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The same thing was said in August about September, June about August, March about May...the list goes on and on for the last 3 years. The funniest was last year when people were claiming the economy would collapse in August, but they made the claim in September.
You never heard me say any of the above.
So if nothing happens in October, will you come back and say you were wrong...o
I will, because I can admit when I am wrong. Will you come back if you are wrong?
This is interesting then, let's provide the parameters of this cyber wager.
aliveandwell, what exactly are you predicting for end of October, you kind of gave a general hint of economic catastrophe could you provide specifics? Dow under 8k? US defaults? Cannibalism in the streets?
This is interesting then, let's provide the parameters of this cyber wager.
aliveandwell, what exactly are you predicting for end of October, you kind of gave a general hint of economic catastrophe could you provide specifics? Dow under 8k? US defaults? Cannibalism in the streets?
LoL. If i got $50 every time some one swore the economy would collapse, I would be a millionaire by now.
LoL. If i got $50 every time some one swore the economy would collapse, I would be a millionaire by now.
The CD doomsayers have been predicting the imminent collapse of civilization as we know it for quite some time now. Right through 2009, when I and a few other intrepid CD investors were making loadsa money, they were telling us how we were going to lose it all.
And right through 2010 too. Although they are closer in 2010 than they were in 2009. In 2009 I made 46% return on capital So far this year it is only 8%
Hopefully, guns, ammo and canned goods hold their value because that is what the doomsayers have invested in
Hopefully, guns, ammo and canned goods hold their value because that is what the doomsayers have invested in
I was under the impression they were hoarding gold, thinking that there will be some Mad-Max type world but they'll be fine since they have soft shiny metal so others will gladly give them anything they want.
Bonus = if building something that needs to collect electricity you are all set.
This is interesting then, let's provide the parameters of this cyber wager.
aliveandwell, what exactly are you predicting for end of October, you kind of gave a general hint of economic catastrophe could you provide specifics? Dow under 8k? US defaults? Cannibalism in the streets?
Not predicting a major crash and never said that. However, I feel with the continued unemployment to either stay at their current levels or a slight variation one way or the other, continued foreclosure issues, housing prices still, slowly falling, the rubber will eventually hit the road.
Having said that, last month insider trading was 270 to 1 selling, maybe they know something we don't, at least they know more about their companies than any of us.
The Fed also continues to monetize the debt, that cannot continue either just to keep rates low.
I think there will be a correction, not a crash, no doomsday nonsense, but the Dow could be close to 9000 and the S&P near 900. Enough to change the playing field but not an all out "the sky is falling".
I will be back towards the end of October and either be right or wrong and admit it either way.
I actually hope Subsound is right and I am wrong, I am invested in both bonds and equities.
Why is it that the markets loudest cheerleaders are usually in the crowd that really benefitted by the explosive growth of it? Could it be the prospect of more trillions of dollars worth of bailouts should be the good news all market fans have been waiting for. To characterize the"'economy"as something tangible complete with a steering wheel but no brakes is quite a popularly held view, blaming each white house administration for the lack of navigational skills while cheering Wall Streets take it to the limit attitude has brought about a peculiar kind of socio/economic cult that subscribes to the notion of a never ending economic growth.
The funny thing is some if not most of those in that cult will and have openly admonished those people who were spending like there's no tomorrow, or carrying on about personal responsibility for working people while giving those on Wall Street a pass. Are we to believe that the power people in this corporatized state circus will really become responsible now because new legislation was passed, I for one don't believe the market metrics are showing the huge consequences of our spend and pretend propped up financial system.
The american GDP is huge, still, but when you have the biggest operators trying to build empires on ever so slim a margin you can bet that it won't take much in the way of reduced revenue to catch up with that diminishing bottom line. Like a punch drunk fighter our system can go the distance but lose on points, most great cultures didn't just disappear overnight, like the old saying, "it takes time to ruin a civilization, but time is all it takes." When someone can tell me where/when we are going to get the money that is expected to pay these horrendous debts then I'll be satisfied that we are indeed on the road to financial recovery. Until then we can rest assured that the present administration and a cabal of it's corporate beneficiaries will be gettin theirs while the unemployed try to make sense of the medias proclamations of the arrival of an economic recovery.
Why is it that the markets loudest cheerleaders are usually in the crowd that really benefitted by the explosive growth of it?
Everyone benefits from it, either directly (millions of middle class Americans own stock in mutual funds) or indirectly as generally speaking the stock market is a leading indicator of economic health, which is good for all.
Everyone benefits from it, either directly (millions of middle class Americans own stock in mutual funds) or indirectly as generally speaking the stock market is a leading indicator of economic health, which is good for all.
In theory of course, all economies serve the greater majority, the pretend wealth that made up our economy has been of little long term benefit to most, with the exception of those whose fortunes went meteoric from that balloon of debt. I had tried to make a distinction in my post by stating that those who "really" benefit from market excesses, meaning those who made tons of money as opposed to those who just had jobs as a result of market expansion. The "rising tide floats all boats" theory sounds great, it got Ron Reagan the top job in politics and it served as the official apologist to those who were barely getting by waiting for that ultra high tide to float their boat. Generally speaking, market metrics can be interpreted as the culprit that allows the casino mentality to prevail, as witnessed in this last round of pretend economics...
I think it is fair to say that a strong economy helps everyone, sure it would help fat cats at the top most in terms of monetary gain but it makes for consumption, thus demand, thus hiring, etc.
I din't make "tons" (granted relative term) but I stuck with the course contributing as much every months as a I could thru the slide and recovery and it worked out pretty well for me. Now if only my house would stop being worth 10k less every time I look at Zillow.
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