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Old 11-05-2010, 08:31 AM
 
Location: El Paso, TX
3,421 posts, read 4,181,702 times
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I am a boomer. My generation grew up with I consider a different cultural difference on how to live life and how to work looking into the future. We also believe in living life as we best see fit and on personal choices. We also do not accept other inferring choices on us just as the present generation may say as stated in some of the messages.

We as a generation grew up still with many of the views of what is still called "The Greatest Generation". This Generation instilled in us some good and some bad things I should say. We like to work and invest in our future. We did not demand our parent move out of the way so we could have jobs or whatever. We found ways for us to make it into the world. We built some of the greatness of America. The present generation need to make their own mark without saying "Old man, get out of the way so I can have a job". We do not have what I see a sense of entitlement on todays young generation. We worked hard to reach the achievement levels we had. I will say that to some degree we contributed to the ME attitude that is very pervasive today but every generation does not realize the good and the bad we leave as legacy on the next generation.

You want a job? Go ahead and work hard for it. Learn to save money, not buy everything on credit and later expect the government, the rich, the corporations, etc. to pay for the lack of discipline in paying your debts. Got to college or trade school. I still pretty much pay everything cash the only exception being a home. I first save and pay for what I want. If I did not have the money to buy something I waited until I can afford it. I also live within my means. These concepts seem to be lost now. When I was young and my car broke, I hitch hiked to work in the mornings, hitch hiked to college after work, and hitch hiked from college to home. I tell people about this and they look at me as if I was crazy. I fixed the car when I could. In the meantime I rented a car once a month so I could take my wife and two daughters to buy groceries for the month, go to the movies, the park or whatever. Living within your means helped us and now I can afford things and enjoy things more because I am not worried about owing everything I have. So go find your way in the world without depending on anyone and I assure you that you will be so proud of yourself when you see what you achieved later in life, If our parents became the Greatest Generation after they went through a depression and WWII, you can do the same now that you have more programs and benefits than they did, take care.
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Old 11-05-2010, 09:46 AM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,810 posts, read 17,852,850 times
Reputation: 9447
user_ID wrote:
Also, you are completely making up a human bias, people have no bias towards seeking a proper statistical analysis, rather the opposite. People have a tendency to put more weight on their personal experiences then is logically called for, that is why we have to be very careful when dealing with generalizations. Some people, over years of effort, have trained themselves to not to fall victim to common human psychological biases and others instead bath in them. You want to pretend as if the two are on the same level, but they aren't, that is like suggesting a heroin addict is equivalent to someone that is straight-edge because the latter has a bias against drugs.

Luckily reality favors rationality over irrationality.
You may want to do some further research on your claim that I am making up a human bias. I strongly encourage you to read the works of Stanford Professor William Tiller. It is a well know fact that our DNA contains the cellular memories of our ancestors.

Based on your posts ( which I always enjoy reading by the way ) you yourself appear to be one of those people who exhibit a strong bias towards seeking a proper statistical analysis. It seems that you have given statistical analysis a very prominent position on your pedestal. IMO, there's nothing wrong with that. It is a valid way of evaluating the world....but certainly not the only way. Many of us on this thread are more inclined to TRUST our own experience when it might differ from statistical analysis. That is our CHOICE. You are obviously free to give us what ever label you like that will help you to maintain you air of intellectual superiority, and refer to us as victims to common human psychological biases and others. In this case I am proud to be such a victim. My concept and perception of reality works very well for me. I sincerely hope that you will be able to make that claim when you reach my current age of 61.

BTW..I have been employed as a programmer/analyst for many years. I spend day after day in the realm of databases, charts, spreadsheets, graphs, numbers etc. I must admit that the numbers dont lie....AND....they also fail to tell the WHOLE truth. In my personal life, I rely upon the numbers most of them...with favorable outcomes I might add. It is on those occassions when my gut, heart, intution, or whatever you call it, is in conflict with the numbers, that I have consistently chosen to trust my gut rather than the numbers. While going with my gut has not been infallable, it has served me very well. It has lead me to be in the right place at the right time throughout my life.

