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Old 12-13-2016, 01:41 PM
SQL
 
Location: The State of Delusion - Colorado
1,337 posts, read 899,633 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldjensens View Post
Unfortunately, it may benefit Chicago, New York and LA more than Detroit. However as Detroit becomes more and more alive, it will have a better chance of keeping kids here after college.
I moved away after graduating from college in 2008. However, I'm strongly considering it was a relocation option as the COL in Denver becomes outrageous.
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Old 12-13-2016, 02:35 PM
 
Location: Grosse Ile Michigan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Geo-Aggie View Post
I've shared this study a few times, but it can't seem to dispel the myth that the 2000-2010 "brain drain" is still at thing. The reality is that it isn't. It was. It absolutely was, but it is now a thing of the past.

This study shows that currently (well, in 2015...) Detroit/Warren/Livonia has the #1 best retention rate of local college grads of 2 and 4 year programs, of anywhere in the nation. When you look at only 4 year graduates, Metro Detroit lands in the #3 spot.

Which U.S. Metros Are Best at Keeping Their College Grads? - CityLab

Michigan Radio had some discussion on this and stated that when you expand this to include Ann Arbor and Lansing the numbers do fall off some and the whole region (Detroit/Ann Arbor/Lansing) ends up being about average for the nation, but this makes sense as you've got the expect that a significant percentage of the student population at UM and MSU are from out of state, and less likely to stick around - also, I'm not sure if they corrected for the fact that most Ann Arbor/Lansing grads who stick around Michigan will head for Detroit. It doesn't appear that they did?

Is "brain drain" a myth? Study suggests Metro Detroit leads nation in college grad retention | Michigan Radio

Additionally a study showing the population increase among millennials from 2010-2013 by metro area showed Metro Detroit in an enviable place, landing at #5 out of the 52 metros considered, growing its young adult population from 506,000 to 541,000. Obviously a big factor in this is how many young adults left during the prior 10 years, but people need to recognize 2016 is not 2006.

Millennial Boomtowns: Where The Generation Is Clustering (It's Not Downtown) | Newgeography.com
As a fun aside, my former metro (SLC) landed at #52 of 52, being 1 of 3 metros (along with Birmingham, AL and Milwaukee) to actually lose young adult population, but my theory is SLC lost population due to a religious policy change causing so many more young adults to attend two year religious sales trips during that period - Can I tell you just how much I don't miss SLC? - Also of note this number is increasing nationally in most cities because 1990-1993 were the highest birthrate years since 1971 and this was the range aging into the 20-29 bracket during the years considered.

So no, this does not benefit only Chicago, LA, NYC, Atlanta, etc. The biggest winner is Detroit.
It is not clear what schools they are including when considering retainage rates in the metro areas. If Detroit metro is Wayne State and Oakland and some smaller colleges, that is not surprising. are they including MSU in Detroit Retention? U-M ? GVSU? Western? It appears form this unclear statement in the article 77% does not include U-M and MSU

"Others pointed out that Detroit’s retention rate benefits from two major state universities—the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor and Michigan State in East Lansing—which receive considerable attendance from the greater Detroit area. When Rothwell combined these three metros, the retention rates dropped to 57 percent for two- and four-year institutions and 41 percent for four-year institutions."

If I am understanding what they are saying, we drop to 41% for four yer colleges when you include U-M and MSU. Still, not as bad as I thought it would be, but less than half.

It appears by retention from colleges in the Detroit Metro they are looking at the Detroit Metro schools only (Wayne State, Oakland, and a plethora of smaller/specialty schools). WSU, Oakland, and the smaller regional colleges and 2 year CCs do not surprise me they would retain most graduates in the area. They are regional schools with no name recognition outside Michigan at all. I wonder whether they included U-M Dearborn? I would expect U-M D. to be somewhat above 50% - maybe.

It is also unclear whether they included Eastern. Eastern is (or was) the largest teaching school in the US, however it is very hard for Eastern graduates to find public school teaching jobs in Michigan, so many (most?) leave the State, at least until they get some experience. How do they count people who leave the state temporarily then return? Are they retained?

However what is generally referred to as brain drain is the loss to top students form the top universities in the state. The people who have the option of gong anywhere. too many choose to go anywhere but here. Itf the article is correct and I am understanding their comment correctly, including U-M and MSU drops us form 77% to 41%. Which means that MSU and U-M are considerably lower than 40% (because they have to be low enough to pull down the 77% average from the regional schools.)
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Old 12-13-2016, 02:38 PM
 
Location: Grosse Ile Michigan
27,760 posts, read 65,577,769 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SQL View Post
I moved away after graduating from college in 2008. However, I'm strongly considering it was a relocation option as the COL in Denver becomes outrageous.
I moved to Southern California for 8 years and then came back. My daughter moved to Yuma then to Denver. Hopefully she will follow in your footsteps if you come back (or maybe we will move to Denver when I retire, who knows). From what I can tell, Denver has the same disease Orange County had when we moved there. Too much unanticipated growth. Not enough planning and preparation for that growth. Eventually they will get things figured out and it will be more sane there, at least that happened in Orange County.
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Old 12-13-2016, 03:20 PM
SQL
 
Location: The State of Delusion - Colorado
1,337 posts, read 899,633 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldjensens View Post
I moved to Southern California for 8 years and then came back. My daughter moved to Yuma then to Denver. Hopefully she will follow in your footsteps if you come back (or maybe we will move to Denver when I retire, who knows). From what I can tell, Denver has the same disease Orange County had when we moved there. Too much unanticipated growth. Not enough planning and preparation for that growth. Eventually they will get things figured out and it will be more sane there, at least that happened in Orange County.
Yeah, that's pretty much exactly how I'd describe it. The infrastructure is awful, but somewhat alleviated by good public transit that is operated by a regional transit department. Don't tell that to the natives who've lived there their entire lives and are banking on that growth, or they will flip their collective bleep on you.

