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Old 10-18-2016, 02:03 PM
 
49 posts, read 44,903 times
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As in, in 10 years which currently top tier suburb will be worse than it is now?
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Old 10-18-2016, 06:17 PM
 
Location: Chicago
936 posts, read 842,316 times
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I think Ferndale is flying too close to the sun right now.
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Old 10-18-2016, 10:21 PM
 
4,020 posts, read 2,922,255 times
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The aforementioned convenience store/pizza place. Boarded up and ready to go...nowhere.



Coldstone. Gone and forgotten.



A wine store (if memory serves) no more.



The Pieology has been under development for quite some time. It might be finished by now, but it was certainly still half-baked during the summer.

I could probably find a couple more, but I think I've made my point. Once again - I've not set out to make Royal Oak sound like some kind of a wasteland, so there's no need to overreact. I like Royal Oak a lot and it's true that it has seen a number of housing developments pop up; however, if real estate prices in R.O. continues on their upward spiral, driven by its reputation of a cool town (well-deserved, I might add), but businesses continue to trickle out, I can see it hitting some tough times.
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Old 10-19-2016, 05:52 AM
 
Location: Metro Detroit
1,786 posts, read 1,929,903 times
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Pieology is surprisingly good for its inexpensive price ($7 per pizza, unlimited toppings). I ate there 2 or 3 weeks ago and it was decently busy. Its windows are on retractable garage-type doors to give the location "outdoor" dining in nice weather. Next to Burgrz, the former Coldstone is now a local owned ice cream store (better for the economy, less overhead), I've not tried it yet - actually I'm not sure if it's even open? Seems like opening in the Winter would be a bad idea though. The boarded up convenience store is now a hard-rock-cafe-esque restaurant with live music, and I'm not sure what's next to Atomic Coffee, which is surprising as I go to Atomic probably once a month. It may still be for lease. Atomic Coffee is always crowded though, so I don't imagine that building will go to hell any time soon.

I think the primary issue in Downtown Royal Oak is rising rents are forcing some tenants out, and while not ideal, that's also not a terrible issue to have. It's certainly not a lack of demand. Even the most posh areas have business turnover, the issue only happens when the stores remain vacant for long periods, which they certainly don't in RO.

The only real blight downtown Royal Oak still has is the defunct Pontiac dealership. It's a bit of an eyesore and I hate that it has become the "free" parking lot for people driving in from out of town. My understanding is that plans are in development to build a Hyatt Hotel and other mixed use building in its place.
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Old 10-19-2016, 06:14 AM
 
Location: Grosse Ile Michigan
27,749 posts, read 65,558,358 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geo-Aggie View Post
I hate that it has become the "free" parking lot for people driving in from out of town.
Do you own a parking garage?
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Old 10-19-2016, 06:19 AM
 
Location: Grosse Ile Michigan
27,749 posts, read 65,558,358 times
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I think it depends on how you define "worse" If worse means boarded up stores, homeless on the street corners - I cannot think of anyplace. If "worse" means the historic buildings and any interesting architecture torn down and replaces with box shaped condos with insufficient parking, and starbucks, there are a few that seem destined for this fate. Ann Arbor has been going that way for a long while and there are plans to escalate this. South Lyon seems like to complete its transformation to the dark side. Brighton is at risk IMO.
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Old 10-19-2016, 06:57 AM
 
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Call me naive, but I think the metro Detroit housing market has sorted itself out since 2008. The overall population declined to a level that is more sustainable to the region, and we are actually seeing some housing shortages. Given the current trends I don't see that much change in the suburbs going up or down. Yes, places like South Lyon are uber-hot, but only so many people are willing to keep moving north and west given that the job centers are where they are.
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Old 10-19-2016, 07:21 AM
 
Location: Metro Detroit
1,786 posts, read 1,929,903 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldjensens View Post
Do you own a parking garage?
No, but I indirectly benefit from people paying $2 to the parking meters owned by the city I live and play in (before you make the argument all Salt Lakers made about the parking meters that went in there, if $2 is going to prevent you from visiting, you probably weren't going to visit anyway)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arthur Digby Sellers View Post
Call me naive, but I think the metro Detroit housing market has sorted itself out since 2008. The overall population declined to a level that is more sustainable to the region, and we are actually seeing some housing shortages. Given the current trends I don't see that much change in the suburbs going up or down. Yes, places like South Lyon are uber-hot, but only so many people are willing to keep moving north and west given that the job centers are where they are.
I think this is most accurate which is why I didn't really offer any alternative towns for potential decline. Sure, some towns are expensive, and Royal Oak is a good example of very expensive for what you get (1,000 square foot bungalow for 200k), but the demand is there, the whole region is stable, and the people buying the homes can afford them. I think a lot of Metro Detroiters need to compare how much equivalent areas cost in other metro areas. Compare housing prices of nicer middle class Detroit suburbs to their equivalents near DC or LA. It really tells a story. Even SLC or Denver look expensive as I can promise you Sugar House, UT or Arvada, CO cost a metric crap ton more than Royal Oak.

