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Old 08-08-2010, 04:45 PM
 
286 posts, read 654,981 times
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If you look five to ten years out, you see there are several “game-changing” technologies on the horizon.

A few of them are:
- Solar power that is price competitive with coal.
- Stem cell research and genetic research that extends our lifespans and eradicates several costly diseases.
- Visual recognition software and natural language processing—i.e., a computer will recognize images and understand the meaning of everyday language.
- Improved Artificial Intelligence.

Several other technologies are already here, but will become better, cheaper and more ubiquitous in the coming years.
- Wireless technology
- Smart phones
- Miniaturization of video cameras.
- Fully automated manufacturing.

The impact of the above technologies, especially when coupled together, will be profound.

People assume computers will take our jobs. Some jobs they will. Manufacturing will continue to shed jobs as production becomes automated. Low level office jobs and low-level technical jobs will be shed as it will be easier for a computer to do those tasks. In this regard, AI will be a bigger threat than offshoring.

But for most American workers, productivity will shoot through the roof. Much of person’s work time will be spent delegating to computers in the same manner they would a team of people, then checking over their work. Our economy will increasingly become a 24/7 economy: people will work from 10-5 and computers will work the rest in off hours.

The supposed threats from India and China will diminish. Countries that emphasize rote learning and lack workers with strong creative/analytical skills are basically screwed. Much of the low-level software support and programming currently done in India will be done by computers in 10 years.

Where have seen similar technological breakthroughs in the past? The 1930’s and 1940’s. During that period we saw staggering technological breakthroughs overshadowed by a protracted deleveraging recession—just like our current one. After WWII, these technological breakthroughs finally manifested in the “golden age” of 1950’s. In doing so, our culture was revolutionized for the better.

In ten years, it will happen again.

Last edited by mcredux; 08-08-2010 at 05:19 PM..
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Old 08-08-2010, 05:16 PM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
5,726 posts, read 10,792,622 times
Reputation: 9779
Interesting perspective. Prepare to be shouted down though.
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Old 08-09-2010, 12:51 AM
 
29,489 posts, read 32,520,653 times
Reputation: 31292
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcredux View Post
If you look five to ten years out, you see there are several “game-changing” technologies on the horizon.

A few of them are:
- Solar power that is price competitive with coal.
- Stem cell research and genetic research that extends our lifespans and eradicates several costly diseases.
- Visual recognition software and natural language processing—i.e., a computer will recognize images and understand the meaning of everyday language.
- Improved Artificial Intelligence.

Several other technologies are already here, but will become better, cheaper and more ubiquitous in the coming years.
- Wireless technology
- Smart phones
- Miniaturization of video cameras.
- Fully automated manufacturing.

The impact of the above technologies, especially when coupled together, will be profound.

People assume computers will take our jobs. Some jobs they will. Manufacturing will continue to shed jobs as production becomes automated. Low level office jobs and low-level technical jobs will be shed as it will be easier for a computer to do those tasks. In this regard, AI will be a bigger threat than offshoring.

But for most American workers, productivity will shoot through the roof. Much of person’s work time will be spent delegating to computers in the same manner they would a team of people, then checking over their work. Our economy will increasingly become a 24/7 economy: people will work from 10-5 and computers will work the rest in off hours.

The supposed threats from India and China will diminish. Countries that emphasize rote learning and lack workers with strong creative/analytical skills are basically screwed. Much of the low-level software support and programming currently done in India will be done by computers in 10 years.

Where have seen similar technological breakthroughs in the past? The 1930’s and 1940’s. During that period we saw staggering technological breakthroughs overshadowed by a protracted deleveraging recession—just like our current one. After WWII, these technological breakthroughs finally manifested in the “golden age” of 1950’s. In doing so, our culture was revolutionized for the better.

In ten years, it will happen again.
I do believe that fossil fuels will become more expensive than renewable sources in 5 to 10 years, so that means fossil fuel use will be phased out without the need for tons of new regulations.

