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In the latest issue of The Casey Report, Bud Conrad does a fantastic job analyzing the truth about Asia. Japan is a ticking demographic time bomb. The Chinese [COLOR=#01509D ! important][COLOR=#01509D ! important]government[/color][/color] has created the mother of all bubbles and when it pops, it will be felt around the world. The China Miracle isn't really a miracle. It's a debt-financed bubble. Sound familiar?
The big worry to me is the 10 of millions of more single males than available females. What are a bunch of Horn*y and angry guys going to do? Fight a war.
The big worry to me is the 10 of millions of more single males than available females. What are a bunch of Horn*y and angry guys going to do? Fight a war.
Yeah pretty much. I have a feeling China is going to try some assertiveness out for size within a decade or two. I don't think it will end well for them though since their whole economy is so dependent on exports.
"Third, the Chinese model requires cheap labor as well as cheap capital to produce cheap goods. The bottom has fallen out of the Chinese birthrate; by 2020 the average Chinese will be nearly as old as the average American, but will have achieved nowhere near the level of education to add as much value. The result will be a labor shortage in both qualitative and quantitative terms."
"Finally, internal tensions will break the current system. More than 1 billion Chinese live in households whose income is below $2,000 a year (with 600 million below $1,000 a year). The government knows this and is trying to shift resources to the vast interior comprising the bulk of China. But this region is so populous and so poor — and so vulnerable to minor shifts in China’s economic fortunes — that China simply lacks the resources to cope."
And they still don't have the education/innovation of South Korea/Japan.
Not even close. It cracks me up when I see the occasional thread about something in China and someone always chimes in with how they have passed the US in technology and innovation.
China's industry and education system aren't geared for innovation. They can copy stuff and make it cheaper.
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8,309 posts, read 38,774,074 times
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Originally Posted by wanneroo
Yeah pretty much. I have a feeling China is going to try some assertiveness out for size within a decade or two. I don't think it will end well for them though since their whole economy is so dependent on exports.
The US isn't going to be able to challenge Chinese assertiveness in the next decade or two. We're broke. Military strength is really economic strength and this nation, quite simply, doesn't have the money to get into a p*ssing contest with a dog the size of China over principles.
Not even close. It cracks me up when I see the occasional thread about something in China and someone always chimes in with how they have passed the US in technology and innovation.
China's industry and education system aren't geared for innovation. They can copy stuff and make it cheaper.
Very true! That is the worry about Indian engineers, right now they are good at repetative tasks but if they start to learn innovation we arein trouble.
The US isn't going to be able to challenge Chinese assertiveness in the next decade or two. We're broke. Military strength is really economic strength and this nation, quite simply, doesn't have the money to get into a p*ssing contest with a dog the size of China over principles.
It's a lot easier to show spectacular growth when your economy is still transforming from state planned with majority rural peasants dealie to a more modern market economy.
China is without a doubt an emerging economic superpower but go look at average wages, GDP, productivity, etc. versus United States you might be surprised at how much the China hype has clouded the stark difference in the two countries.
Very true! That is the worry about Indian engineers, right now they are good at repetative tasks but if they start to learn innovation we arein trouble.
I've been more worried that men in India will realize mustaches aren't really fashionable any more.
Location: Visitation between Wal-Mart & Home Depot
8,309 posts, read 38,774,074 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slackjaw
It's a lot easier to show spectacular growth when your economy is still transforming from state planned with majority rural peasants dealie to a more modern market economy.
China is without a doubt an emerging economic superpower but go look at average wages, GDP, productivity, etc. versus United States you might be surprised at how much the China hype has clouded the stark difference in the two countries.
I would not dispute that there is rampant exploitation of smoke and mirrors in China's rap sheet and it may be the case that they can't afford to "test assertiveness", which is good because we can't afford to put up anything other than a token resistance. I don't think we could absorb the costs of a campaign in Iran without ditching Iraq and Afghanistan.
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