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Old 10-07-2010, 09:11 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,639,309 times
Reputation: 5180

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Quote:
Originally Posted by shaker281 View Post
No, I am saying no one has the information and ability to forecast the future. Even the folks with the most access to the pertinent data are only forecasting (guessing) and there is no clear concensus.
To say there is no consensus, does not mean that there are not those who have been right, and those who have been wrong. On the wrong side we have the usual group of characters. Greenspan, Bernankie, Summers, Geitner, who have been 100% wrong from the beginning. They not only did not see this coming, they have been doing their very best to deny it is even happening. On the other side we have people who have been saying this very thing would happen from the beginning. People like Roubini, Shiller, Taleb, Rogoff. Roach, Whitney, Schiff, and Rajan. So who should we listen to?
Quote:
Where did I say there is no downside to massive debt? I believe I expressed the exact opposite. You should refer to what I write and not make assumptions. Glad you asked so I could clarify though.
Well at least you understand that much.

Quote:
The best and brightest minds are those who have risen to the top in their respective fields after years of education and experience. Some work for private industry, some reside in government positions, some have held jobs in both the public and private sectors. Who do you consider the best and brightest minds? Yourself? Bloggers? People who second guess those making actual decisions and write about it?
See above.




Quote:
I definitely expect an effect from the various stimulus measures that have been taken. TARP, TALF, Bush tax cuts, fed fund rates. Has it solved all the problems? Nope. Has it helped us get through a critical period? I think so. Will we need to take additional steps after the worst is past? Yep. Should those measures include balancing the budget, reducing deficit spending and lowering the national debt. Yes.

I would liken it to a cancer patient who has to take chemotherapy or radiation treatment. The treatment is harmful, but the lesser of two evils. At least they will live to fight another day.

But you failed to ask the most important questions of all:

Is The United States doomed? Are we ready to lie down and give up? Will US ingenuity and efforts fail to win the day? Is there no hope at all?

I say no to all the above. Your posts imply you believe the opposite. Must suck to be you!
Has it solved any of the problems is the proper question, and again the answer is no. Did those actions add to the problems? Yes. In the 80′s $3 of GDP was generated for every $1 of debt. During the stimulus, the ratio was nearly reversed. 800 billion of spent stimulus generated 200 billion of additional GDP.
Your analogy is sorely lacking in that chemotherapy is targeted at killing the cancer. Stimulus on the other hand is not targeted at solving the problems that caused the economic problems to begin with. It is targeted at preserving the wealth of bankers.
As far as your "most important" question, nice try, but before you begin to make an argument, perhaps you would like to justify it by pointing out exactly where I said the US is doomed? If you are going to make up new arguments then start a new thread, the topic of this one is that thing are going to get worse, not that the US is doomed.
And as far as your last sentence, actually it is you, who it is going to suck to be. You see my generation has had opportunities to obtain wealth that only happen once in a hundred years, which by the way, I have taken full advantage of. You on the other hand will be left with the debts and problems caused by decades of irresponsible government and corporate greed. While I live out the remainder of my days in comfort, you will struggle with the devastated economy, dwindling resources, and ever growing government intrusions on your freedoms and rights. Have a nice day.
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Old 10-08-2010, 12:28 AM
 
4,571 posts, read 3,224,588 times
Reputation: 2901
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
...And as far as your last sentence, actually it is you, who it is going to suck to be. You see my generation has had opportunities to obtain wealth that only happen once in a hundred years, which by the way, I have taken full advantage of. You on the other hand will be left with the debts and problems caused by decades of irresponsible government and corporate greed. While I live out the remainder of my days in comfort, you will struggle with the devastated economy, dwindling resources, and ever growing government intrusions on your freedoms and rights. Have a nice day.
Really? I am quite well off. Debt free. Large beautiful home chock full of toys. 401K, IRA, stocks, bonds, 529 plan, full vested pension plan. And I didn't need a "perfect generational storm" to achieve it all.

Yeah, I know when the apocalypse comes it will all be washed away! A plague of locusts upon us! A giant asteroid will strike the earth! Yadda. Yadda. Yadda. If only I taken jimhcom more seriously! Perhaps, I'll build an ark.

One question though. How exactly would taking your warnings more seriously prevent this all from happening? Why don't you start a thread with a step-by-step tutorial?

I have a nice day every day. Thanks for the sentiment.

Last edited by shaker281; 10-08-2010 at 01:07 AM..
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Old 10-08-2010, 08:30 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,639,309 times
Reputation: 5180
Quote:
Originally Posted by shaker281 View Post
Really? I am quite well off. Debt free. Large beautiful home chock full of toys. 401K, IRA, stocks, bonds, 529 plan, full vested pension plan. And I didn't need a "perfect generational storm" to achieve it all.

Yeah, I know when the apocalypse comes it will all be washed away! A plague of locusts upon us! A giant asteroid will strike the earth! Yadda. Yadda. Yadda. If only I taken jimhcom more seriously! Perhaps, I'll build an ark.

One question though. How exactly would taking your warnings more seriously prevent this all from happening? Why don't you start a thread with a step-by-step tutorial?

