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Old 11-11-2010, 02:18 PM
 
Location: Near a river
16,042 posts, read 20,507,786 times
Reputation: 15749

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Quote:
Originally Posted by hnsq View Post


I don't understand exactly what your point is.

Correlation does not imply causation.


Well we all sort of went off the beam on this thread. Read the Original Post on page 1. The subject is "Boomers to Never Stop Working."

Somehow we managed to get into a ridiculous debate about statistics, which, as we all know, have their biased origins.

As for the TOPIC, there's plenty in the news (if you believe the news) to support the fact that many boomers may have to keep working forever, or at least years past when they wanted to retire, either out of necessity or out of fear.


For many baby boomers, working longer may be the only retirement option - The Boston Globe

"According to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, 51 percent of US households are at risk of not having enough money to maintain their standard of living in retirement."

Now this 51% figure should not be taken at face value, b/c we do not know how the study was conducted, but it's easy to find research to more or less support the findings.

What was not addressed in the OP is the factor of those wanting to continue to work, financial necessity or not.

At any rate, as for the financial aspects:

From the McKinsey Quarterly

"New research from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) shows that there is only one realistic way to prevent aging boomers from experiencing a significant decline in their living standards and becoming a multidecade drag on US and world economic growth. Boomers will have to continue working beyond the traditional retirement age, and that will require important changes in public policy, business practices, and personal behavior. These adjustments have become even more urgent with the recent financial turmoil, which has sharply reduced the home values and financial investments of millions of boomers just as they approach retirement."
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Old 11-11-2010, 02:25 PM
 
Location: Near a river
16,042 posts, read 20,507,786 times
Reputation: 15749
Quote:
Originally Posted by hnsq View Post
You seemed to have skirted my point entirely. Assuming due diligence is adequately performed, would you go with a charity whose contribution percentage is lower simply based on the emotional appeal (video campaigns, etc.) or one with a higher contribution percentage which put little effort into the qualitative marketing draws?
You seem to have missed his point. Point: you can finagle figures any which way to look good (the Mafia does it all the time and many a CPA knows how to cook the books). Having been also a grant writer, I can tell you how many times I "creatively presented" budgets (not lying, just arranging wording and figures and pie chart percentages) to make a nonprofit look good.

There's the facts and numbers, and there's how one arrives at (gathers) and presents the facts and numbers. Boy, to have a cushy analyst's job!
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Old 11-11-2010, 02:25 PM
 
9,856 posts, read 14,325,727 times
Reputation: 5461
Quote:
Originally Posted by newenglandgirl View Post
You seem to have missed his point. Point: you can finagle figures any which way to look good (the Mafia does it all the time and many a CPA knows how to cook the books). Having been also a grant writer, I can tell you how many times I "creatively presented" budgets (not lying, just arranging wording and figures and pie chart percentages) to make a nonprofit look good.

There's the facts and numbers, and there's how one arrives at (gathers) and presents the facts and numbers. Boy, to have a cushy analyst's job!
As I have stated time and time again (and as you have blatantly ignored time and time again), context is essential. Numbers without the equations that created the numbers are worthless. Do you understand this? I am tired of repeating this point simply to have you ignore it!

Quote:
Originally Posted by newenglandgirl View Post
Well we all sort of went off the beam on this thread. Read the Original Post on page 1. The subject is "Boomers to Never Stop Working."

Somehow we managed to get into a ridiculous debate about statistics, which, as we all know, have their biased origins.

As for the TOPIC, there's plenty in the news (if you believe the news) to support the fact that many boomers may have to keep working forever, or at least years past when they wanted to retire, either out of necessity or out of fear.


For many baby boomers, working longer may be the only retirement option - The Boston Globe

"According to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, 51 percent of US households are at risk of not having enough money to maintain their standard of living in retirement."

Now this 51% figure should not be taken at face value, b/c we do not know how the study was conducted, but it's easy to find research to more or less support the findings.

What was not addressed in the OP is the factor of those wanting to continue to work, financial necessity or not.

