanta, Dc, Los Angeles etc all you see are Michigan license plates.
Not at all. 734 stated that when outer burbs gain, inner burbs lose, what I did was specifically show otherwise. I also showed that as a whole, and as a metro, the entire area gained. I know many would like to see Detroit continue to decline for some unexplained reason, but that simply isn't happening. In fact, the metro as a whole grew by about 4,000 people from 2010 to 2015, which is significant since everyone knows the metro as a whole was bleeding population as late as 2013. Did some of the suburban growth come from Detroit? Of course, but not most. And that's a trend which is quickly righting itself, due to good city leadership. - In fact, according to Mayor Duggan, "I'm very confident that the city of Detroit is growing now and that will be reflected in the next report," Duggan said. "People aren't moving out at anywhere near the rate they were. They are choosing to stay. We're at a historic tipping point."
Also, the end of your post isn't only hyperbole, but it's downright inaccurate. Chicago for example lost more population than Detroit in 2015, making Cook County the biggest population loser of 2015 - yes, bigger than Wayne County (note for whoever fact checks me, I'm referencing the change from 2014 to 2015 alone, not 2010 to 2015) and while California is growing, very little of that is domestic migration. Finally, if you've not seen the thousands of Illinois, Ohio, Ontario and Indiana plates around the metro, I don't know what to tell you, pay more attention? Another interesting point is the National Movers Study, which shows which states are inbound and outbound states for movers. An expected piece of information here is that Michigan was a High-Outbound state from 1995-2012, but then in 2013 it became neutral. 2014 showed low-outbound and 2015 again neutral - making it quite the bright spot in the Great Lakes region. This means the people who leave are being replaced. Over time this will translate to population growth, as a healthy economy will lead to people having families. Personally I don't think the long time residents of Canton, Novi, and Royal Oak care if the family next door is white or not, this isn't 1967. Nah, they're just happy to see a good family in town.
"West Bloomfield -- many elderly people, no downtown, unappealing and overpriced. I imagine supply will steadily hit the market each year and prices flat/downward. This seems more like a supply issue from a population turn over and stagnant demand from the lack of interest."
Just want to point out that if you're driving around a surburban community during the work day, you will mostly see the older adults around. Most young adults are at work and children are at school. Parents with very young children usually don't hang around outside as much, unless the weather is nice and the kids can be occupied safely. True, no downtown in West Bloomfield, but lots of places to shop, and there are plenty of pleasant neighborhoods.
Location: RI, MA, VT, WI, IL, CA, IN (that one sucked), KY
41,938 posts, read 36,935,179 times
Reputation: 40635
Quote:
Originally Posted by highlanderfil
Then you aren't looking closely enough. Empty storefronts are a sign of decline, not maturity.
Not at all the case. Plenty of places that are on the uptick have empty storefronts. The landlords raise the rents in gentrifying areas, forcing the old stores out, and often they'll remain vacant for some time before the higher paying retailer (or whatever) moves in. See it all the time.
It is definitely a buyers market where as everything else close to Royal Oak is a sellers market
While it may be more of a buyer's market than Royal Oak, I doubt the difference is all that pronounced.
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