Corporation Relocations. When is Detroit going to be on the receiving end? What do we need to do?

[Arthur Digby Sellers]

Originally Posted by stoxdiamond

In down economies the first thing people cut out of their budget is purchasing new cars, domestic or foreign, so either way, the suppliers lose work and unemployment shoots up.

While economic dependency doesn't stop at Michigan's border, the fact that it is a central hub the automotive industry will cause it to feel massive ripple effects because there is a critical mass of automotive workers. If a automotive plant in South Carolina closes, sure, a few thousand workers are out of a job, but the entire state economy doesn't tank (as much).

In Michigan, the problems compound on itself on a down economy. First the auto companies stop building cars, layoffs ensure. Suppliers then stop getting work, layoffs ensure. Plants stop building parts, layoffs ensue. Talented workforce sees this happen, they sell their homes and leave the state for other work. Store/Restaurant owners see lots of people without work or leaving the state, they cannot afford to stay open and they close up shop. Michigan's college graduates see the state of the auto industry and they leave too. The problem just snowballs out of control like it did in 2007.

Recessions impact all industries, not just autos. 2007/2008 was an extreme outlier in terms of it's impact. The automakers are much better prepared to handle a decrease in sales and are indeed anticipating a slowdown in new vehicle purchases.

[mjlo]

Originally Posted by stoxdiamond

In Michigan, the problems compound on itself on a down economy. First the auto companies stop building cars, layoffs ensure. Suppliers then stop getting work, layoffs ensure. Plants stop building parts, layoffs ensue. Talented workforce sees this happen, they sell their homes and leave the state for other work. Store/Restaurant owners see lots of people without work or leaving the state, they cannot afford to stay open and they close up shop. Michigan's college graduates see the state of the auto industry and they leave too. The problem just snowballs out of control like it did in 2007.

They see the state of the auto industry? The state of the auto industry has been fantastic since at least 2011. What numbers are you looking at??

You're assuming a lot here. The first thing would be that the events of 2007 could happen again. During the great recession the automakers had already been struggling with the legacy costs of the past 45 years. They aren't dealing with the same financial overheads. They are far leaner and with far less redundant brands. This is something that the people who pedal these outdated view points never research for themselves. If the events of 2007 happened again it would be a global collapse, Michigan would not be on an island.

The second thing you're assuming is that college graduates are leaving Michigan. Michigan is gaining educated residents faster than in any other demographic. Please see the like from the census bureau's fact finder website below:

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/...w.xhtml?src=CF

Note that since 2010 the percentage of adults over the age of 25 with a bachelors degree or higher has gone from 28.6% to 31.2%. That's a surge of 2.6% in a state that's only gained .7% total population in the same time period. There has been a shift to a more educated population every year since these stats have been reported. A more educated population makes for a more stable economy overall regardless of the signature industry.

I really wish people would question their impressions and notions before making these outdated statements of hyperbole. Economic conditions change constantly I don't know why so many people continue to think conditions in Michigan would only stay the same or get worse. Especially when every data set over the last decade tells the exact opposite story.

[Geo-Aggie]

Originally Posted by mjlo

...Note that since 2010 the percentage of adults over the age of 25 with a bachelors degree or higher has gone from 28.6% to 31.2%. That's a surge of 2.6% in a state that's only gained .7% total population in the same time period. There has been a shift to a more educated population every year since these stats have been reported. A more educated population makes for a more stable economy overall regardless of the signature industry. ...

*waves*

You described both my wife and I as part of that demographic. This also describes probably 50% of our friends here (25+, college grads, moved here since 2010). Admittedly this is biased as we live in an area with a higher number of transplants and transplants tend to seek out other transplants for friends as we lack an established social group. Of note, neither my wife or I do anything even remotely associated with the automotive industry. Well, I drive a car to work because public transportation sucks..

[stoxdiamond]

Originally Posted by Arthur Digby Sellers

Recessions impact all industries, not just autos. 2007/2008 was an extreme outlier in terms of it's impact. The automakers are much better prepared to handle a decrease in sales and are indeed anticipating a slowdown in new vehicle purchases.

Recessions do affect all industries but AFAIK the auto industry was the only one (aside from the banks that caused the mess) that went to congress to ask for bailout money. I sure hope they have restructured to be better prepared for another downturn, especially since it seems that the ensuing trade war will have a direct negative effect on auto sales.

Originally Posted by mjlo

They see the state of the auto industry? The state of the auto industry has been fantastic since at least 2011. What numbers are you looking at??

You're assuming a lot here. The first thing would be that the events of 2007 could happen again. During the great recession the automakers had already been struggling with the legacy costs of the past 45 years. They aren't dealing with the same financial overheads. They are far leaner and with far less redundant brands. This is something that the people who pedal these outdated view points never research for themselves. If the events of 2007 happened again it would be a global collapse, Michigan would not be on an island.