At any rate, as for the financial aspects:

From the McKinsey Quarterly

"New research from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) shows that there is only one realistic way to prevent aging boomers from experiencing a significant decline in their living standards and becoming a multidecade drag on US and world economic growth. Boomers will have to continue working beyond the traditional retirement age, and that will require important changes in public policy, business practices, and personal behavior. These adjustments have become even more urgent with the recent financial turmoil, which has sharply reduced the home values and financial investments of millions of boomers just as they approach retirement."
Back to the original point of the thread, I can't help but wonder, is raising the traditional retirement age such a bad thing? The average life expectancy in America in 1950 was 66 years old. The retirement age as defined by the SSA in 1950 was...66 years old. See a correlation? Today the average life expectancy is a bit over 75 years old, and yet the retirement age as defined by the SSA is 67 years old. To proportionally keep today's retirement age the same as it was in 1950, we would have to increase it by 8 years.

Proportionally, those in the workforce today work a lower percentage of their lives than people did 50 years ago.

What do you think?
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Old 11-11-2010, 02:35 PM
 
Location: Near a river
16,042 posts, read 20,507,786 times
Reputation: 15749
Quote:
Originally Posted by hnsq View Post
Back to the original point of the thread, I can't help but wonder, is raising the traditional retirement age such a bad thing? The average life expectancy in America in 1950 was 66 years old. The retirement age as defined by the SSA in 1950 was...66 years old. See a correlation? Today the average life expectancy is a bit over 75 years old, and yet the retirement age as defined by the SSA is 67 years old. To proportionally keep today's retirement age the same as it was in 1950, we would have to increase it by 8 years.

Proportionally, those in the workforce today work a lower percentage of their lives than people did 50 years ago.

What do you think?
What is the matter with a civilization that only values work? Would YOU want to work till you drop? One of my sons is in construction. He is only 26 years old and he makes good money but he works his behind off in all kinds of weather outdoors, including brutal New England temperatures. He does not have a cushy desk job. He's already been working at this for 6 years and it is physically demanding work, as many jobs are today believe it or not. So is he supposed to work 49 more years at this?

There are other ways for older people to contribute to society, for compensation past age 62. It's just that our society completely lacks any imagination in that regard. People should be able to retire at 62 and then go on to do lower-wage or voucher-paid (for taxes) work in the schools. American kids are pitifully behind emerging nations in math, and the h.s. drop out rate is unbelievable. Older folks could enroll in an "American Education Corps" and be compensated for it by...yes, the government, as long as the government is mandating and controlling public schools.

No one who has a really physically demanding job should have to work past 62, nor should those with debilitating health problems. There's plenty they can do for full social security in their 60s.
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Old 11-11-2010, 02:43 PM
 
9,856 posts, read 14,325,727 times
Reputation: 5461
Quote:
Originally Posted by newenglandgirl View Post
What is the matter with a civilization that only values work? Would YOU want to work till you drop? One of my sons is in construction. He is only 26 years old and he makes good money but he works his behind off in all kinds of weather outdoors, including brutal New England temperatures. He does not have a cushy desk job. He's already been working at this for 6 years and it is physically demanding work, as many jobs are today believe it or not. So is he supposed to work 49 more years at this?

There are other ways for older people to contribute to society, for compensation past age 62. It's just that our society completely lacks any imagination in that regard. People should be able to retire at 62 and then go on to do lower-wage or voucher-paid (for taxes) work in the schools. American kids are pitifully behind emerging nations in math, and the h.s. drop out rate is unbelievable. Older folks could enroll in an "American Education Corps" and be compensated for it by...yes, the government, as long as the government is mandating and controlling public schools.

No one who has a really physically demanding job should have to work past 62, nor should those with debilitating health problems. There's plenty they can do for full social security in their 60s.
I work an average of 75-80 hours/week (more than that and I start to burn out mentally), and wouldn't have it any other way. I couldn't stand to have the 'working for the weekend' attitude. I want my work to mean something, and when work is meaningful, it becomes enjoyable, and when work is enjoyable, you don't WANT to stop working. That being said, If you wish to discuss the intrinsic value of work, PM me. I would love to have that conversation, however I feel that might bring us off topic a bit more than we already are.
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Old 11-11-2010, 02:58 PM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,768,443 times
Reputation: 5185
Quote:
Originally Posted by hnsq View Post
You seemed to have skirted my point entirely. Assuming due diligence is adequately performed, would you go with a charity whose contribution percentage is lower simply based on the emotional appeal (video campaigns, etc.) or one with a higher contribution percentage which put little effort into the qualitative marketing draws?
Now you are trying to confuse emotions with human experience. I do not think anyone is making the argument that emotion is a substitution for facts. I believe the argument was, that in decision making human experience including intuition, can be just as useful or even more so than data and figures.
I can often tell if a person is lying to me, so long as we are face to face. Can you tell if data has been manipulated by reading it? No you have to perform what you call "due diligence".
Often times due diligence includes aspects of human experience in order to verify the data is factual. Investigations to obtain truth are done by interrogation, or what you referred to earlier as word of mouth, which may result in the admission that the data has been falsified.
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Old 11-11-2010, 03:06 PM
 
