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Old 07-02-2010, 12:35 PM
 
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When in the employment report they say that X number of people have just given up looking for work, how do they locate and identify these people? Are these people the ones whose UE benefits have run out?
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Old 07-02-2010, 12:39 PM
 
Location: Virginia Beach, VA
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Originally Posted by stars99 View Post
When in the employment report they say that X number of people have just given up looking for work, how do they locate and identify these people? Are these people the ones whose UE benefits have run out?

People who have "given up looking for work", are people who for the governments count, have "dropped out of the workforce". In other words they no longer count as "unemployed".

The governments employment statistics are largely garbage, and the real unemployment rate is much higher. So, when a boatload of people suddenly "drop out of the workforce", this can artificially drop the unemployment rate, so the figure is normally added with the report.
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Old 07-02-2010, 12:42 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Randomdude View Post
People who have "given up looking for work", are people who for the governments count, have "dropped out of the workforce". In other words they no longer count as "unemployed".

The governments employment statistics are largely garbage, and the real unemployment rate is much higher. So, when a boatload of people suddenly "drop out of the workforce", this can artificially drop the unemployment rate, so the figure is normally added with the report.
You already said what I was going to post. To the OP, you need to look at the U6 to get the real unemployment rate.
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Old 07-02-2010, 12:46 PM
 
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OK, thanks, but I'm still confused. If someone has given up looking, that means they've been unemployed long term. How do they get an actual count of these people? Phone polling?
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Old 07-02-2010, 12:47 PM
 
Location: South Jordan, Utah
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Originally Posted by stars99 View Post
When in the employment report they say that X number of people have just given up looking for work, how do they locate and identify these people? Are these people the ones whose UE benefits have run out?
They send out and call and ask people who ask a bunch of questions and for the unemployed they ask if they are still looking for work. If not they are no longer counted in the workforce or unemployed.

For three months I had a census guy calling me and asking employment questions, it was interesting.
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Old 07-02-2010, 12:48 PM
 
Location: South Jordan, Utah
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Originally Posted by stars99 View Post
OK, thanks, but I'm still confused. If someone has given up looking, that means they've been unemployed long term. How do they get an actual count of these people? Phone polling?
Ya, they ask a random sample of people nationwide, well over 1 million each month and they change the people up every three months.
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Old 07-02-2010, 12:50 PM
 
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Ya, they ask a random sample of people nationwide, well over 1 million each month and they change the people up every three months.
thanks
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Old 07-02-2010, 12:58 PM
 
Location: Virginia Beach, VA
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Originally Posted by stars99 View Post
thanks

As you can see, by the simple fact that its a phone poll already discludes people who dont even have a phone, which probably includes a good number of people who....dont have jobs and cant afford phone service...dont have homes to put a phone in.....
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Old 07-02-2010, 01:11 PM
 
Location: South Jordan, Utah
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Originally Posted by Randomdude View Post
As you can see, by the simple fact that its a phone poll already discludes people who dont even have a phone, which probably includes a good number of people who....dont have jobs and cant afford phone service...dont have homes to put a phone in.....
They do come to your door, as long as you have a door. :-)
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Old 07-02-2010, 11:29 PM
 
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Originally Posted by las vegas drunk View Post
You already said what I was going to post. To the OP, you need to look at the U6 to get the real unemployment rate.
Ugh. I'm tired of this "real" unemployment crap. These definitions aren't made up buy the government in some mass conspiracy. These are actual economics terms in econ books accepted by the ILO. Each level has a different use and isn't more "real" than the other. The U-6 actually includes EMPLOYED persons as well as jobless and is used to find out how effectively people's skills are being used. For example, an engineer working at McDonald's would be included in the U-6; however, so could a full-time $40K/yr office worker who used to be an engineer and wants to get back into engineering and is looking for engineering work. It's a good rate to measure if resources in an economy are being used to fullest potential, but not as an indicator if people can afford to consume goods/services or feed themselves. That is the BIG question people want to know. The U3 is the best measure generally, and U-4 would be a better measurement in this economic climate because it includes discouraged workers (people who would GENERALLY look for work but have stopped because they do not think it is available for them). U-1 is also useful because it counts only those who have been unemployed for 15+ weeks.
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