I have a nice day every day. Thanks for the sentiment.
First of all, for the most part what is going to happen cannot be changed short of the majority in the nation becoming much more financially savvy about what the true problems are. I see little chance of that.
What can be changed is individuals own financial situation that will put them at less risk of being wiped out in the manner millions have already experienced. By being debt free, you have taken the most important step in your own financial preservation. Next is to be aware that the economy has fundamentally changed and we are not returning to the post 2006 economy in the foreseeable future. The amount of debt being carried by private and government entities is staggering. Debt must either be paid or written off/defaulted, it is the 2 choices. Attempting to pay the debts will stifle the economy, while writing off the debts will deflate asset values. We are probably looking at a combination of both. Countries worldwide are engaging in currency wars, trying to devalue their currencies in order to boost exports. Of course the result of this is that it makes imports more expensive. For a nation with a trade surplus like China, this is actually advantageous, for a country like the US who has a trade deficit it can be painful. In short my strategy is to be debt free, pay particular attention to cash flow, be wary of future values of real estate, equities, and currencies, and to lean in the direction of commodities. America is going to become a much more competitive place.
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Old 10-08-2010, 09:36 AM
 
8,265 posts, read 11,211,395 times
Reputation: 4788
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
And as far as your last sentence, actually it is you, who it is going to suck to be. You see my generation has had opportunities to obtain wealth that only happen once in a hundred years, which by the way, I have taken full advantage of. You on the other hand will be left with the debts and problems caused by decades of irresponsible government and corporate greed. While I live out the remainder of my days in comfort, you will struggle with the devastated economy, dwindling resources, and ever growing government intrusions on your freedoms and rights. Have a nice day.
Hah this is mighty presumptuous. Like Shaker we're also completely debt free including a paid off house, we save about 2/3 of our income, on track to retire in our mid-40s, we live pretty easy eat whatever we want lots of international travel etc. but hey thanks for telling me how much it sucks.

This is a new one for me... doom by proxy. You are so obsessed with negativity that you even have to project doom and misery onto others who are doing well and quite content. Wow.
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Old 10-08-2010, 10:05 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,639,309 times
Reputation: 5180
Quote:
Originally Posted by slackjaw View Post
Hah this is mighty presumptuous. Like Shaker we're also completely debt free including a paid off house, we save about 2/3 of our income, on track to retire in our mid-40s, we live pretty easy eat whatever we want lots of international travel etc. but hey thanks for telling me how much it sucks.

This is a new one for me... doom by proxy. You are so obsessed with negativity that you even have to project doom and misery onto others who are doing well and quite content. Wow.
If I remember right, it was I who was personally attacked first. I simply returned the sentiment, and did not even make it personal, but as a result of the economy.

Funny how people let their personal prejudices affect their sense of fairness.
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Old 10-08-2010, 10:13 AM
 
1,113 posts, read 2,037,258 times
Reputation: 839
I've lived in the third world for short periods of time. Most Americans are spoiled brats, they just don't realize it.

We've got it made in the hardest of times compared to many people in the world who don't have a pot to **** in.

The Greatest Generation wouldn't have whined so much. America, in general... hasn't "earned this".

Considering the 8 year shrub debacle had the USA headed for a 2nd great depression, I'd say we're doing pretty good.
People can just whine a lot easier with the click, click... internets.
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Old 10-08-2010, 10:14 AM
 
8,265 posts, read 11,211,395 times
Reputation: 4788
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
If I remember right, it was I who was personally attacked first. I simply returned the sentiment, and did not even make it personal, but as a result of the economy.
Edit = nevermind, let's move on.

Last edited by slackjaw; 10-08-2010 at 10:29 AM..
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Old 10-08-2010, 10:54 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,639,309 times
Reputation: 5180
Quote:
Originally Posted by SacalaitWhisperer View Post
I've lived in the third world for short periods of time. Most Americans are spoiled brats, they just don't realize it.

We've got it made in the hardest of times compared to many people in the world who don't have a pot to **** in.

The Greatest Generation wouldn't have whined so much. America, in general... hasn't "earned this".

Considering the 8 year shrub debacle had the USA headed for a 2nd great depression, I'd say we're doing pretty good.
People can just whine a lot easier with the click, click... internets.
The greatest generation grew up in depression, and their sense of reality reflected the despair they experienced. They took responsibility.
Today’s generations grew up in prosperity, and their sense of reality is that everything is easy and has been for their whole life. They have been rewarded for their irresponsibility. Many borrowed or inherited their wealth. Because they cannot even conceive of hard times, or sacrifice, they call themselves optimists.
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Old 10-08-2010, 11:08 AM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 76,787,344 times
Reputation: 27652
Today's unemployment report didn't show healthy trends...

-P/T work increased
-discouraged workers increased
-previous months numbers adjusted higher..more job losses than projected.

While not huge numbers it still doesn't indicate that there is an upward trend forming.
Seems we're just bouncing along the bottom..like an "L" shaped recovery.
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Old 10-08-2010, 11:43 AM
 
10,854 posts, read 8,497,483 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
Not really IMO. What we now thign of as the miidle class by living standards might be different . But the amount need to be miidle class and that standard has and can change. Certainyl a middle class home has no comparison to one just 30 years ago.The modern middle class that is upward mobile is pretty much a post war invention. It satrted with massive expansion especaily when western europe was basically broke both winners and losers.I grewup in the 50-60's and my family was upper middle class i income. I am pretty sold middle class but not upper. My satndard of living is far above anything my parents experienced. Disposabe income is a far higher per centage really.
The fact is more workers care competing for labor ON A GLOBAL SCALE. The dirty little secret that NOBODY will tell the American wage earner is that they are no longer PRICE COMPETITIVE with other workers around the world. A worker in a solar panel factory in the United States gets $27.00 an hour, the same worker in a Chinese factory gets $1.80. Jobs for researchers and engineers in India and China pay 1/3 or less than an American worker in a similar occupation get. If capital is allowed to flow freely it ALWAYS flows to where their is the greatest return on investment given an investor's risk tolerance. The biggest reason this recover has been so slow is that right now it simply makes more sense to ship your dollars to China, Viet Nam, Australia, India and other high growth emerging market countries than it does here in the United States.

This is NOT just a recession this is also an economic restructuring asset prices and wages are being RECALIBRATED based on an entirely new set of global economic dynamics.
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