Last edited by CosmicWizard; 11-05-2010 at 10:30 AM..
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Old 11-05-2010, 12:19 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,470 posts, read 18,555,058 times
Reputation: 4343
Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
You may want to do some further research on your claim that I am making up a human bias. I strongly encourage you to read the works of Stanford Professor William Tiller. It is a well know fact that our DNA contains the cellular memories of our ancestors.
No, I don't need to do anymore research. I have no idea why you think so called "cellular memories" have anything to do with what I said, clearly you don't understand the issue.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
...you yourself appear to be one of those people who exhibit a strong bias towards seeking a proper statistical analysis.
And...I already addressed this, people that seek objective data instead of falling victim to cognitive biases are doing so very laboriously, it is not something that they do automatically.

But okay, I will go with this, I have bias towards rationality.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
Many of us on this thread are more inclined to TRUST our own experience when it might differ from statistical analysis.
Sure and doing this is irrational and one of the many cognitive biases.

Regardless, you are creating a caricature here of people that "go by the numbers" and never doubt anything. I don't know anybody that operates in this way and I certainly do not. How you interpret "the numbers" is often just as important as "the numbers" themselves, the real question here is whether one is committed to objectively evaluating matters or whether one is going to commit to a subjective and hence irrational analysis. "Gut feelings" are all fine, they can lead you into new directions, but relying on them to provide justification for a position is just irrational and rather silly. It is on this last matter that people here are falling, you guys merely believe that the numbers aren't accurate, nobody has even bothered to provide evidence. In this sense, your way of operating is fundamentally anti-intellectual, there is no way for anybody to refute you because your "gut" tells you that we are wrong.

Anyhow, debating with people that think their gut has a direct connection to the truth is pointless, rational discourse is the only means to deal with disagreements between people. So alright, your gut, god, Allah, decades old memories or whatever tell you that food, etc were not more expensive in the past, there is no way to debate that.
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Old 11-05-2010, 02:11 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles, Ca
2,884 posts, read 5,496,495 times
Reputation: 2753
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id View Post
Sorry, but the east coast is not "primarily rooted in manual labor", California is actually involved in more manufacturing than most east-coast states (LA has one of the biggest manufacturing sectors in the country). Also, comparing California to Vermont makes no sense, compare Vermont to Utah.

Perhaps you should visit the actual east-coast before you start talking about it?


Again you got it all backwards, New York is the financial capital of the US, not California. Washington DC is the home to most federal agencies, etc.


To say it again, Los Angeles has one of the largest manufacturing sectors in the country, apparently you aren't even familiar with the city you live in let alone a region 3,000+ miles away. But as a whole California is a "knowledge economy", areas like Western PA, update NY etc are not, instead they are home to low-skilled jobs.

Anyhow, the area of the country you visited is not even the east-coast, rather its Appalachia. Its much different than the east-coast, the east-coast is far more similar to California than it is to Appalachia in terms of its economy, demographics, etc.

Lastly, most Boomers in California were not born in California and are aware of other areas of the country, not to mention people travel all the time. Its bizarre that you think you're the only person in California that has traveled outside of California, if anybody is in a bubble its you.
-The cities I went through were heavily industrial. When I said, "rooted in manual labor", a city like scranton, pa isn't rooted in manual labor? These cities were founded on iron, coal, railroads.

Syracuse was a major manufacturing area. California and the west is more of a melting pot. There might be more total manufacturing here, but people aren't identified with it here, the way they are in the east. How many 2 or 3 generation factory workers are there in the east vs west?

I don't think it was all appalachia. It was quite varied, that's why I bring it up. The finger lakes aren't really appalachia. The upper east of new york state is different. The Adirondack Mountains aren't really appalachia. As you go east, that area had more of a canadian influence.

"People travel all the time". It doesn't make its way into the media. And it doesnt make its way through the rhetoric you hear all the time. You can't move 5 feet in california without hearing..."Illegals do work natives won't do!" "Without illegal labor, the economy will collapse". And the national media is so divorced from the reality on the east, it's shocking.