I saw a map a couple days ago showing the average time a house sits on the market before selling and Michigan was actually one of the higher turnover states. Not top 10, but somewhere in the 10-20 range, and I assume this is largely due to what's going on in the Metro areas (Detroit/GR) rather than what's going on in the rest of the state. I really just don't see a market like that plummeting any time over the next decade or so. Overall, the nicer Detroit suburbs are all quite stable and I think the biggest risk some may face is the resurgence of select non-Downtown Detroit neighborhoods as desirable residential places in the next 10-15 years, or so.

I think when that happens you see an almost inverse urbanization occur among... [whatever the people born after Millennials are called...], who will be buying their first homes in the 2020/2030s, and are given the selection of a thriving, diverse, and revitalized East English Village vs. a still-beautiful, but aging [West Bloomfield/Canton/Macomb] that just feels so far away. I think cities like Troy/Southfield with business centers, Warren/Livonia/Sterling Heights with manufacturing centers and Royal Oak/Ferndale/B-Ham with nightlife/shopping centers will stay desirable because there will always be people wanting to live near those things, but the half acre, long commute, and 3 mile drive for car-centric shopping will continue to lose steam over the next couple decades as we become more urban, but those places won't decline, they'll simply age - and people will always want more space and quiet, I simply they they'll quit growing and as long as the metro retains population and even sees mild growth no where is going to get significantly worse.

Last edited by Geo-Aggie; 10-19-2016 at 07:32 AM..
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Old 10-19-2016, 07:55 AM
 
4,020 posts, read 2,922,255 times
Reputation: 3159
Quote:
Originally Posted by Geo-Aggie View Post
Pieology is surprisingly good for its inexpensive price ($7 per pizza, unlimited toppings). I ate there 2 or 3 weeks ago and it was decently busy.
Oh, they've opened? Good, I'll have to check them out.
Quote:
Next to Burgrz, the former Coldstone is now a local owned ice cream store (better for the economy, less overhead), I've not tried it yet - actually I'm not sure if it's even open?
Must be a new development. I drove through town about a month ago and it was still deserted.
Quote:
Seems like opening in the Winter would be a bad idea though. The boarded up convenience store is now a hard-rock-cafe-esque restaurant with live music, and I'm not sure what's next to Atomic Coffee, which is surprising as I go to Atomic probably once a month. It may still be for lease. Atomic Coffee is always crowded though, so I don't imagine that building will go to hell any time soon.
Also good to hear. I'm always willing to stand corrected when evidence is presented. With that said, those properties did stand vacant long enough to be noticeable. And I am, frankly, shocked Atomic is still in business because, at least when I went there, it didn't seem to offer much by way of differentiation from any other coffee shop (but maybe that's actually a good thing?).
Quote:
The only real blight downtown Royal Oak still has is the defunct Pontiac dealership. It's a bit of an eyesore and I hate that it has become the "free" parking lot for people driving in from out of town. My understanding is that plans are in development to build a Hyatt Hotel and other mixed use building in its place.
[/quote]Didn't even know about this one.
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Old 10-19-2016, 08:38 AM
 
11 posts, read 13,954 times
Reputation: 23
1. I'm unsure how the inland parts of The Pointes hold on. Grosse Pointe South HS has dropped to #25 in the state. You have to assume people quit bothering with GP (and commuting to private schools) when they can just buy a mansion in Oakland Township or Northville with access to the #1 and #2 school districts (Rochester & Northville, respectively).

2. Southfield and Farmington will continue to spiral... which imo calls into question good burbs that border them. Will Troy and the south side of Rochester Hills hold off the 'creep'?

3. West Bloomfield?

4. My kids tell me the new Bloomfield Hills High School is chaos.

Last edited by 734accountant; 10-19-2016 at 10:00 AM..
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