But I don't think stem cell research is really the cure to most of our diseases. We have to stop believing more "treatmets" are the cure for most of our health problems. The real cure for most of our ills is natural, non-processed foods, and limited beef and poultry consumption (and grass fed beef). The key to good, and cheap health care is living a healthier lifestyle.

If most of us ate real food, didn't smoke, maintained a healthy weight, and exercised a few times a week:

Diabetes would drop by 93%
Heart disease would drop by 81%
Cancer would drop by 36%

I'm not making that up, that's what the research says:

Key to Affordable Health Care: Healthier Lifestyles | LiveScience

To an extent, I agree with you about technolgy creating new jobs. Problem is, I don't know if most of America is going to have the skills to perform those new jobs.
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Old 08-09-2010, 08:57 AM
 
48,507 posts, read 90,420,568 times
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I do not seee fossil guels being m0re expensive i our lifetime or even alternative that can do much to replace crude and its other 19000 products besides fuels. The infrastructure for alternative alone will make the cost prohibitive in the short term.It will be decades before even in small amounts it will not have to be mandated and heavily subsidised and provide no revenues to government.Its going to be a slow and expensive processs with mnay actaully costing much more than crude based fuels and products now do on adjusted basis.Also as the US consumers thru its medical system pays for 70% of medical and drug research in the wolrd with its changing healthcare system :I do not see it having the money to continue to fund research like now since the risk verus profit will not be there to justify investment by private sector as much.
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Old 08-09-2010, 09:08 AM
 
Location: Tower of Heaven
4,023 posts, read 6,853,078 times
Reputation: 1446
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcredux View Post
If you look five to ten years out, you see there are several “game-changing” technologies on the horizon.

A few of them are:
- Solar power that is price competitive with coal.
- Stem cell research and genetic research that extends our lifespans and eradicates several costly diseases.
- Visual recognition software and natural language processing—i.e., a computer will recognize images and understand the meaning of everyday language.
- Improved Artificial Intelligence.

Several other technologies are already here, but will become better, cheaper and more ubiquitous in the coming years.
- Wireless technology
- Smart phones
- Miniaturization of video cameras.
- Fully automated manufacturing.

The impact of the above technologies, especially when coupled together, will be profound.

People assume computers will take our jobs. Some jobs they will. Manufacturing will continue to shed jobs as production becomes automated. Low level office jobs and low-level technical jobs will be shed as it will be easier for a computer to do those tasks. In this regard, AI will be a bigger threat than offshoring.

But for most American workers, productivity will shoot through the roof. Much of person’s work time will be spent delegating to computers in the same manner they would a team of people, then checking over their work. Our economy will increasingly become a 24/7 economy: people will work from 10-5 and computers will work the rest in off hours.

The supposed threats from India and China will diminish. Countries that emphasize rote learning and lack workers with strong creative/analytical skills are basically screwed. Much of the low-level software support and programming currently done in India will be done by computers in 10 years.

Where have seen similar technological breakthroughs in the past? The 1930’s and 1940’s. During that period we saw staggering technological breakthroughs overshadowed by a protracted deleveraging recession—just like our current one. After WWII, these technological breakthroughs finally manifested in the “golden age” of 1950’s. In doing so, our culture was revolutionized for the better.

In ten years, it will happen again.
I'm entirely agree, thank you to say that
America's future will be great, really

The USA has the best demographic trends of the developed world, the most diversified population in the world (far ahead others), it's the number one for wind resources, one of 5 best about solar resources, a great agricultural potentiel...The future is huge for the US
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Old 08-09-2010, 09:23 AM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,810 posts, read 17,852,850 times
Reputation: 9447
mysticaltyger wrote:
The key to good, and cheap health care is living a healthier lifestyle.
You and I know this, and unfortunately so does big pharma and the rest of the health care scammers, so it'll never happen. A healthy population is not good for the health care business. The health care scammers will do everything in their power to keep people unhealthy.
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Old 08-09-2010, 09:32 AM
 