The people in the ivory tower are the ones in a bubble. Why did so many academics miss this last '08 crash/recession? Why do they officially declare the recession as "over", when people on the ground know that its continued over a year later?

I think it's safe to say, the average person on the east (appalachia, or real east coast) knows more about economics than many of our fancy phd's or presidential economic advisors.
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Old 11-05-2010, 02:14 PM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,810 posts, read 17,852,850 times
Reputation: 9447
user_id wrote:
Regardless, you are creating a caricature here of people that "go by the numbers" and never doubt anything. I don't know anybody that operates in this way and I certainly do not. How you interpret "the numbers" is often just as important as "the numbers" themselves, the real question here is whether one is committed to objectively evaluating matters or whether one is going to commit to a subjective and hence irrational analysis. "Gut feelings" are all fine, they can lead you into new directions, but relying on them to provide justification for a position is just irrational and rather silly. It is on this last matter that people here are falling, you guys merely believe that the numbers aren't accurate, nobody has even bothered to provide evidence. In this sense, your way of operating is fundamentally anti-intellectual, there is no way for anybody to refute you because your "gut" tells you that we are wrong.
I earn an above average income working with numbers in my job. In no way am I creating a caricature of of people that "go by the numbers". In most situations I am one of them myself. In those situations where my intuition is at odds with the numbers are those occassions when I trust my gut rather than the numbers.

For example, at the time of my last car purchase, I had tracked down what appeared to be a great deal according to the numbers. But I had an uneasy feeling that persuaded me NOT to buy that car. A week later I came back to the same dealership and noticed that the car had been marked down an additional $500. Now it looked like a fantastic deal and I was seriously tempted...BUT...that uneasy feeling in my gut was stiil there, so I decided against the purchase. A friend of mine who was also in the market for another car snapped it up when I told him I decided not to buy it beacause of my uneasy feeling about it. About a month after the 3 year warranty expired, he had to dish out over $3000 for a major repair bill. There's just no way the numbers can predict something like that, but somehow my intuition was picking on something that just didn't FEEL right. Numbers are a fantastic tool, but they only take you so far.

You are certainly welcome to persist in your belief that relying on gut level feelings to provide justification for a position is just irrational and rather silly. But I will say that it has been a most valuable reliance in my own life, saving me thousands of dollars on some occassions, while making me thousands of dollars on other occassion.

Even though I may be silly and irrational in your mind, I am quite comfortable with my choice to rely upon my memory of the past rather than what the numbers say about it. If you prefer to go by the numbers instead of trusting your own experience and perception then so be it. That is your choice. I hope it works as well for you as my silly and irrational way has worked for the first 61 years of my life.

Last edited by CosmicWizard; 11-05-2010 at 02:35 PM..
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Old 11-05-2010, 02:27 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,470 posts, read 18,555,058 times
Reputation: 4343
Quote:
Originally Posted by John23 View Post
-The cities I went through were heavily industrial. When I said, "rooted in manual labor", a city like scranton, pa isn't rooted in manual labor? These cities were founded on iron, coal, railroads.
This isn't what you said, you stated that the east-coast was "primarily rooted in manual labor", which is extremely inaccurate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by John23 View Post
but people aren't identified with it here, the way they are in the east. How many 2 or 3 generation factory workers are there in the east vs west?
I don't care what people "identify" with, I care about the realities. Anyhow, you do realize that California is a young state compared to those on the east-coast right? You don't find 2-3 generation factory workers here because the factories didn't exist 2-3 generations ago.

Quote:
Originally Posted by John23 View Post
And the national media is so divorced from the reality on the east, it's shocking.
Funny, considering that the national media is mostly located on the east...

Quote:
Originally Posted by John23 View Post
Why do they officially declare the recession as "over", when people on the ground know that its continued over a year later?
"They", as in economists, don't determine this, rather it is determined by NBER and they are using the "official" definition of a recession. In economics the end of a recession does not mean a return to the "good-times", it simply means the economy has stopped declining. Guess where NBER is located? Yep....east-coast.

