How low will Detroit's population bottom out? (houses, layoffs)

[stevieD]

Looking at the trend of population decline from 1950 at 1.9 million to around 0.75-0.9 million today, how low will Detroit's population go before it stabilizes (ie, two consecutive census shows no decline), and when will that occur?

The City is so bad financially, I think it may become insolvent and be taken over by the State. Is it possible Detroit could no longer exist as we know it in 50 years? Could it be divided up into new municipalities, or could huge sections of the city be "de-annexed" into unincorporated rural areas again?

The population decline had slowed from 1980-2000, but I think with the Big 3 now in real trouble again and the massive layoffs, it could be speeding up again and the 2010 census could be a surprisingly lower number than expected.

I bet by 2050 the current city limits of Detroit will less than 500,000 people and the current City will be dissolved as we know it. A small central new city of Detroit will occupy the area in and just outside of downtown, and the rest will be unincorporated areas or new cities carved out.

[zthatzmanz28]

I honestly expect it will drop closer to 300K in the next 5 years...

Once the schools close and the businesses leave like CVS and University Market..

[BayAreaHillbilly]

200k.

[Chicagoland60426]

Actually it was below 900,000 around 2006 and it gain about 50,000 people according to 2008 census. So I don't think it will reach a low of 500,000.

[zthatzmanz28]

I thought I had heard it was currently estimated at 825,000 to 875,000. I do not think they will find enough homeless folks to get it back to 900.000.

People are leaving Detroit almost as fast as they are leaving Michigan.

When I was teaching in Detroit, 3 of my students moved during the school year and another 2 were planning on moving--into the burbs. And I only had 11 students and this was a premiere charter school.

Parents still worked in Detroit and brought the kids to school--took them out of the city at night.

[Chicagoland60426]

Originally Posted by zthatzmanz28

I thought I had heard it was currently estimated at 825,000 to 875,000. I do not think they will find enough homeless folks to get it back to 900.000.

People are leaving Detroit almost as fast as they are leaving Michigan.

When I was teaching in Detroit, 3 of my students moved during the school year and another 2 were planning on moving--into the burbs. And I only had 11 students and this was a premiere charter school.

Parents still worked in Detroit and brought the kids to school--took them out of the city at night.

Nope according to 2007 census, the population is at 916,000.

[Dexterguy]

Obviously 0 is an unrealistic number, Detroit will also have someone living in it. But I think that the population will have to get EXTREMELY low before any real changes begin (re-organization).

More and more schools closing are not going to help the situation one bit it's going to speed up the exodus process a lot. People want the very best schools for their children, especially in today's rocky economy. Detroit has terrible public schools and quickly declining neighborhoods, so who is going to be interested?

I estimate the city at 855,000 people right now, maybe less than that even. I suppose we will find out next year in the 2010 census. I'm sure the numbers are going to be staggering.

In the future I agree with making massive changes to Detroit's borders. Possibly new suburbs will be formed, each with their own seperate school district, but that decades down the road...

[zthatzmanz28]

Originally Posted by Chicagoland60426

Nope according to 2007 census, the population is at 916,000.

And what was it for 2008?

2009?

The Detroit Schools lost nearly 30, 000 kids?

They had parents and they did not all go to charter schools in the borders of Detroit'

[Shrewsbury Road]

Originally Posted by stevieD

Looking at the trend of population decline from 1950 at 1.9 million to around 0.75-0.9 million today, how low will Detroit's population go before it stabilizes (ie, two consecutive census shows no decline), and when will that occur?

The City is so bad financially, I think it may become insolvent and be taken over by the State. Is it possible Detroit could no longer exist as we know it in 50 years? Could it be divided up into new municipalities, or could huge sections of the city be "de-annexed" into unincorporated rural areas again?

The population decline had slowed from 1980-2000, but I think with the Big 3 now in real trouble again and the massive layoffs, it could be speeding up again and the 2010 census could be a surprisingly lower number than expected.

I bet by 2050 the current city limits of Detroit will less than 500,000 people and the current City will be dissolved as we know it. A small central new city of Detroit will occupy the area in and just outside of downtown, and the rest will be unincorporated areas or new cities carved out.

Thats dramatic, Detroit is not going to be that much in decline. Possibly by 2050 Cockrel and Bing and whoever else that comes in might have saved it before it completely plunged into death. My neighbors have this theory that as the suburbanites closest to the city continue to loose their jobs they will not be able to afford their houses and start returning to the city, which in some areas in unnoticeably evident, but I don't entirely believe in this theory.

[Dexterguy]

Originally Posted by zthatzmanz28

And what was it for 2008?

2009?

The Detroit Schools lost nearly 30, 000 kids?

They had parents and they did not all go to charter schools in the borders of Detroit'

It's also estimated that Detroit is losing up to 1,200 residents each month, that's a lot of people if you put that into perpective.