China Passes Japan as World's 2nd Largest Economy (2015, investing, recession)

[Member1]

China Passes Japan to become World's Number 2 Economy - NYTimes

[Wonderful Jellal]

normal, the Japan's has been very weak in the 90s and beginning of 2000s.
And the recession has been hard for it (-4.8%, or the double of the US GDP loss), and now the recovery of Japan is weak too.
This country demographics problems will sign the end of the growth in Japan.
Japan will be certainly surpassed by India and Brazil too.

[Malloric]

Originally Posted by PVT Martinez GHS36

The sleeping dragon is waking up It is predicted that by 2015 China will become the World's number 1 economy.

By whom? That's always the question, isn't it. In this case, a rhetorical one as no one of any intelligence predicts that China will nearly double its GDP within two years.

[fairlaker]

Um, the article in the OP is from mid-2010. China has many, many problems to resolve, and they are running out of low-hanging fruit while the one-child policy is slowly creating worse demographics than Japan's. Twenty years ago, it was Japan that was going to gobble up the US. How did that work out? Don't expect China to fare any better.

[andywire]

Population of Japan: 127.6 million...

Population of China: 1.3 billion...

This is news why?

Actually, this shows exactly this is not news at all.

[cpg35223]

Originally Posted by fairlaker

Um, the article in the OP is from mid-2010. China has many, many problems to resolve, and they are running out of low-hanging fruit while the one-child policy is slowly creating worse demographics than Japan's. Twenty years ago, it was Japan that was going to gobble up the US. How did that work out? Don't expect China to fare any better.

One of the worst things one can do is look at a past trend line and extrapolate future results. To your point, China has huge problems. The biggest one is the demographic curve. Right now, at this very moment, China has the highest working age population that it ever will. It is set to fall off a cliff so sharply that China will lose 200,000,000 workers by 2050. Given that the entire Chinese economy is based off cheap labor (As opposed to the Japanese economy which thrived off technological innovation), this creates a serious dilemma. Small wonder roughly 8% of the Chinese GDP flees the country every year in the form of overseas investment. If China were the land of opportunity, Chinese would be investing in their own country.

[dv1033]

Originally Posted by cpg35223

One of the worst things one can do is look at a past trend line and extrapolate future results. To your point, China has huge problems. The biggest one is the demographic curve. Right now, at this very moment, China has the highest working age population that it ever will. It is set to fall off a cliff so sharply that China will lose 200,000,000 workers by 2050. Given that the entire Chinese economy is based off cheap labor (As opposed to the Japanese economy which thrived off technological innovation), this creates a serious dilemma. Small wonder roughly 8% of the Chinese GDP flees the country every year in the form of overseas investment. If China were the land of opportunity, Chinese would be investing in their own country.

I disagree. China will undergo many of the same ills America faced as it deals with environmental, labor, cultural, and economic issues (to name a few).

[s1alker]

Of course China will be #1. They have near unlimited supplies of disposable cheap labor. There are no labor or environmental laws. Corps can basically get away with murder and keep their profits high.

[Hoonose]

Originally Posted by dv1033

I disagree. China will undergo many of the same ills America faced as it deals with environmental, labor, cultural, and economic issues (to name a few).

They surely will as after the Third Plenum have now decided to go with their people. i.e. a more consumer oriented society and economy. Over the next few years we should see less massive crony infrastructure and industrial investment. A lower GDP growth rate. And more with programs directed towards the people. Workers, work place, environment, social issues and supports.

[fairlaker]

Put another way, 70% of US GDP comes from PCE -- personal consumption expenditures. In China, the government has been struggling to drive that number above 50%.