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Old 03-11-2017, 08:37 PM
 
1,851 posts, read 2,293,709 times
Reputation: 1864

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Quote:
Originally Posted by brodie734 View Post
I mean, my uncle moved back into his parents house in what was a decent middle class neighborhood at the time. He was the only white guy on the block, but he never experienced any problems. However, his neighborhood went into decline following the recession and he experienced a number of break-ins before leaving. He had security and he didn't flaunt his middle class status. That area is now trending toward blighted.

There is immense danger in trying to sugarcoat what life is like in the outlying neighborhoods.
That is why we are only recommending a certain few neighborhoods to move to: Old Redford, Bagley, Southwest, etc. Nobody's recommending Dexter-Davison or the area around Osborne, Kettering, Southeastern, Northwestern, Southwestern, or Denby High Schools.
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Old 03-23-2017, 07:18 PM
 
2,952 posts, read 4,347,382 times
Reputation: 2238
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldjensens View Post
Wisdom from the watercooler circle.

Do you know what percentage of people in Detroit are impacted directly by crime?

The answer is you do not. I do not remember the number either, but it is below 20%. If is not 100%. Yes, it is higher than most suburbs. No it is not anywhere near 100%. You can find it. The infomration is out there although it may be pretty old. That is not a study they do on a regular basis.

Some people are more susceptible to theft etc. Those people fail to protect themselves: Leave things visible in their car; leave their door unlocked or even open; leave valuable things in the house visible through a front window; have inadequate security; go out at night all blingy and park where they have a long walk so they can save moeny on parking (to buy more bling); etc. Yes, there are still some who use good sense, take every reasonable precaution and still get robbed. However, now you are talking about single digit percent.

Yes you will have to take precautions people in the nice suburbs do not have to worry about. There are places where no one even locks the doors to their homes. If you want to leave your door unlocked, go live there, not in Detroit. If you want to leave you computer on the seat of your car when you park on the street, or to be free to bling up and park ten blocks from your event, go somewhere else. No city is safe for that kind of behavior, but there are places you can do those things. However, as with every major city inthe USA, if you want to live work or play in Detroit, you are going to have to take some precautions, and even then, you are somewhat more likely to be a victim than outside a major city. IF that is an unacceptable risk, stay out of cities.
These kind of conversations are boring and unproductive, but for you to reasses your opinion you need three things: FBI crime stats, a map, and a working knowledge of arithmetic.

I don't do homework for people too unmotivated to do it themselves.
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Old 03-27-2017, 10:45 AM
 
Location: Grosse Ile Michigan
27,759 posts, read 65,587,794 times
Reputation: 32943
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonnynonos View Post
These kind of conversations are boring and unproductive, but for you to reasses your opinion you need three things: FBI crime stats, a map, and a working knowledge of arithmetic.

I don't do homework for people too unmotivated to do it themselves.
Or you can just read the report - which is what I did. However I did not memorize the numbers because they are unimportant to me. It is sufficient to know it is lower that expected I think it was 14% impacted by some form or crime or another but that is testing my memory a bit. A few hours of research ont he computer and you might be able to find the report and avoid making absurd generalizations in the future.
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Old 03-27-2017, 12:32 PM
 
2,952 posts, read 4,347,382 times
Reputation: 2238
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldjensens View Post
Or you can just read the report - which is what I did. However I did not memorize the numbers because they are unimportant to me. It is sufficient to know it is lower that expected I think it was 14% impacted by some form or crime or another but that is testing my memory a bit. A few hours of research ont he computer and you might be able to find the report and avoid making absurd generalizations in the future.
Oh, I found it -- the number you were looking for was about 16.75%, but to me it is not that meaningful because it includes larceny. I do not think larceny is a deal breaker. However, here is what is apparently lost on you -- for some crazy reason: That is the number affected PER YEAR.

Do you get that part?

PER YEAR.

What is that number multiplied over a 5 year time period assuming there is rotation in victims? About 85%!!!!

Do you like those odds?!?!?!?!

Doing a quick back-of-the-matchbook calculation I would put the number affected by what I would consider meaningful crimes about 4.5% per year -- which is still bad. Meaning that over a 5 year period, about 1/4 or 1/5 residents is likely to be impacted by a serious crime -- all the violent crimes plus burglary, carjacking and auto theft.

Another way to look at that is that over a 5 year period someone in your family is virtually guaranteed to be affected by such a crime.

However, that is statistics for the city as a whole, and obviously the distribution varies greatly across neighborhoods.

Here's an interesting read:

The shocking rate of crime Detroit kids face each day

Happy now?

BTW, a number of the neighborhoods you guys are recommending to the OP actually have worse crime rates than the city as a whole.
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Old 03-27-2017, 02:06 PM
 
1,851 posts, read 2,293,709 times
Reputation: 1864
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonnynonos View Post
Oh, I found it -- the number you were looking for was about 16.75%, but to me it is not that meaningful because it includes larceny. I do not think larceny is a deal breaker. However, here is what is apparently lost on you -- for some crazy reason: That is the number affected PER YEAR.

Do you get that part?

PER YEAR.

What is that number multiplied over a 5 year time period assuming there is rotation in victims? About 85%!!!!

Do you like those odds?!?!?!?!

Doing a quick back-of-the-matchbook calculation I would put the number affected by what I would consider meaningful crimes about 4.5% per year -- which is still bad. Meaning that over a 5 year period, about 1/4 or 1/5 residents is likely to be impacted by a serious crime -- all the violent crimes plus burglary, carjacking and auto theft.

Another way to look at that is that over a 5 year period someone in your family is virtually guaranteed to be affected by such a crime.

However, that is statistics for the city as a whole, and obviously the distribution varies greatly across neighborhoods.

Here's an interesting read:

The shocking rate of crime Detroit kids face each day

Happy now?

BTW, a number of the neighborhoods you guys are recommending to the OP actually have worse crime rates than the city as a whole.
So what do you want us to say? That not one area in the entire 139 square miles of Detroit is safe for any sane person? Is that what are you getting at?
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Old 03-29-2017, 05:55 AM
 
Location: Grosse Ile Michigan
27,759 posts, read 65,587,794 times
Reputation: 32943
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonnynonos View Post
Oh, I found it -- the number you were looking for was about 16.75%, but to me it is not that meaningful because it includes larceny. I do not think larceny is a deal breaker. However, here is what is apparently lost on you -- for some crazy reason: That is the number affected PER YEAR.

Do you get that part?

PER YEAR.

What is that number multiplied over a 5 year time period assuming there is rotation in victims? About 85%!!!!

Do you like those odds?!?!?!?!

Doing a quick back-of-the-matchbook calculation I would put the number affected by what I would consider meaningful crimes about 4.5% per year -- which is still bad. Meaning that over a 5 year period, about 1/4 or 1/5 residents is likely to be impacted by a serious crime -- all the violent crimes plus burglary, carjacking and auto theft.

Another way to look at that is that over a 5 year period someone in your family is virtually guaranteed to be affected by such a crime.

However, that is statistics for the city as a whole, and obviously the distribution varies greatly across neighborhoods.

Here's an interesting read:

The shocking rate of crime Detroit kids face each day

Happy now?

BTW, a number of the neighborhoods you guys are recommending to the OP actually have worse crime rates than the city as a whole.
Actually the study I was referencing as base don a 5 year period. The math you tried to use creates a fallacy because many of the same people are going to be impacted by the same types of cimres over and over - why? because of their lifestyle. No 85% of Detroit Residents are not impacted by crime - especially if you exclude larceny which is the bulk of all crimes.
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