Quote:
Originally Posted by John23 View Post
the average person on the east (appalachia, or real east coast) knows more about economics than many of our fancy phd's or presidential economic advisors.
I really think you need to get out more.
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Old 11-05-2010, 08:46 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,470 posts, read 18,555,058 times
Reputation: 4343
Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
In those situations where my intuition is at odds with the numbers are those occassions when I trust my gut rather than the numbers.
Right, so, as I said there is no point in having discourse with you, your gut does not provide any evidence to me or anybody else. You may as well say the great pumpkin told you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
But I had an uneasy feeling that persuaded me NOT to buy that car.
..... About a month after the 3 year warranty expired, he had to dish out over $3000 for a major repair bill.
Let me get this straight, you think your gut predicted what would happen to this particular car in 3 years? Hahaha....

Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
You are certainly welcome to persist in your belief that relying on gut level feelings to provide justification for a position is just irrational and rather silly.
Yes, I will, unfortunately some of us don't have psychic guts that can predict the future. Us mere mortals have to rely on our brains.
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Old 11-07-2010, 08:39 AM
 
9,840 posts, read 20,934,792 times
Reputation: 7669
Quote:
Originally Posted by newenglandgirl View Post

* I heard last night on the news that any tax on an income of $500K per year (if there were to be one!) only applies to their first $100K. Funny how that doesn't work for the rest of us.
Well you heard wrong, get your facts straight.
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Old 11-07-2010, 08:46 AM
 
Location: Wherabouts Unknown!
7,810 posts, read 17,852,850 times
Reputation: 9447
user_id wrote:
Let me get this straight, you think your gut predicted what would happen to this particular car in 3 years? Hahaha....
Again, you are either NOT reading my words or simply making them say what you want them to say. What I ACTUALLY said was this:
There's just no way the numbers can predict something like that, but somehow my intuition was picking on something that just didn't FEEL right. Numbers are a fantastic tool, but they only take you so far.
Perhaps it was my own typo that threw you off. What I meant to write was somehow my intuition was picking up something that just didn't FEEL right.

I was not thinking in terms of prediction, only that something didn't FEEL right about purchasing that car. Rather than making a prediction, my gut was guiding me on how to act on at that specific time. At no time did I have a thought that this car is likely to break down and cost 3 $3000. My thought was more like....something just doesn't feel right about this. That was good enough for me. In that situation, I had no requirement for proof or evidence.


user_id wrote:
as I said there is no point in having discourse with you, your gut does not provide any evidence to me or anybody else. You may as well say the great pumpkin told you.

The great pumpkin is telling me that you don't really believe the part about there being no point in having discourse with me becuse you keep it going anyway. The great pumpkin says: Actions speak louder than words.

Last edited by CosmicWizard; 11-07-2010 at 09:30 AM..
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Old 11-07-2010, 03:44 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,470 posts, read 18,555,058 times
Reputation: 4343
Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
Perhaps it was my own typo that threw you off. What I meant to write was somehow my intuition was picking up something that just didn't FEEL right.
Right, but your evidence for that is that something happened to the car 3 years after it was purchased, so yes, you are suggesting that somehow your "gut" was able to predict the future. There are few if any mechanical problems that can exist for 3 years without causing a major problem, hence whatever happened to the car happened after it was purchased.

Anyhow, you are just exhibiting more irrational thought patterns. The probability that some major repair will be required on a car within 3 years is not that low, hence using a repair in this time frame as evidence that your gut can mysterious lead you to good actions is rather silly. This is not to mention that the fate of the car was not predetermined when it was on the lot, how your friend treated the car is a big factor.


Quote:
Originally Posted by CosmicWizard View Post
The great pumpkin is telling me that you don't really believe the part about there being no point in having discourse with me becuse you keep it going anyway.
Of course I do, people do pointless things all the time and I'm not coming to city-data to have serious debate. The point of my comment is that, given your affinity for irrationality, serious debate can't occur. Serious debate can only occur between parties that have commited themselves to rational discourse, appeals to the gut, great pumpkin, etc need not apply.
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