9,856 posts, read 14,325,727 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
Now you are trying to confuse emotions with human experience. I do not think anyone is making the argument that emotion is a substitution for facts. I believe the argument was, that in decision making human experience including intuition, can be just as useful or even more so than data and figures.
I can often tell if a person is lying to me, so long as we are face to face. Can you tell if data has been manipulated by reading it? No you have to perform what you call "due diligence".
Often times due diligence includes aspects of human experience in order to verify the data is factual. Investigations to obtain truth are done by interrogation, or what you referred to earlier as word of mouth, which may result in the admission that the data has been falsified.
I think we might be on the same page. I think the data should come first, but context is essential. Numbers simply for the sake of having numbers can be misleading. I guess what I really dislike is the guy who has a 'gut feeling' about something, but absolutely nothing to back it up. While data analysis (variance/regression analysis) can often point out inconsistencies and misinformation, I am definitely not saying we should sit in boxes staring at numbers and nothing else.
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Old 11-11-2010, 03:11 PM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,768,443 times
Reputation: 5185
Quote:
Originally Posted by hnsq View Post
Back to the original point of the thread, I can't help but wonder, is raising the traditional retirement age such a bad thing? The average life expectancy in America in 1950 was 66 years old. The retirement age as defined by the SSA in 1950 was...66 years old. See a correlation? Today the average life expectancy is a bit over 75 years old, and yet the retirement age as defined by the SSA is 67 years old. To proportionally keep today's retirement age the same as it was in 1950, we would have to increase it by 8 years.

Proportionally, those in the workforce today work a lower percentage of their lives than people did 50 years ago.

What do you think?
This is a perfect example of "assuming" and not doing due diligence. Your assumption here is that the "average" life expectancy is the same as average age of death, which is a manipulation of the data.
In 1940, life expectancy at birth was only 63.6 years, compared to 75.1 in 1990. But the main reason it was so low, was continued high rates of infant and young child mortality. A large majority of people who made it to age 5 also made it to age 65. What you are measuring is actually infant mortality and not average age of death. Life expectancy at age 65 was a robust 77.7 years in 1940. The beneficiaries of Social Security could expect to draw payments for an average of 12 years.
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Old 11-11-2010, 03:18 PM
 
9,856 posts, read 14,325,727 times
Reputation: 5461
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
This is a perfect example of "assuming" and not doing due diligence. Your assumption here is that the "average" life expectancy is the same as average age of death, which is a manipulation of the data.
In 1940, life expectancy at birth was only 63.6 years, compared to 75.1 in 1990. But the main reason it was so low, was continued high rates of infant and young child mortality. A large majority of people who made it to age 5 also made it to age 65. What you are measuring is actually infant mortality and not average age of death. Life expectancy at age 65 was a robust 77.7 years in 1940. The beneficiaries of Social Security could expect to draw payments for an average of 12 years.
Can we please have a conversation? It seems like you are trying to attack me at every turn. That is a major turnoff in any discussion.

My numbers came from the Department of Health and Human Services National Vital Statistics Reports, vol 54., no. 19. Feel free to check for yourself.
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Old 11-11-2010, 03:37 PM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,768,443 times
Reputation: 5185
Quote:
Originally Posted by hnsq View Post
Can we please have a conversation? It seems like you are trying to attack me at every turn. That is a major turnoff in any discussion.

My numbers came from the Department of Health and Human Services National Vital Statistics Reports, vol 54., no. 19. Feel free to check for yourself.
Sorry, not trying to attack you, just trying to show how easy it can be to manipulate data. What you think is being said, is often different than reality. People make fortunes making black look white and vice versa.
The legal profession is so adept at hiding the truth they have their own language. Legal terms often have different meanings than colloquial English.
Don't even get me started on government.
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