If you plan on retiring here, save a bunch of money for a down payment. The COL has become insane, and the average home sale is around $400,000. This is part of the driving force for me to want to leave. I just can't keep up with the rapidly increasing COL (10%+ year over year on home sales) despite being a college grad from one of the better public schools in the US. At a certain point, if it don't make dollars, it don't make sense. At least in MI, I can afford a nice, humble house for a reasonable price while being able to afford the rest of my life.
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Old 12-15-2016, 06:26 AM
 
Location: Metro Detroit
1,786 posts, read 1,930,929 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SQL View Post
Yeah, that's pretty much exactly how I'd describe it. The infrastructure is awful, but somewhat alleviated by good public transit that is operated by a regional transit department. Don't tell that to the natives who've lived there their entire lives and are banking on that growth, or they will flip their collective bleep on you.

If you plan on retiring here, save a bunch of money for a down payment. The COL has become insane, and the average home sale is around $400,000. This is part of the driving force for me to want to leave. I just can't keep up with the rapidly increasing COL (10%+ year over year on home sales) despite being a college grad from one of the better public schools in the US. At a certain point, if it don't make dollars, it don't make sense. At least in MI, I can afford a nice, humble house for a reasonable price while being able to afford the rest of my life.
I can't tell you how much this factored into my family wanting to live in the Midwest. When we saw we could afford a nice single-family home in a community with low crime and good school districts, Metro Detroit sounded like pretty damn good place to raise a family, especially when compared to the infinitely expensive Coastal cities or the Intermountain boomtowns. I imagine similar factors play into retirement planning.
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Old 12-15-2016, 09:14 AM
SQL
 
Location: The State of Delusion - Colorado
1,337 posts, read 899,633 times
Reputation: 1492
Quote:
Originally Posted by Geo-Aggie View Post
I can't tell you how much this factored into my family wanting to live in the Midwest. When we saw we could afford a nice single-family home in a community with low crime and good school districts, Metro Detroit sounded like pretty damn good place to raise a family, especially when compared to the infinitely expensive Coastal cities or the Intermountain boomtowns. I imagine similar factors play into retirement planning.
You made a wise choice. Some people on the Denver forum will adamantly deny that COL is a problem in the area, but it seems like every other person I talk to IRL this issue comes up. So it must not be a problem for only a few like they think.

Fortunately, I do have a condo that I purchased a few years ago. So hopefully that'll end up being a nice investment property down the road. But if things keep going the way they are, I am going to try to convince my GF (future wife I hope) to move back with me to MI so that we can buy a nice home, in a nice area, and still be able to comfortably afford life. At the end of the day, these "Boom Towns" are fun to play in for a little bit, but eventually the crowdedness and excessive COL wears on you.
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Old 12-15-2016, 04:19 PM
 
Location: Grosse Ile Michigan
27,760 posts, read 65,577,769 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SQL View Post
You made a wise choice. Some people on the Denver forum will adamantly deny that COL is a problem in the area, but it seems like every other person I talk to IRL this issue comes up. So it must not be a problem for only a few like they think.
My daughter pays $1200 for a small 1 br apartment in a somewhat seedy area (bad area undergoing gentrification - which there does not mean people restoring classic old buildings. It means tearing down some of the slums and building cheap apartment buildings amongst the slums). She and her SO, both teachers are unlikely to ever be able to afford a house, unless something changes.
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Old 12-15-2016, 04:48 PM
SQL
 
Location: The State of Delusion - Colorado
1,337 posts, read 899,633 times
Reputation: 1492
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldjensens View Post
My daughter pays $1200 for a small 1 br apartment in a somewhat seedy area (bad area undergoing gentrification - which there does not mean people restoring classic old buildings. It means tearing down some of the slums and building cheap apartment buildings amongst the slums). She and her SO, both teachers are unlikely to ever be able to afford a house, unless something changes.
Tell them to look for condos or townhomes. Much more affordable than SFHs. My GF is a teacher as well. They don't pay very well here according to her. Not worth the COL if you are a public servant or services worker. But young, dumb people will move here no matter what to experience the lifestyle for a bit. They usually get tired of it after a few years and move closer to home.
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Old 12-16-2016, 09:37 AM
 
Location: Grosse Ile Michigan
27,760 posts, read 65,577,769 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SQL View Post
They don't pay very well here according to her.
I guess it depends on perspective. My daughter got a $10,000 raise moving from Yuma to Denver. Of course her apt in Yuma cost $380 rather than 1200.
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Old 12-16-2016, 09:40 AM
SQL
 
Location: The State of Delusion - Colorado
1,337 posts, read 899,633 times
Reputation: 1492
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldjensens View Post
I guess it depends on perspective. My daughter got a $10,000 raise moving from Yuma to Denver. Of course her apt in Yuma cost $380 rather than 1200.
She moved from Dallas and took about a $10k pay cut. Depends on where you're moving from. She also makes a little more as a science teacher.
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