The second thing you're assuming is that college graduates are leaving Michigan. Michigan is gaining educated residents faster than in any other demographic. Please see the like from the census bureau's fact finder website below:

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/...w.xhtml?src=CF

Note that since 2010 the percentage of adults over the age of 25 with a bachelors degree or higher has gone from 28.6% to 31.2%. That's a surge of 2.6% in a state that's only gained .7% total population in the same time period. There has been a shift to a more educated population every year since these stats have been reported. A more educated population makes for a more stable economy overall regardless of the signature industry.

I really wish people would question their impressions and notions before making these outdated statements of hyperbole. Economic conditions change constantly I don't know why so many people continue to think conditions in Michigan would only stay the same or get worse. Especially when every data set over the last decade tells the exact opposite story.

Yes I agree that it has gotten better since 2007 but it was really in the dumpster at that time. When I say "state of auto industry" I was referring to how it is viewed during a down economy. The auto industry is an extremely competitive industry with not so great margins (e.g. Ford getting rid of all their sedans). When the times are good, it's not even that attractive of an industry for recent college grads, think about how tough it is when times are bad.

I thought that Michigan's college grads leaving the state was an accepted truth. The net influx of college educated adult can be attributed to foreign educated immigrants:
https://www.thesouthend.wayne.edu/fe...fcae07c42.html
"According to the most recent census data, 135,443 people with bachelor’s degrees left Michigan and 155,147 moved to Michigan. The influx of college graduates is attributed to the internationally-educated immigrating to the U.S."

While there are more educated adults over the age of 25, Michigan is at the bottom in the 25-34 age group:
https://www.freep.com/story/opinion/...dus/533006002/
"In 2015-16, Michigan tied for fifth-lowest among all states in the proportion of its population who are young adults age 26 to 34, the group targeted for modern skills. This group accounted for only 11% of the population."

I'm not trying to disparage the auto industry as it's a great source of pride for Detroit and Michigan. Auto employees work extremely hard for IMO not enough compensation, as globalization continues to increase competition and eliminate margins. It's honestly just not that lucrative compared to other industries and college grads know that. My point is that Michigan needs to further diversify its economy.

[usroute10]

Originally Posted by snoopygirlmi

And from what I understand a lot of people really aren't using the Q line downtown.

In the end, most cities that have mass transit don't get the ridership they need to sustain it. So, that's a huge disincentive for people to invest in it. Why would people want to pay for something that we can't use (or don't want to use) when our government can't figure out basic road maintenance? Michigan is just behind the times when it comes to road maintenance. After a certain point, the whole "we have frost and melt cycles" excuse just doesn't wash. That's really a huge piece as to why mass transit is a hard sell in the area.

And it's all fine and good to point out that millennial don't want to drive, but guess what - they'll have to figure it out if they want to live here because we don't have mass transit and we aren't going to have it tomorrow. It's just where we are now and why can't it be good enough that we are what we are - a car town?!?

Again, I'm just trying to point out that some of these things are cultural, not a lack of wanting to be attractive to other people.

I'd love to be able to drive to Northville or Novi or Ann Arbor and catch a train into Downtown. However, who's going to pay and where's it going to be located? Who's going to get displaced so we can build it? Is mass transit really more of a fad instead of something that's actually usable (gets people where they want to go)?

Also, do we really need mass transit, if we have uber/lyft - that performs that same basic function and doesn't have to be subsidized by the government?

Diversification isn't going to happen overnight. However, there are a lot of signs that there's a good foundation for Detroit to be successful in the future.

1. Qline ridership is lower than what was projected, however, they have increased hours on weekdays and weekends. Originally, the Qline service was supposed to end at midnight on weekdays and 8 pm on Sunday, but now the Qline service ends at 2 am on weekdays and 11 pm on Sundays. So somebody must be using it.

2. YOU STATED: "In the end, most cities that have mass transit don't get the ridership they need to sustain it. So, that's a huge disincentive for people to invest in it."

Which systems don't have the ridership to sustain it? Name them. Sprawling auto-oriented cities like Phoenix, Charlotte, Houston, Dallas are all expanding their rail systems. (See, I named specific cities).

3. Concerning Uber/Lyft. They are a transit alternative, but not a MASS transit solution. On Monday, I used Lyft to get from downtown Detroit to Southfield. The cost: $22.16, plus I gave a $5 tip, so that's $27. The train from Downtown Cleveland to its main airport costs $2.50.

Also, Uber/Lyft still get stuck in traffic like every other vehicle on the road. The AA-Detroit Commuter rail is separated from the road. Any commuter rail between Detroit and Novi would be run on existing freight rail tracks, nobody is getting displaced.