22,769 posts, read 28,446,817 times
Reputation: 14639
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcredux View Post
The impact of the above technologies, especially when coupled together, will be profound.
If they are anything like previous technology, they will put more people out of work, while making life better for those people who are still productive.
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Old 08-09-2010, 09:55 AM
 
48,507 posts, read 90,420,568 times
Reputation: 18204
Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
mysticaltyger wrote:
The key to good, and cheap health care is living a healthier lifestyle.
You and I know this, and unfortunately so does big pharma and the rest of the health care scammers, so it'll never happen. A healthy population is not good for the health care business. The health care scammers will do everything in their power to keep people unhealthy.
They dn't have to do anything. Individuals take care of the bad lifestyle all b themselves. look around you at the weight aloe of so mnay. Thier not beig forced feed those crummy diets.The inductry is just responding to the unhealthy lifestyle chocies of individauls really.
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Old 08-09-2010, 10:00 AM
 
Location: Near the water
8,229 posts, read 12,412,698 times
Reputation: 3893
Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
They dn't have to do anything. Individuals take care of the bad lifestyle all b themselves. look around you at the weight aloe of so mnay. Thier not beig forced feed those crummy diets.The inductry is just responding to the unhealthy lifestyle chocies of individauls really.


yeah because those who are unemployed or under employed or just plain have no income at all can afford to eat along the lines of a healthy lifestyle

You do the best with what you have and if the only sustenance you take in is junk food, then that is better than no food at all. So, here we go again just blaming people for being lazy blah, blah........
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Old 08-09-2010, 10:05 AM
 
4,776 posts, read 3,907,272 times
Reputation: 14658
It's great to be an optimist in the middle of a crisis but optimism can't/wont change the immediate fact of resource depletion, all those wonderful techno changes listed in the Op will be petroleum dependent and therefore challenged by other technologies that will also be competing for that oil. Extraction costs of coal will become more of a challenge as oil becomes a scarce commodity, as for solar power becoming widespread the same challenges from oil depletion will apply. In his book, The Long Emergency, Jim Kunstler lays out the grim realities associated with our rock solid belief in a techno salvation that utilizes the past successes of an oil rich period in which we really did see the golden age of applied science change our world. The techno future however can't be taken for granted as being in the same league as the world of the fifties.

The Chinese will face the oil depleted future with an even worse prospect of economic survival, they have come a long ways in a very short time and the changes in their society have fueled an even greater lust for all things material. The total Asian agricultural reliance on oil/gas based fertilizers alone will be a certain drain on their economy, as the social priorities make themselves known it will be a contest for that last bit of oil, will it be used for medicine, fuel, fertilizer, clothing, steel production,etc? All of the known technologies are wrapped up in oil, also, we have a huge challenge in the agricultural construct worldwide that was built on the assumption of weather patterns from a fifty year period of observation. All in all, I don't see the boom of techno created jobs becoming a reality, we are already at the saturation point of worker to buyer ratios, until we find a way to put money in the pockets of the masses we'll see no appreciable rise in the US economy.

The health care "industry" is just that, an industry, and as such it has all the components of those market driven bottom line corporate mandates that demand profits over people, sad as that is the truth is we have some good news in that we don't need to become captive to the industrial medicine combine. As the poster above stated, we can manage to bring down the cost of health care by doing those things that make us less vulnerable to disease, again, medical technology can't keep up with the spread of McDonald's and other purveyors of unhealthy eating. Lastly, fossil fuels will rise in price for no other reason than the fact that oil companies will need the money to make the techno leap into whatever their next energy ventures require. We will continue to think in the old paradigm of plentiful oil until its scarcity becomes apparent in our everyday lives, the belief that we can just tech-up and create an alternative to the black goo is simply wishful thinking, it will be THE one greatest challenge to our future survival.
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